25nl AA vs huge whale , ugly river

villain is 84/4 doesn't fold to cbets . Near the start of the session taking another shot at 25nl having ground back the losses from the first shot.


Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: $54.23 (216.9 bb)
Hero (UTG): $25 (100 bb)
MP: $16.24 (65 bb)
CO: $25 (100 bb)
BTN: $10.76 (43 bb)
SB: $23.82 (95.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Ahttp://pokertools.holdemmanager.com/...ons/heart4.gif Ahttp://pokertools.holdemmanager.com/...s/diamond4.gif
Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, SB calls $0.90, BB folds

Flop: ($2.25) 5http://pokertools.holdemmanager.com/...cons/club4.gif Jhttp://pokertools.holdemmanager.com/...ons/heart4.gif 9http://pokertools.holdemmanager.com/...cons/club4.gif (2 players)
SB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $2.75, SB calls $2.25

Turn: ($7.75) 9http://pokertools.holdemmanager.com/...ons/spade4.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.50, SB calls $4.50

River: ($16.75) Jhttp://pokertools.holdemmanager.com/...cons/club4.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ???

just about the worse card that could come was how it felt when i saw it .Just couldn't see a hand that he calls down with, that i beat on the river and being such a station couldn't see him folding any piece of this.

Is there value to be had here betting or am i likely value towning myself if I do bet.

Just check it back. He'll call with worse for sure but betting seems pretty bad now. Maybe bet like 1/3 pot to get value from smaller pairs but iunno, seems like there's better spots.

I'd check. Sometimes people make A-high calls here because it is the nuts vs all the high card hands that missed the board. But you have 2 blockers to the A so not worth it. Also it looks a bit like he bet a draw or weak hand on the flop, there's the 9 or the flush that he could have.

i can see no value in betting given the flush got there, and all his pair hands now made a full house (or are folding because his pocket pair is now effectively as strong as the board). good point jackvance about the two blockers to his hero-calling range. that's never occurred to me before.

edit: i'd raise slightly more on flop and bet slightly more on turn too. he's still never folding a flush draw or middle pair+. and we build the pot versus his 3-street-calling range

the Ace blocker effect was why i was struggling to see a worse hand that he could call with . If i had KK or maybe QQ I'm guessing that maybe a small bet would get some crying calls from his Acx hands ,but since I couldn't see what worse would call , betting then opens it up for him to then raise . with the flushs and boats out there , I can't see how i can call a raise and huge fish love to slowplay their monsters which must make any bet -ev.

No brainer check. The donk/call on the flop makes this a weak top pair, 2nd pair or flush draw nearly always, and every single one of those got there. No player with these stats is folding a flush on a double-paired board either.

I second the above post, betting is basically turning your hand into bluff when you have close to no fold equity and i highly doubt you have >50% equity vs his continuing range. I'd just take your SD value and hope he has TT or 88 or QT etc.

Devils advocate-

I don't think we're turning our hand into a bluff by betting here. We're betting for value, albeit thin, vs 5x, TT and other smaller pocket pairs and I'm not sure he doesn't have KK, QQ in his range here. The question is whether or not it's too thin.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by supa

Devils advocate-

I don't think we're turning our hand into a bluff by betting here. We're betting for value, albeit thin, vs 5x, TT and other smaller pocket pairs and I'm not sure he doesn't have KK, QQ in his range here. The question is whether or not it's too thin.

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pretty much the reason for posting it.......ii was like "he's a huge fish and will have alll sorts of random junk here" vs will he pay off with any of it , or is he slow playing his flush/boat.

his small pocket pairs he's playing the board on that river so can't see him calling a bet, his 5x hands a 1/5 of them beat us anyway 55,J5 and 95. the smaller 5x hands are playing the board. about the only 5x hands we beat that may call a bet are A5,K5.Hands calling seem to be few and far between.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by supa

Devils advocate-

I don't think we're turning our hand into a bluff by betting here. We're betting for value, albeit thin, vs 5x, TT and other smaller pocket pairs and I'm not sure he doesn't have KK, QQ in his range here. The question is whether or not it's too thin.

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We can probably rule out KK it's more likely he has QQ but it could be discounted too. TT is like the only hand he will call with that you beat, all his flushes, 9x and Jx are calling or raising and he's probably going to fold most of his hands that play the board nearly always. Betting small to target specifically TT may induce a spazz shove as well then we have to fold. Keith himself said he has all kinds of junk so i'm assuming there's plenty of combos of 9's and J's in his range. I think the EV of checking will be higher than betting. I think betting the river will actually be -EV because the action can go:

You bet and get called and lose your bet virtually every time.

You bet and get raised and lose your bet.

You bet and villain folds and you win the pot.

The times villain folds you would have won the pot with a check anyway, and you lose the minimum vs his winning hands when he gives you a free showdown.

There doesn't seem to be any benefits to betting imo.

He probably calls $6 on the turn too.

Hands up to the too small bet on the turn , it was in the first 100 hands of this second shot at 25nl and i was playing a bit scared money, especially the way i quickly lost money in the first shot last month. so I was probably over cautious with my bet sizing. now i've settled down and got used to the different bet sizes being used , hopefully not leaking value like that and actually got some hand samples on some of the villains I'm not quite so in the dark about their tendencies.

Unless you plan on betting $2-$4 on the river, while still being capable of folding if he ends up jamming, this isn't particularly close - definitely check.

We'd have more of a decision if board ran out J59 5 J, then I can see more merits to betting.

Raise flop larger, bet turn larger, check river imo.

If OOP then b/f but in this case easy check wtf

Raise flop a little larger, bet turn significantly larger, check river for reasons given already.

were it Fixed limit, I'd bet/call, but here you can't bet less than $6 and if the villain pushes, you'd have to fold
http://i.imgur.com/9oQIVVb.png

No, I'd check even in limit

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: $54.23 (216.9 bb)
Hero (UTG): $25 (100 bb)
MP: $16.24 (65 bb)
CO: $25 (100 bb)
BTN: $10.76 (43 bb)
SB: $23.82 (95.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A:heart: A:diamond:
Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, SB calls $0.90, BB folds

Flop: ($2.25) 5:club: J:heart: 9:club: (2 players)
SB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $2.75, SB calls $2.25

Turn: ($7.75) 9:spade: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.50, SB calls $4.50

River: ($16.75) J:club: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Results: $16.75 pot ($0.75 rake)
Final Board: 5:club: J:heart: 9:club: 9:spade: J:club:
Hero mucked A:heart: A:diamond: and lost (-$8.25 net)
SB showed 8:club: T:club: and won $16 ($7.75 net)

gotta love fish for chasing their draws and then for slow playing and saving me money when they get there.

He had an OESFD, hardly bad to continue on the flop or turn. The river brings two pair on board, boating a lot of your hands, so betting the river wouldn't be all that great in his shoes. You wouldn't call a river lead from villain would you?

Raise flop larger, bet turn WAY larger (wtf), now check back river. I would shove if the turn were like a 7 instead, by the way.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Stacks

He had an OESFD, hardly bad to continue on the flop or turn. The river brings two pair on board, boating a lot of your hands, so betting the river wouldn't be all that great in his shoes. You wouldn't call a river lead from villain would you?

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With my hand no , wouldn't call a river lead, but would a $4.50 bet by him get better flushs and some 9x hands to fold.

You should very rarely bluff when you have that much showdown value. Especially taking an unconventional line to try to get flush+ hands fold.

Just to elaborate on that point, you should bluff with an x% of hands where x is the amount you can get away with without opening yourself up to some really bad exploitation. So to determine what hands fall into that top x%, we should bluff with whatever hands have the highest delta between expectation of bluffing and expectation of not bluffing. When you're on the river, your equity when your bluff is called is no longer a consideration (it can be in rare cases, but let's ignore that for now), so that only leaves two considerations:

1) How profitable is this specific hand to bluff versus other hands in your range. (This consideration basically comes down to blockers.)

[minus]

2) How much do I stand to make by checking with this hand versus other hands in my range. (This consideration basically comes down to showdown value and how likely villain is to check back).

In villain's case (T8cc), he probably blocks hands that fold more than he blocks hands that call, so this hand doesn't compare favorably to bluffing with other hands in his range. Also, his hand is FARRRR from the nut low, and it's ahead of a lot of hands that might check back, so there's less of a need to bluff this hand than other hands in his range.

So the only way T8cc should make the x% cut of his bluffing range is if he's betting out 100% of the time. This generally happens, though, when your range is strong relative to your opponent's so you can put a lot of pressure on and expect mistakes with a bet regardless of what part of that range you have. Seeing as how villain is facing an UTG raise, a flop donk-raise and a turn continuation bet, it seems crazy to say that a river donk should be the play with 100% of his range.

Check it and on to the next hand!!

I would be so afraid of making a small bet and having them come over the top. It is definitely a pretty nitty check back on the river, but I think I would check it back

We really shouldn't be afraid of him getting us off the best hand with a check/raise. If we're raised, then we're beat very close to 100% of the time. There's no reason why villain would think that a small bet couldn't be Jx because that seems like the exact sort of line (beginning to end of the hand) that Jx would take, and given that villain is passive as all fuck, I'm not gonna give him credit for bluff shoving into a range that includes the nuts.

That being said, we have effective third pair on a 3-flushed river. While it's certainly sometimes true that we should vbet 3 streets with third pair on a 3-flushed river, I don't think we need to worry about it being nitty. So there might be arguments for betting the river, but it's not because it's so insanely nitty that surely it's the wrong play.