10nl AQs vs. weak tighty

btn ended up being 12/3/0 over 200 Ftcb 71% really weak-passive, Im just wondering if the river is a def value-bet after someone this weak-tight calls two streets?

Revolution Gaming Network - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $9.40 (VPIP: 63.64, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
Hero (MP): $9.99
CO: $10.30 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 40)
BTN: $11.27 (VPIP: 16.05, PFR: 4.94, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 82)
SB: $14.18 (VPIP: 45.45, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 11)
BB: $8.91 (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 11)

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q:heart: A:heart:

UTG calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, fold, BTN calls $0.40, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.35, 3 players) 9:club: Q:diamond: 7:heart:
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.80, BTN calls $0.80, fold

Turn: ($2.95, 2 players) 2:heart:
Hero bets $1.48, BTN calls $1.48

River: ($5.91, 2 players) 9:heart:
[color=red]Hero??

I think you're missing a ton of value here against a weak passive. My plan would be to get stacks in comfortably by the river on this run-out:

$1 on the flop
$2.70 turn
$5.90 river

Seems to me you're more worried about a check/raise from a tight villain on the turn than getting the most value out of TPTK + NFD. Could be wrong but that's my take. I think the bet sizing in the post above is a spot on plan.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

I think you're missing a ton of value here against a weak passive. My plan would be to get stacks in comfortably by the river on this run-out:

$1 on the flop
$2.70 turn
$5.90 river

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Thanks bean, was def what i was looking for as far as advice goes. he ended up folding to $3 OTR.

$4 on river as played