Few Overbet Hands

Some (or all) of these might be bad spew. But after the recent talk of overbetting in the other thread, I felt kinda compelled to look for spots during my last session where overbetting might be better than the line I typically would choose, since it's something I don't really do that often. So here are a few of the hands where I overbet, and am unsure whether it's best or just plain bad/horrid.

Hand 1 - Villain is a 25/18 reg (FR + 6m stats). Only have 500 hands on him at FR where he is 16/13. He has a flop cbet of 62%. 86% fold to 3bet over FR sample.

UTG: $70.00
UTG+1: $101.50
MP: $62.20
MP+1: $106.71
CO: $112.69
Hero (BTN): $103.00
SB: $102.94
BB: $86.55

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has 6:heart: 7:heart:

fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.00, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $3.00, fold, fold

Flop: ($7.50, 2 players) T:club: 7:spade: K:club:
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $4.58, UTG+1 calls $4.58

Turn: ($16.66, 2 players) 3:heart:
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $30.00

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Hand 2 - Villain is a 22/18 reg (2.8k hands). Total 3bet of 7%. 9% 3b SB v BTN. C/r Flop of 4% (2/56).

MP: $58.45
CO: $43.27
Hero (BTN): $206.78
SB: $192.47
BB: $100.00
UTG: $127.08

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has T:spade: T:club:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $3.00, SB calls $2.50, fold

Flop: ($7.00, 2 players) 4:diamond: 3:diamond: 2:spade:
SB checks, Hero bets $4.26, SB calls $4.26

Turn: ($15.52, 2 players) 4:spade:
SB checks, Hero bets $9.66, SB calls $9.66

River: ($34.84, 2 players) 9:heart:
SB checks, Hero bets $50.00

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Hand 3 - Villain is 27/16 over 300 hands. Here's a note I took on him from earlier in the session:

[P] 3b AQs BTN v MP
bet/called small on 875r flop
called overshove (1.3p) on Q turn

UTG: $55.72
Hero (CO): $80.47
BTN: $43.59
SB: $50.00
BB: $106.28

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has 9:diamond: T:diamond:

UTG raises to $1.00, Hero calls $1.00, fold, SB calls $0.75, fold

Flop: ($3.50, 3 players) A:diamond: 6:diamond: 8:diamond:
SB checks, UTG bets $3.08, Hero calls $3.08, fold

Turn: ($9.66, 2 players) K:club:
UTG checks, Hero bets $5.95, UTG calls $5.95

River: ($21.56, 2 players) Q:spade:
UTG checks, Hero bets $62.00 [Effective 2x pot shove]

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Hand 4 - Villain is a 25/21 reg (9.1k hands). Total 3bet 9%. 12% BB v BTN 3b. C/r Flop of 14% (31/222). Fold to cbet of 38% (68/180) on flop, 41% (19/46) on turn, and 38% (5/13) on river.

CO: $169.37
Hero (BTN): $100.00
SB: $147.52
BB: $107.38

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has 7:diamond: J:diamond:

fold, Hero raises to $2.00, fold, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($4.50, 2 players) T:club: 6:club: T:diamond:
BB checks, Hero bets $2.68, BB calls $2.68

Turn: ($9.86, 2 players) A:heart:
BB checks, Hero bets $6.00, BB calls $6.00

River: ($21.86, 2 players) 7:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets $40.00,

only one i dont like is #3. the K and Q coming off make it so the hands that you might be bluffing with, you probably paired up. so i think you get hero called less.

if it was J then 2 i'd like it a little better. or Q then 6. something like that. but KQ is kinda specifically bad to act like your bluffing on (and JT backdoored). also i bet a little bigger on turn

Hand 1 - I think this is meh ok. The flop has soooo many draws on it though, that a turn overbet might just be perceived as a draw.

Hand 2 - I like this hand the best. I think the overbet makes it seem like 4x+ or air, and with the FD's bricking ppl might be compelled to hero call.

Hand 3 - I don't like this hand. If someone has Ax here, there are just sooo many combos that they lose to, and no air in our range now (for the reasons gabe stated).

Hand 4 - I really think we can even check behind on this river, and be good sometimes. If villain is the type to c/c with Ax on paired flops then I don't know if you'll be able to fold out Ax here.

Preface: I'm no authority on overbetting, I almost never do it.


Hand 1: I like this, you can probably follow through on clubs or broadway cards, or at least he should think you will and this will get you a lot of folds on the turn.

Hand 2: This one I'm not sure about. I think you need to just bet like 8 bucks here. Seems like he's poised to fold to almost any significantly sized bet unless there's some dynamic.

Hand 3: I'd rather overbet the turn than the river here at 50nl, and I'd certainly bet more than 5.95. He's probably calling a bet OTT nearly 100% so you are making like 3 less dollars than you should be. River, again I'd rather bet small than overbet, this is just gonna make him fold without some history.

Hand 4: Are you trying to make him fold A9? I check turn and give up. I don't like the river as his range is not capped, he can have Tx and he might not fold even fold an ace.

1 I think is OK
2 I don't get it, just bet normal
3 Bet more on the turn and I don't think that's too big OTR
4 Just hate hate hate

Gabe, I'd be interested in your thoughts on Hand 4 specifically. Your post seems to imply you like it, but I would generally think it a terrible spot to overbet.

1. I Don't like this, mostly because frankly I think theres no way youre doing this with nut hands and its a bit see through.
2. Good
3. Good
4. It's good if you really feel like there's no way he would have raised flop or turn with a bare Ten. I imagine with 66 you're going to see some flats here but there are a lot of players who are exclusively c/r here with a Ten.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by surviva316

Gabe, I'd be interested in your thoughts on Hand 4 specifically. Your post seems to imply you like it, but I would generally think it a terrible spot to overbet.

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its hard for them to be really strong. if they snap call with an ace then you can make them make other mistakes on future hands. im not saying this is how id play it but i dont think its -ev

I'm really kinda enjoying overbetting at times. It gives you a chance to get people off of hands that they otherwise wouldn't fold, or get additional value in spots where you would otherwise make less. Kinda fun looking for good spots to overbet.

Villain is a 20/15 reg. Fold to cbet of 57%/63%/57% on flop/turn/river, respectively. Have a note on him from a day or so ago where he caught me overbet bluffing the river.

UTG: $98.00
Hero (CO): $110.20
BTN: $194.53
SB: $266.24
BB: $100.00

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has A:spade: K:heart:

fold, Hero raises to $3.00, fold, fold, BB calls $2.00

Flop: ($6.50, 2 players) A:club: 6:club: 4:diamond:
BB checks, Hero bets $3.95, BB calls $3.95

Turn: ($14.40, 2 players) 4:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets $9.00, BB calls $9.00

River: ($32.40, 2 players) 7:heart:
BB checks, Hero bets $61.00

I feel like a river overbet is kind of a must here after the note from earlier. Also I feel like this is kind of a spot where I should be overbetting a rather unbalanced value heavy range, since it's pretty likely AJ/AQ make up a large majority of his range. And those are going to be the best bluffcatchers given the blockers to AA/AK.

Thoughts?

Also, any thoughts on how to best go about picking the correct overbet size to use in spots? 1.5x/2x/2.5x? Like in this river spot, I wasn't sure whether to go 1.5x ($45ish), 2x ($60ish), or shove ($84). I get that with whatever size I choose, I would need to balance differently based on the pot odds I was giving him. But looking back, I feel like since I'm already polarizing my range by overbetting here, I should have just shoved.

And that typically, when overbetting turn I should try to set it up so river is less than pot. And when overbetting river, I should probably just be shoving. That is unless there is a large amount left behind (say 3x pot or more).

The tough spot about hand 4 is that it appears like a good board to continue to bluff/C-bet at. Your opponent could easily decide to float call with A high. After betting the turn and having your opponent call, I would probably just give up on the river

I like the AK hand, nh. Seems like a decent spot where we might try to run a bluff because his range is capped, and FD bricking could also entice a call.

I don't think you should overbet as large in the last hand you posted. A7 and 77 are plausible. The less capped someones range is the less I bet as a heuristic.