Call this flop shove deep vs fish with 12 maybe 15 outs?

Villain is new to the table but definitely very fishy. We've only played 12 hands but so far he is 92/58 and 3bet 43 which is 3 of 7 times. The 3bets were min 3bets. They have not been big hands.

This is the second time he has shoved on me postflop. My read is that he's annoyed that I'm not letting him play limp-and-see-a-flop poker.

It's possible he has a big hand but I would be surprised if he played it this way. I would expect him to slowplay any thing really good. My guess is he has a 9 or pocket pair possibly AK. If so I have 15 outs and am a favorite in the hand. Call? For 150 bbs? That's a lot of equity. Or pass and look for a better spot?

If I had A9 or TT I'd snap him here and expect to be good a lot of the time. So snap with the combo draw and equity just as well?

PS the table is really six handed not three handed.

$0.02/$0.04 No Limit Holdem
Merge
3 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
BTN Hero ($14.10) 353bb
SB Small Blind ($1.77) 44bb
BB Villain ($6.64) 166bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.06, 3 players) Hero is BTN :qd: :js:
Hero raises to $0.14, Small Blind folds, Villain raises to $0.24, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: :2s: :8s: :9s: ($0.50, 2 players)
Villain goes all-in $6.40, Hero ???

meh I fold. If all our outs are good, we have 15. If we know these outs are all good then sure we can get it in profitably. But how often do we have 15 outs? If he has a bigger spade draw we're down to 8 outs, and obviously behind to his high card. I don't think spades are good enough for us often enough, I'd expect him to be shoving with at least some perceived equity here, rather than just airballing. Idunno but I really don't want to pay this moron off with a busted draw, I think I wait for a better spot.

I'd fold, but more because this villain is probably going to shove OTF again and I can find a better spot to call him. I've come across similar villains in SNGs, and it's a matter of waiting for a big hand to trap him with since he's probably shoving light. We lose $.25 now to win $7.00 later when we have the overpair or two pair, or whatever.

On the one hand, if your BR can take such hits then fine. On the other hand in this particular spot you're not in that great shape if he has a higher spade, and never really that big of a favorite unless he has undercards. You're a 42% dog to AKo.

Def wait for better spot. there will be. one comin real soon vs. whale

definitely fold. You're just very dead to so many hands. AsJ though, and that's a diff story, will call that.

Thanks for the feedback guys.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jackvance

On the one hand, if your BR can take such hits then fine.

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It's fine to make -ev plays if your BR can take the hit?

Easy fold imo

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jackvance

On the one hand, if your BR can take such hits then fine. On the other hand in this particular spot you're not in that great shape if he has a higher spade, and never really that big of a favorite unless he has undercards. You're a 42% dog to AKo.

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Disagree with this about BR. With this massive overbet I think his range is weighted towards AKo with at least a spade which would give us 35% equity calling the massive overbet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pascal

Disagree with this about BR. With this massive overbet I think his range is weighted towards AKo with at least a spade which would give us 35% equity calling the massive overbet.

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I'm pretty sure the BR comment has been mis-explained/misunderstood since no one would argue making -EV calls is ok just because we will last a while before we busto.