aces postflop passive vs nit

villain is 13-7 reg who plays up to 200nl when it runs
he views me as too loose and a bit shit, with legitimate cause based on my game of late where i struggle to keep my vpip below 20. He doesn't sit HU or 3/4 handed with me unless there's an unknown or known fish present though.
he's 61% fold to cbet, 2% raise cbet. Pretty fit/fold.
he bets when checked to sometimes, about 40%, which is low given how strong his cards have to be for him to see a flop.

I don't see a lot of benefit in cbetting here cos he's folding everything I beat except maybe JJ/QQ/KQs, but mostly folding them too. Thoughts on cbet or no?
turn seems a clear value spot, am i wrong? sizing? fold to any raise?

50nl - FTP
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG (51) 103bb
daven (UTG+1) (57) 115bb
MP1 (51) 102bb
MP2 (56) 113bb
CO (67) 133bb
BTN (35) 69bb
SB (52) 104bb
BB (40) 80bb

Blinds: 0/1

Pre-Flop: (1, 8 players) daven is UTG+1 :ad: :ah:
1 fold, daven raises to 2, 2 folds, CO calls 2, 3 folds

Flop: :kd: :6s: :7d: (4, 2 players)
daven checks, CO checks

Turn: :7s: (4, 2 players)
daven bets 3,

So you're betting range on this flop is... what? Specifically flush draws and 89s?

Please bet this flop, and it's not particularly close. It's one thing to check vs a laggy spazz who will actually bluff, but not vs a nit.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

So you're betting range on this flop is... what? Specifically flush draws and 89s?

Please bet this flop, and it's not particularly close. It's one thing to check vs a laggy spazz who will actually bluff, but not vs a nit.

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vs this player i'd probably bet this flop with most of my range as a bluff to get him to fold 99 type of hands. Not sure what the best play is with JJ here, and that's partly why i didn't cbet AA, I could see him auto folding everything that didn't beat AK - but that's probably pretty bad thinking?

What exactly do you think his cbet calling range is?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ImSavy

What exactly do you think his cbet calling range is?

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AK - there are six combos and i think he calls about half the time pre and 3bets half the time
66
77
QQ

I don't see any flush draws in his range cos I hold Ad and he's pretty nit, he mostly has pocket pairs, and he's folding most of these on a K-hi flop cos he's ridiculous.

Then just exploit the fuck out of him by cbetting all the time. Your value against this person doesn't come from getting him to call it comes from getting him to fold. If you have a monster you can slow play it, but I don't feel hugely confident I'm getting much more out of such a nit without him hitting a hand which puts his range ahead of mine so a hand like AA can become borderline useless against him.

Also against such a nit I don't think his range opens up that much when another 7 hits the board. Unless he has a 7.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ImSavy

Then just exploit the fuck out of him by cbetting all the time. Your value against this person doesn't come from getting him to call it comes from getting him to fold. If you have a monster you can slow play it, but I don't feel hugely confident I'm getting much more out of such a nit without him hitting a hand which puts his range ahead of mine so a hand like AA can become borderline useless against him.

Also against such a nit I don't think his range opens up that much when another 7 hits the board. Unless he has a 7.

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yep, i think you're probably right. I was thinking i had one street of value available vs like the 88-QQ in his range. Flop is probably the best place to go for it too if i want to do a bunch of cbetting, my idea was that turn might work better cos he might think i was stabbing with AJ type of hands, and, yeah, he doesn't have many 7x hands that aren't turned quads..
cheers

This would be an auto cbet with your entire range presumably, especially when villain perceives you as loose and a bit shit?

Would be interested to know what people think about a bet/chk/bet line here though to squeeze out 2 streets of value, particularly when villain has so many middle pairs in his range that will presumably fold to a bet flop/bet turn line. Bet flop, c/r turn is also interesting given villain's likely perception of you, because he presumably bets decent kings vs a turn check.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

This would be an auto cbet with your entire range presumably, especially when villain perceives you as loose and a bit shit?

Would be interested to know what people think about a bet/chk/bet line here though to squeeze out 2 streets of value, particularly when villain has so many middle pairs in his range that will presumably fold to a bet flop/bet turn line. Bet flop, c/r turn is also interesting given villain's likely perception of you, because he presumably bets decent kings vs a turn check.

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b/ck/b isn't well balanced with your draws, and it isn't well balanced with trying to price his draws (as we're giving him a free card often).

Often times the best line is the most straightforward line, and deviating beyond that is just FPS.

If he views you as loose and bad, he might call a bit wider on the flop than you think. Peeling a street with 88-QQ, KQs/AK.

Either way, the problem with checking is that he probably isn't going to do much/any bluffing. He'll most likely try to check down all his pairs worse than a King. He might fire 1 street with AQ, but that's pretty much it. So all checking really does is give his worse hands (underpairs) a free card to improve, since you aren't likely to induce any bluffs. Also if he's going to put in 1 street with worse than Kx here, I'd think it's more likely he'd do it here, rather than the turn. Since the turn can bring numerous overcards to his pair that he decides to fold, and since even a nit knows you will have a high cbet % here.

Against a nit, you aren't really going to get more than 1 street with any hand worse than Kx, and you aren't going to induce bluffs all that often. So just bet trying to get the most from his AK/KQs that he won't fold to you.

Villain doesn't get to a 37% fold to flop cbet rate by only continuing with TPTK and sets. Even if we included continuing with TT-QQ on 9-high flops, I still don't think that gets us to 37%. If villain thinks we're loose and crazy and there are only 6 combos that beat us, then just bet until he folds or raises. Even if his range is nothing but AK/77/66, it's +eV to bet 3 streets because he's never folding his 6 combos and he raises his sets at least some of the time.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ImSavy

Then just exploit the fuck out of him by cbetting all the time. Your value against this person doesn't come from getting him to call it comes from getting him to fold. If you have a monster you can slow play it, but I don't feel hugely confident I'm getting much more out of such a nit without him hitting a hand which puts his range ahead of mine so a hand like AA can become borderline useless against him.

Also against such a nit I don't think his range opens up that much when another 7 hits the board. Unless he has a 7.

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I see what ur sayin bout AA here. But since we re oop and nit just flatted . Our ep open range is tight but still not defined cause he flatted. So this seems like we should be talkin ranges instead of our hand..

I would be cbet whole range on fl vs. Nit

In general you want to bet bet bet against fish with hands like this. If you mixed up your play to slowplay just this once, I can appreciate that, just don't fall into the trap of trying to do this more often. You lose a lot of value and your actual cbet become weaker when people can discount really strong hands.