AJ top trips and villain overbets river

Villain is 27/19/ 1.1AF after 100 hands - though he has 7% 3bet and 40% steal. He started the session pretty nitty and has been opening up lately (and I have tightened up) as I reached 50% steal.

I don't see him raising the turn with middle pairs, so it looks like sets, Jx (probably TJ-AJ) and bluffs. When I call the raise and he overbets the river I think we lose the weaker Jx hands - leaving it at maybe 33/44/QJ/KJ/AJ for value and bluffs.

Does this look about right for a value range? If so then I think we can safely fold, as I doubt he has bluffs often enough.

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, €0.10 BB (4 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

BB (€17.68)
UTG (€10.72)
Hero (Button) (€11.20)
SB (€13.26)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif
1 fold, Hero raises €0.25, SB calls €0.20, BB calls €0.15

Flop: (€0.75) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets €0.40, SB calls €0.40, 1 fold

Turn: (€1.55) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets €1, SB raises €2.50, Hero calls €1.50

River: (€6.55) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
SB bets €10.11 (All-In) Hero? ($8 to call)

In reply to myself, since I can't delete the threat, I think this is a really easy call. I must have miscounted combos the first time around, but actually against sets and QJ-AJ we have 31% equity. Given that we only need 36% to call, he has to have bluffs/spazz/worse Jx really really rarely e.g. against sets and JTs+ we can call.

Lots of guys will 3bet pre with 33/44 b/c they usually dont make much on sets and dont want to play postflop. Its possible he has these but other combos of Jx as well.

3b the turn

I was thinking he'd probably bet river with anything he raises the turn with and then I can shove over.

Is that wrong?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pelion

I was thinking he'd probably bet river with anything he raises the turn with and then I can shove over.

Is that wrong?

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Sounds pretty spot on to me.

Whats ur image been like pelion? I agree w/ vinland, but i wouldn't discount 33,44. just a bit less likely if he 3b's them maybe 25%, but after he c/c's the flop it's even less likely he has a set. so i would say we can discount sets by 75% because of villains line. There's still a chance he slowplays on a dry board he doesn't think you'll will cont w/ if he raises. That basically leaves worse Jx, and QJ, unless we have a read he can't give-up w/ his semi bluff A5. I just don't see how many pure bluffs we can give him. In which case we call, not pumping though, or super happy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pelion

I was thinking he'd probably bet river with anything he raises the turn with and then I can shove over.

Is that wrong?

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this is obv not a bad option, i just think that villain has more combos of Jx than 33/44 and i can see him putting in more money to a small turn 3b which leaves river less than pot behind for the stack, whereas he may find a way to avoid getting stacked with more than pot remaining behind on the river. Unless he has bluffs in his turn range, which may continue to spazz on the river, yep, starting to think that calling turn is better, and get it in on the river, cheers for posting the hand.

as played congrats to him if he has better

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

3b the turn

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Nooo definitely do not 3b the turn with position in this spot.

Villain is v polarized in this spot. The hands we beat that will give us action to a 3b, will also bet the river so we can jam over if we'd like. Whatever air he has will just fold to a 3b.

As played, meh calling it off but not happy.

The fact that its the small blind and he didn't raise pf means there's a ton of worse JX in his range, ie J7s+, J8+. I'd be quite happy stacking off too, I know he's not aggro but lots of passive fish get trigger happy with trips.

Yeah this sucks because vs some fish you'll run into nothing but boats + here, vs others therell be so much Jx that folding is horrible. Just gotta call and throw up in your mouth a little bit. I'd probably fold KJ though.

Defo flat turn raise.

Thanks for the replies guys. I guess it's good I couldn't delete it - some interesting discussion in this thread.

WeldPhaser - I think villain probably sees me as pretty aggro. Both blinds had been folding to my button raises almost always at the start of the session, and had been starting to 3bet and call fairly often for the last 40-50 hands. This could be a sign that they are playing back at my aggressive stealing, or could just be a combination of card dead at the start and heater now.

I don't think I'm seen as too crazy, and I don't think the blinds are either.