KK on tricky turn.

Printable View

07-03-2013, 11:37 AM
Carroters

KK on tricky turn.

CO is some kind of random passive fish. The MP reg in this hand seems pretty good so far, very solid and is starting tables. I'm kind of torn between c/c, c/f and b/f each has it's own merits.

c/c seems kind of sensible as stuff like 9x 88 TT JJ etc is probably folding a bunch now and he can turn this stuff into a bluff.

c/f seems really nitty with the Ks, but not horrible if he never turns stuff into a bluff when we are darawing dead here some reasonable %. I have no idea what his freuqencies are for turning hands like TT into a bluff here, hopefully not huge with it being 100NL.

b/f seems really shit when we get raised/shipped on. I'm not sure that there's too much worse he can call with, a hand like TsTx is doing pretty horribly vs my betting range.

What's your default here?

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): 108.69 BB
MP: 108.21 BB (VPIP: 30.39, PFR: 25.49, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 106)
CO: 31.92 BB (VPIP: 80.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 22.14, PFR: 18.57, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 144)
SB: 63.63 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.39, PFR: 13.82, 3Bet Preflop: 14.06, Hands: 154)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:spade: K:heart:

Hero raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) 2:spade: 9:heart: 6:spade:
Hero bets 7.25 BB, MP calls 7.25 BB, fold

Turn: (25 BB, 2 players) Q:spade:
Hero checks, MP bets 17 BB, Hero?
07-03-2013, 01:42 PM
pocketfours

Yeah, none of the three options are very bad. I'd c/f, you can't really count Ks as a draw here, especially oop.
07-03-2013, 01:55 PM
Deanglow

If he has only QQ+, 66, 99, ATss, AJss, JTss, and T9ss then we have 42.5%. I think a more realistic range includes 88, TT, JJ w/o a spade, AQhh and AsKx. c/c imo
07-03-2013, 02:04 PM
jackvance

I probably lead turn $17. But it sucks if you get raised so I can understand a check. River you can b/f depending on the board.
07-03-2013, 04:21 PM
griffey24

I'm usually betting turn and if I'm not betting turn it's to c/c.
07-04-2013, 12:06 AM
rpm

Quote:

Originally Posted by griffey24

I'm usually betting turn and if I'm not betting turn it's to c/c.

+1. the fact that P4's and carroters are even considering C/Fing here is eye-opening to say the least.
07-04-2013, 05:35 AM
eugmac

Quote:

Originally Posted by rpm

+1. the fact that P4's and carroters are even considering C/Fing here is eye-opening to say the least.

yeah this.
07-05-2013, 12:27 AM
Carroters

I c/f'ed the turn cos balla
07-13-2013, 01:25 PM
Renton

Bet more on flop, bet turn, c/c now
07-14-2013, 03:59 AM
baudib

please explain why this is a c/f, seems like a clear b/f to me and it's not really that shitty if we get raised because we probably have 0 equity. Because we opened UTG and there's a fish in the hand I can see how his range is going to be stronger on this turn card but this guy is not a nit and seems capable...it's a good card to turn 77/88 type hands into a bluff.
07-15-2013, 11:26 AM
Carroters

I think I expect my equity to be pretty terrible vs his turn continuing range here. I doubt he even calls stuff like TT JJ with a spade as my range looks pretty damn strong. For those who want to c/c what's the plan on a blank river?
08-22-2013, 06:51 AM
Bentley

[QUOTE=Carroters;2158472]CO is some kind of random passive fish. QUOTE]

If he's a random passive fish then why not keep betting?
bet turn
08-22-2013, 09:51 AM
griffey24

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

please explain why this is a c/f, seems like a clear b/f to me and it's not really that shitty if we get raised because we probably have 0 equity. Because we opened UTG and there's a fish in the hand I can see how his range is going to be stronger on this turn card but this guy is not a nit and seems capable...it's a good card to turn 77/88 type hands into a bluff.

Why do you think if we get raised on the turn we have 0% equity? This implies that you think he has the nutflush often here, but I'd expect nutfd to be raising certainly some non-zero % on the flop. Assuming he raises the nut fd often on flop that means we almost always have equity here on the turn.
08-24-2013, 03:55 PM
Pelion

Quote:

Originally Posted by griffey24

Why do you think if we get raised on the turn we have 0% equity? This implies that you think he has the nutflush often here, but I'd expect nutfd to be raising certainly some non-zero % on the flop. Assuming he raises the nut fd often on flop that means we almost always have equity here on the turn.

Wouldn't you also expect sets to usually raise this flop? I'd expect we are often against weaker flushes + bluffs if he raises the turn.
08-26-2013, 12:45 PM
postiga

I think you can call and reavaliate the river...may be i play like you checking the turn
08-27-2013, 03:17 PM
Carroters

I wouldn't expect sets or nut flush draws to raise this flop too much with the fish behind.
08-27-2013, 03:41 PM
Pelion

I can see what you're saying, but if you're MP with a set on the flop, aren't you afraid of half the deck if you call 3 way (not to mention overcards/scarecards killing your action)?
08-27-2013, 08:39 PM
Carroters

Yeah sets I'm probably raising, not so much the nfds though.
08-29-2013, 01:33 AM
jackvance

Quote:

Originally Posted by rpm

+1. the fact that P4's and carroters are even considering C/Fing here is eye-opening to say the least.

Folding is horrible. But someone please convince me otherwise I am open to ideas.
09-01-2013, 10:51 AM
BorisTheSpider

Intuitively, I just don't get it - I know it looks like an awful turn, but I know for sure I wouldn't c/f here. Maybe this thread will change that for me.

If we give him [QQ-22, AKs-ATs, AKo-AQo, KQs] to call preflop, and assume he continues on the flop with overpairs, sets and flush draws, then he's continuing 33% of the time, and gets to the turn with [QQ-TT, 99, 66, 22, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs]

Our equity against his complete turn range is 55%, but assuming he folds his flop overpairs that are lower than Queens, that is _all_ he folds - it's 46% of his range, and the rest is sets and flushes. [QdQc, QhQc, QhQd, JJ-TT, 9d9c, 9s9c, 9s9d, 6d6c, 6h6c, 6h6d, 2d2c, 2h2c, 2h2d, AsJs, AsTs]

So although I don't get it intuitively, I'm going to have to think about this hand, because I would almost certainly bleed money here if this range assignment is correct.

If he's tighter preflop and doesn't call to setmine with his smaller pairs, so we give him [QQ-99, AKs-ATs, AKo-AQo, KQs] on the flop, then flush draws, sets and overpairs are 44% of his range, everything else is air so unless he floats with air, 50% of his turn range is a set or a flush.

Aside from the overall strength of his turn range, what can he have that we'd even want to value bet against? All that's left that we beat is JJ, TT and even with a spade they are unlikely to continue.

So we can't bet the turn for value, but he can't have too many hands that need to bluff, so unless he turns JJ/TT into a bluff like always, we're more likely to be getting value owned when we c/c turn.

Playing with yet another option for his preflop range, let's give him something quite loose like [QQ-22, A2s+, AJo+, KTs+, KQo, QTs+, JTs], now sets, overpairs and flush draws are about a quarter of his range on the flop, if he continues with these, so sees the turn with:

[QdQc, QhQc, QhQd, JJ-TT, 9d9c, 9s9c, 9s9d, 6d6c, 6h6c, 6h6d, 2d2c, 2h2c, 2h2d, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, JsTs]

Now nearly 70% of his range is sets or flushes, and again only JJ/TT are left that he might bluff with.

In the absence of a read that he's likely to float air, or turn JJ/TT into a bluff, I think we c/f.

Someone tell me I'm wrong, because I just don't get it, but OTOH I don't get a lot of things - I guess that's why I'm still a micros player.
09-28-2013, 10:00 AM
Capua

Reply

Quote:

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

Intuitively, I just don't get it - I know it looks like an awful turn, but I know for sure I wouldn't c/f here. Maybe this thread will change that for me.

If we give him [QQ-22, AKs-ATs, AKo-AQo, KQs] to call preflop, and assume he continues on the flop with overpairs, sets and flush draws, then he's continuing 33% of the time, and gets to the turn with [QQ-TT, 99, 66, 22, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs]

Our equity against his complete turn range is 55%, but assuming he folds his flop overpairs that are lower than Queens, that is _all_ he folds - it's 46% of his range, and the rest is sets and flushes. [QdQc, QhQc, QhQd, JJ-TT, 9d9c, 9s9c, 9s9d, 6d6c, 6h6c, 6h6d, 2d2c, 2h2c, 2h2d, AsJs, AsTs]

So although I don't get it intuitively, I'm going to have to think about this hand, because I would almost certainly bleed money here if this range assignment is correct.

If he's tighter preflop and doesn't call to setmine with his smaller pairs, so we give him [QQ-99, AKs-ATs, AKo-AQo, KQs] on the flop, then flush draws, sets and overpairs are 44% of his range, everything else is air so unless he floats with air, 50% of his turn range is a set or a flush.

Aside from the overall strength of his turn range, what can he have that we'd even want to value bet against? All that's left that we beat is JJ, TT and even with a spade they are unlikely to continue.

So we can't bet the turn for value, but he can't have too many hands that need to bluff, so unless he turns JJ/TT into a bluff like always, we're more likely to be getting value owned when we c/c turn.

Playing with yet another option for his preflop range, let's give him something quite loose like [QQ-22, A2s+, AJo+, KTs+, KQo, QTs+, JTs], now sets, overpairs and flush draws are about a quarter of his range on the flop, if he continues with these, so sees the turn with:

[QdQc, QhQc, QhQd, JJ-TT, 9d9c, 9s9c, 9s9d, 6d6c, 6h6c, 6h6d, 2d2c, 2h2c, 2h2d, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, JsTs]

Now nearly 70% of his range is sets or flushes, and again only JJ/TT are left that he might bluff with.

In the absence of a read that he's likely to float air, or turn JJ/TT into a bluff, I think we c/f.

Someone tell me I'm wrong, because I just don't get it, but OTOH I don't get a lot of things - I guess that's why I'm still a micros player.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

Intuitively, I just don't get it - I know it looks like an awful turn, but I know for sure I wouldn't c/f here. Maybe this thread will change that for me.

If we give him [QQ-22, AKs-ATs, AKo-AQo, KQs] to call preflop, and assume he continues on the flop with overpairs, sets and flush draws, then he's continuing 33% of the time, and gets to the turn with [QQ-TT, 99, 66, 22, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs]

Our equity against his complete turn range is 55%, but assuming he folds his flop overpairs that are lower than Queens, that is _all_ he folds - it's 46% of his range, and the rest is sets and flushes. [QdQc, QhQc, QhQd, JJ-TT, 9d9c, 9s9c, 9s9d, 6d6c, 6h6c, 6h6d, 2d2c, 2h2c, 2h2d, AsJs, AsTs]

So although I don't get it intuitively, I'm going to have to think about this hand, because I would almost certainly bleed money here if this range assignment is correct.

If he's tighter preflop and doesn't call to setmine with his smaller pairs, so we give him [QQ-99, AKs-ATs, AKo-AQo, KQs] on the flop, then flush draws, sets and overpairs are 44% of his range, everything else is air so unless he floats with air, 50% of his turn range is a set or a flush.

Aside from the overall strength of his turn range, what can he have that we'd even want to value bet against? All that's left that we beat is JJ, TT and even with a spade they are unlikely to continue.

So we can't bet the turn for value, but he can't have too many hands that need to bluff, so unless he turns JJ/TT into a bluff like always, we're more likely to be getting value owned when we c/c turn.

Playing with yet another option for his preflop range, let's give him something quite loose like [QQ-22, A2s+, AJo+, KTs+, KQo, QTs+, JTs], now sets, overpairs and flush draws are about a quarter of his range on the flop, if he continues with these, so sees the turn with:

[QdQc, QhQc, QhQd, JJ-TT, 9d9c, 9s9c, 9s9d, 6d6c, 6h6c, 6h6d, 2d2c, 2h2c, 2h2d, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, JsTs]

Now nearly 70% of his range is sets or flushes, and again only JJ/TT are left that he might bluff with.

In the absence of a read that he's likely to float air, or turn JJ/TT into a bluff, I think we c/f.

Someone tell me I'm wrong, because I just don't get it, but OTOH I don't get a lot of things - I guess that's why I'm still a micros player.

Nice analysis Boris..
We have to look of what is our range for betting turn? - And compare it to V's calling range on the turn and also look at different river scenarios that occurs imo. I might to a CREV-sim when I'am home and upload it FWIW.
How do you Guys think of this approach to find the highest EV line?