Speaking of overbets

Villain is a 24/20 reg. 54% steal from BTN. F/T/R cbet stats of 67%/51%/57%. I don't believe I've seen him overbet before, or at least I don't have any notes of it.

I've noticed him taking some more passive lines against me, as he probably views me as a bit bluffy/spewy when given the chance.

I've seen him flat AK from BB v my CO open. He's c/called a K65tt board as PFR w/ KJ, c/called Ao turn, check/check Qo river against me.

UTG: $228.53
CO: $414.91
BTN: $200.00
SB: $215.12
Hero (BB): $441.39

SB posts SB $1.00, Hero posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has A:club: T:spade:

fold, fold, BTN raises to $4.00, fold, Hero calls $2.00

Flop: ($9.00, 2 players) 2:club: 6:spade: K:spade:
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.53, Hero calls $5.53

Turn: ($20.06, 2 players) A:heart:
Hero checks, BTN bets $14.00, Hero calls $14.00

River: ($48.06, 2 players) T:diamond:
Hero checks, BTN bets $84.00

I can fold river right? Anything he's trying to get to fold with a bluff (Kx, missed spades, weak Ax) probably doesn't need to over bet right?

Always fun to overbet when your opponents weak range is severely capped. What's he expecting you to call with? KT? Problem is he's probably got every combo of QJ in his range. I'd call, AT seems like our top hand pretty much. If you like to take this line with sets then I suppose fold.

I did end up calling, since I felt like other than like QsJs, AT is near the top of my range. Since I'm probably not playing 66/22 this way 100% of the time.

On one hand, I felt like it doesn't really make sense for him to bluff this size, since he could get folds from busted draws, Kx, or worse with a much smaller bet. But on the other hand, I felt like from a value perspective, I usually have a one pair Kx/Ax here, and it doesn't much make sense for him to value over bet either.

It is true that some people like to overbet because they feel even a pot-sized bet might not get a fold.

Yeah I defo don't want to be folding nearly everything to this. I really don't understand it for value at all, as a bluff I could at least see the spazzy thought process of "omg his range is capped I make him fold it all" but I agree he doesn't need to ever go this big to achieve that. Calling AT for sure.

Why would you c/c twice with QJss?

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

Why would you c/c twice with QJss?

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Would you rather c/r turn? It just seems like we wouldn't represent much other than 66/33. What would be a better line with QsJs?

Anything but c/c twice.

From purely a GTO perspective, he's risking 84 to win 48, so his bet needs to work 64% of the time. So to avoid him betting any two here profitably, we need to call our top 36% of hands we get to river with.

Given you're peeling Ax on this flop I'd imagine we're getting to this river with a lot of Ax, Kx, and even worse, so I can't see how we can fold a hand as strong as AT ever here. Not close imo, without good reads on his overbetting range.

Just want to share a thought on how I think we should use the GTO approach. The way I see it is that before we make any kind of GTO calculation we need to make a few base assumptions based on population reads, expected tendencies due to stats/reads which might change our framework. So we don't have any read as to his overbetting range per se, but we can probably make a couple of decent base assumptions. I haven't played 200 in a while Stacks, so I might be off on this, but I would imagine that big over bet bluffs are pretty rare, and these lines are for value more often than not from regs at low stakes.

I'd basically use this assumption to deduce that while villain may well have a bluffing range here, we should,work off the groundwork that it won't be anywhere near as wide as an optimal overbet bluffing range (whatever that might be). Therefore, the % of the time we need to call to play optimally vs him in this spot should go down, although it should of course not become 0. I think we'd get completely crushed here calling 36% of our range. I obviously still want to call AT as it's way higher up than that.

Does that make any sense? Still very inexperienced with the GTO so correct me if that approach I sketched is flawed.

I realize from a GTO perspective we shouldn't be folding. I mean we need to defend 36% of the time, and AT definitely falls into that range. But from an exploitative perspective, I just didn't know if maybe we could find a fold, as it just seems like an over bet with a bluff is unnecessary. But the logic that our range is capped making over bets quite successful, and that the draw bricked so he might feel the need to bet larger as a bluff to get me off Ax/Kx, and I can see why it's a call.

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Originally Posted by Carroters

but I would imagine that big over bet bluffs are pretty rare, and these lines are for value more often than not from regs at low stakes.

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This is my assumption as well.

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Originally Posted by Carroters

I'd basically use this assumption to deduce that while villain may well have a bluffing range here, we should,work off the groundwork that it won't be anywhere near as wide as an optimal overbet bluffing range (whatever that might be).

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When he's betting 84 to win 48, we will need 39% equity to call (84/216). Thus I believe an optimal betting range would be 39% bluffs, 61% value if he wants to make us indifferent to calling with bluff catchers.

And we need to defend 36% of the time to make him indifferent to bluffing.

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Originally Posted by Carroters

Does that make any sense? Still very inexperienced with the GTO so correct me if that approach I sketched is flawed.

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I'm pretty inexperienced with it as well, so I could be wrong on the above.

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Originally Posted by Carroters

I would imagine that big over bet bluffs are pretty rare, and these lines are for value more often than not from regs at low stakes.

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folding is obv exploitable here, but i don't think this type of villain is going to be exploiting by overbet shoving often enough to call

Overbetting is such a strong weapon to have in ur arsenal, unfortunatly, i dont

i dont have the balls to do it, i get so mad at myself when my bluff get called, and keep kicking myself for making the move, on the other hands when ur winning hand get paid u feel like a god of poker

i think call because you should have a handful of Kx you sigh fold

some people definitely only have the nuts here though which is annoying to find out too late

This is slightly besides the point, but for all the people saying about how they don't understand why he'd bet so big with a bluff, from a GTO point of view when our opponent has a capped range (which apparently you do) and we don't we should almost be definitely be overbetting the pot.

Is that not right?

its not wrong but theres still alot of room to decide which hands go in which betting ranges. like in this hand maybe overbet sets, a straight and stuff like 45ss J9ss, but bet standard with AK and 98ss

thats the magic of poker

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Originally Posted by ImSavy

This is slightly besides the point, but for all the people saying about how they don't understand why he'd bet so big with a bluff, from a GTO point of view when our opponent has a capped range (which apparently you do) and we don't we should almost be definitely be overbetting the pot.

Is that not right?

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Sure but ppl also realize when their range is capped. So if I checked back T46ss and turn was 2s and I faced an overbet lead, then while my range is capped and theirs is not, I could also ask myself "Why would they bet so big with a flush, when they know I don't have anything strong enough to call -> which then leads to hero calling down". It really depends on what level ppl are on and how they will react to the overbet.

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Sure but ppl also realize when their range is capped. So if I checked back T46ss and turn was 2s and I faced an overbet lead, then while my range is capped and theirs is not, I could also ask myself "Why would they bet so big with a flush, when they know I don't have anything strong enough to call -> which then leads to hero calling down". It really depends on what level ppl are on and how they will react to the overbet.

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From a GTO point of view it doesn't though.

Obviously if we know he calls too much we should have more value hands and if he folds too much we should have more bluffs to be moving towards optimal play, but if we've balanced our range correctly him calling too much or folding too much results in us profiting.

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Originally Posted by ImSavy

From a GTO point of view it doesn't though.

Obviously if we know he calls too much we should have more value hands and if he folds too much we should have more bluffs to be moving towards optimal play, but if we've balanced our range correctly him calling too much or folding too much results in us profiting.

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Sure that's fine, from a GTO point of view you can 1.5x pot river in spots when villain has a capped range, and just make sure that you have 37.5% bluffs, since villain will be faced with 1.67:1 pot odds.