AJs 3b pot, fold flop?

villain is new to the scene, but appears to be 10-tabling and shaping up like a 15-12-3 type of standard TAG after a couple of hundred hands. Fold to cbet 60%, raise cbet 10% (6/10, 1/10). He buys in for either $10 or $25 and seems not to have auto rebuy on, typically this means dead money, but that read doesn't apply in this case.
I haven't seen him min-raise pre before
History = I squeezed AK from the sb vs his mp open and a fish call, then i 5b shoved vs his 4b cos i had AK. Flopped an ace to stack him. This is five minutes later, different table.
He probably sees me as 22-17-6 cos i've been too active this session

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com

SB ($22.35)
BB ($25)
UTG ($13.87)
MP1 ($13.17)
MP2 ($25.45)
CO ($15.30)
Hero (Button) ($38.43)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J:club:, A:club:
3 folds, CO raises to $0.50, Hero raises to $1.85, 2 folds, CO calls $1.35

Flop: ($4.05) 4:club:, 2:spade:, A:diamond: (2 players)
CO checks, what's the plan?

If all he's seen you squeeze is AK, and he sees you as 22/17/6, he likely gives you credit for a big ace. Better doesn't fold unless you triple barrel, or at least two big bets, and worse doesn't call more than 2 streets, so you don't need to bet flop for value.

Certainly I don't think you want 3 streets of value for your hand, so I check back flop planning to call turn if bet into and bet turn if checked to again.

Probably bet $1.45 with my entire range other than QQ-KK. Probably have to let it go facing too much heat though.

probably only getting two streets here. so we get b/b/c, b/c/b, and c/b/b as our main options (barring plans to c/r etc). i think we definitely need to CB flop because that's probably our weakest betting range - everyone CB's dry flops IP in 3b pots right? after that you decide whether you want to bet/check turn/river or check/bet. if a J falls at any point my plan would change to getting 3 streets by the way.

I'm checking flop, it's dry enough to not worry about him peeling, and he's not got a worse ace very often. There's no value, when he continues he probably has a set. So I'm checking in the hope he stabs turn.

Bets flop we has position life is good.

The only problem with checking is that it might seem stronger than betting to an observant villain. At this stake I'd probably check the flop though and get some value on later streets.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jackvance

The only problem with checking is that it might seem stronger than betting to an observant villain. At this stake I'd probably check the flop though and get some value on later streets.

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This is definitely the problem with any perceptive villain. You pretty much have no air once you check back.

Yup. I'd let my flop decision be swayed by how perceptive I estimate villain to be.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Probably bet $1.45 with my entire range other than QQ-KK. Probably have to let it go facing too much heat though.

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Don't you think AJ is the same hand as KK/QQ here?

CO open and BTN 3b?

I would expect most people to 4b AK, so AJ only loses to AQ. Some ppl def call A8-ATs type stuff vs a BTN 3b.

Depending on dynamic, I'll sometimes/often call with AK too. I wouldn't necessarily discount that.

I will almost always bet here as I would bet when I miss. I think bet-fold but our hand seems kind of strong to bet-fold. maybe check back and call turn/bet if checked to. re-evaluate on river. his range is probably pretty tight for calling a 3bet OOP so I assume hes near top 2/3 without a 4bet hand obv. I am kind of leaning toward check on flop now, he already limited the top of his range by not 4betting pre and checking the flop to us. I think we are going to lose value if we bet as he will almost never call with worse. maybe, he might peel one on such a dry board but checking back the flop gives him a opportunity to make a mistake, (lead the turn into us with worse, or check call our turn bet with worse,knowing we could bet turn light) his range is limited and after all that I check back flop-call if bet into/bet if checked to on turn - and call river or bet when checked to.