KJo in 3-bet pot, weird river spot.

Start of the session so no real reads or history with villain. I'm not sure if I'd rather just barrel off here rather than checking turn, thoughts on this? As played I bet river for value and find this raise really weird. Villain only reps a set/straight that got really tricky on the turn. I don't see much if any 6x in his range in the first place so wtf is he supposed to have here? The most likely hands seems to be some 99-JJ that's turning itself into a bluff or perhaps a busto fd that took a free turn with the intention of bluffing rivers. Anyone else want to call?

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 173.64 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 20.29, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 72)
BTN: 103.18 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 16.48, 3Bet Preflop: 9.30, Hands: 94)
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG: 112.54 BB (VPIP: 33.73, PFR: 24.10, 3Bet Preflop: 6.45, Hands: 85)
MP: 103.5 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:spade: J:diamond:

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9.5 BB, fold, CO calls 6.5 BB

Flop: (20 BB, 2 players) 8:club: 7:spade: 4:spade:
Hero bets 9 BB, CO calls 9 BB

Turn: (38 BB, 2 players) 5:club:
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (38 BB, 2 players) K:heart:
Hero bets 21 BB, CO raises to 155.14 BB and is all-in, Hero? (69.50 to hero)

Not feeling very curious tbh.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

Not feeling very curious tbh.

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What hands are you expecting to lose to if you call?

6x and sets. I'd jam two pair over your bet even. Not saying it can't be a bluff just I don't see these plays as bluffs very often from players with decent stats.

As much as they rep narrow here, ask yourself why they wouldn't bluff the turn if they were planning on bluffing?

This is a good point that is often relevant in these situations ^^^

One explanation is that villain thinks he has sdv on the turn but not on the river, but then that involves the turning of pairs into bluffs. In hindsight I do defo think this is a fold, I tend to level myself pretty hard sometimes when my range is probably perceived to be capped. This is 100NL though so if bluffs are unlikely and value is unlikely, value is probably much less unlikely.

Personally I would be more inclined to call here, his line doesn't really make sense after he checks behind on the turn. When you bet river I think it looks like air to villian. A busted flushdraw, missed overs or a weak pair going for thin value. I don't think villian will put you on a king very often so he expects a fold here aton of the time. All in all I'm looking him up here.

These are spots where I used to hero call a lot. The vast majority of the time you're absolutely crushed.