Fold the 2nd nuts?

Villain was 9/7 - I repeat, nine-fucking-seven.

Outrageous tightness was the reason for the preflop flat-call, I don't think he can call a 3bet with much worse and of course in this spot I only have the BB behind me to worry about it going multiway so I'm not so worried about that. Maybe everyone hates the flat? It seems kind of odd on review, but I felt like there was a valid reason to do it here.

I decide to check the turn and take a free one off if I can, as I think Qh strongly improves his range here and when he barrels I'm probably folding the river unimproved.

But we bink the 2nd nuts - given that villain is so tight, can any of you fold the river here?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $25.47 (101.9 bb)
Hero (SB): $63.77 (255.1 bb)
BB: $19.64 (78.6 bb)
UTG: $58.84 (235.4 bb)
MP: $26.98 (107.9 bb)
CO: $9.84 (39.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K:heart: K:spade:
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.80, Hero calls $0.70, BB folds

Flop: ($1.85) J:heart: 2:heart: 8:club: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.25) Q:heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.90, Hero calls $2.90

River: ($10.05) 7:heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $7

Hero?

I'd just 3-bet, he's likely not going to be anything near 9/7 from the BU and I don't imagine he's just mucking TT-QQ AK after a BU open.

Things to check: What's his BU open %? Does he look to be positionally aware? How has he reacted to 3-bets so far? Unless all of these give me a really negative answer I'd never flat.

I don't see how you can call the river. Postflop I play the same and now fold.

Is that pfr/vpip?

He can't call a 3bet with anything worse than the 2nd nuts preflop? I would have 3bet.

Also if he's folding a tonne to 3bets you should be bluffing more.

What's your river range?

9/7 over how many hands?
FT3-bet?

Just taking 9% to the flop: { 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo }
If Villain C-bets any pair or draw, that's 58% of his range
If Villain also C-bets any 2 overs, that's 94% of his range

call it 100% C-bet here

OTT, not much changes unless Villain decides to check behind w/ AK instead of 2 barreling. Maybe we can assume Villain checks behind w/ TT,99 w/o a heart, but maybe not.
Any idea of whether Villain will check behind IP OTT w/ mid showdown value hands??

OTR, The hands in Villain's starting range w/ a heart that you beat is 8 combos: 3@TT, 3@99 + 2@88.
The flushes w/ an A:h: are 12 combos: 3@AA, 2@AK, 3@AQ, 3@AJ, 1@ATs.
Maybe he has A9s,A8s... opening range could be wider. Maybe he has 77,66, same logic. I don't think he fires 3 streets w/ 77,66, though.

So ~3/5's (~60% ish) of his flushes beat you, assuming he bets worse than 2NF OTR. Would Villain bet sets here?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by seven-deuce

He can't call a 3bet with anything worse than the 2nd nuts preflop? I would have 3bet.

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But if Villain's calling range is AA,KK, then you can only raise w/ AA as a value bet.

Why you want to turn KK into a bluff?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

But if Villain's calling range is AA,KK, then you can only raise w/ AA as a value bet.

Why you want to turn KK into a bluff?

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I know, I'm just not convinced he is only 4bet or folding in response to a 3bet and is only 4betting AA,KK for value. So he's folding his entire button range bar 6 combos to a 3bet, it's possible, but highly improbable in my view.

Edit - 12combos, and continuing to a 3bet regardless if he's 4betting or not.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by seven-deuce

He can't call a 3bet with anything worse than the 2nd nuts preflop? I would have 3bet.

Also if he's folding a tonne to 3bets you should be bluffing more.

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Notwithstanding the lack of data yet (see the next post), I'll be 3bet bluffing him like a monkey.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

I'd just 3-bet, he's likely not going to be anything near 9/7 from the BU and I don't imagine he's just mucking TT-QQ AK after a BU open.

Things to check: What's his BU open %? Does he look to be positionally aware? How has he reacted to 3-bets so far? Unless all of these give me a really negative answer I'd never flat.

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I only had about 50 hands on him, but I do recall checking his positional stats before I flatted, and there was no clear evidence of positional awareness, but 50 hands is probably not enough to use this data. If I'd seen a wider button range, I'd have 3bet.

For the same reason (small sample) I had no real data on how he reacts to 3bets. I think he'd called 1/1, but I don't think I can really take that to mean anything over such a small sample.

Perhaps I should just have 3bet anyway, but I did believe vpip/pfr were useful over the sample I had, and I made the general assumption that someone so tight is also likely to be very tight to 3bets.

Agreed that river has to be a fold.

Easy value 3bet pre unless we know he folds a shittonne to 3bets. He has the button so he is more likely to call hands like AQ/KQ/JJ/TT and I'd be very surprised if he manages to fold QQ/AK here.

As played, I think flop and turn are fine. Now fold river. There are a lot of ways he can have A:h: and is likely to check back a lot of his showdown value stuff. There aren't really a lot of hands he can have preflop that didn't make at least a pair here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pelion

Easy value 3bet pre unless we know he folds a shittonne to 3bets. He has the button so he is more likely to call hands like AQ/KQ/JJ/TT and I'd be very surprised if he manages to fold QQ/AK here.

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Yeah perhaps I need to re-evaluate this, or look in my database and see what I find. My general assumption, if I don't have a sample, is that someone who I know is tight (that is to say, I have a big enough sample to trust vpip/pfr but not the other stats) is also tight to 3bets/4bets etc. Perhaps that assumption is wrong, for example, it seems reasonable to think that someone who has a strong range when they open may not actually be folding much of it to a 3bet.

i really wanna fold the turn against a 9/7 in 6m

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

Villain was 9/7 - I repeat, nine-fucking-seven.

Outrageous tightness was the reason for the preflop flat-call, I don't think he can call a 3bet with much worse and of course in this spot I only have the BB behind me to worry about it going multiway so I'm not so worried about that. Maybe everyone hates the flat? It seems kind of odd on review, but I felt like there was a valid reason to do it here.

I decide to check the turn and take a free one off if I can, as I think Qh strongly improves his range here and when he barrels I'm probably folding the river unimproved.

But we bink the 2nd nuts - given that villain is so tight, can any of you fold the river here?

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This sounds like you called the turn hoping to hit a 2 outer as you're clearly not happy with the flush?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

This sounds like you called the turn hoping to hit a 2 outer as you're clearly not happy with the flush?

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Well no, but yes.

When I said I'm folding river u/i, I mean I think he wont fire 3 with worse, so I'm expecting to often win a showdown when he checks back a non-heart river. If he fires again on a non-heart river, I'm folding.

No, not happy with the flush unless he just checks back the river.

Given the board runout, if he's as tight as you suggest then he's not doubling AhQ on the turn I don't think, these ppl will take a showdown free card I would assume. He will also check back AhJ presumably. AhK may not bluff the turn if he's not that aggro.

So now the only flushes he can have are AThh, A9hh etc. If he's showing up with alot of flushes, then he's looser than we are assuming.

Yada yada, if he's loose enough to have a lot of flushes here, then he's loose enough to 3b pre.

If he's tight enough to flat pre, then I don't think he has that many flushes. I'm probably calling. That being said, I'm a huge station. What was his timing?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Given the board runout, if he's as tight as you suggest then he's not doubling AhQ on the turn I don't think, these ppl will take a showdown free card I would assume. He will also check back AhJ presumably. AhK may not bluff the turn if he's not that aggro.

So now the only flushes he can have are AThh, A9hh etc. If he's showing up with alot of flushes, then he's looser than we are assuming.

Yada yada, if he's loose enough to have a lot of flushes here, then he's loose enough to 3b pre.

If he's tight enough to flat pre, then I don't think he has that many flushes. I'm probably calling. That being said, I'm a huge station. What was his timing?

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Interesting.

Timing, I don't recall - it can't have been instant nor can it have been very long, or I think I'd remember.

If he's tight enough to flat pre then I'd imagine his river range for tripling is almost solely the Ah. If he's this tight then I think it's more likely he bets AhQx AhJx on the turn than bets non nut flushes like this on the river. Huge nits don't fire 7/10 on the river in a big pot without the Ah because that's what they expect you to have and yeah he just won't have air or do this with sets etc ever IMO.

A PFR of 7% is around 92 hand combos. KK+ is only 12. If he's only calling or raising 3bets with KK+, then as a general principle you could profitably 3b/f any two cards because he's folding 87% of the time (80 of 92 combos). However, unless you have a specific read on his 3bet tendencies, I don't think you can assume that he is folding stuff like QQ, AK, or even JJ to a standard 3bet. The nits I know tend to be desperate to play a hand when they finally get one. In other words, I think you can 3b/f KK pre here for value.

As for calling the river, you're getting a decent price ($7 to win $17.05). So you need 41% equity. What can he reasonably have that beats you? You block KhKs and the board blocks Qh and Jh. That leaves 8 combos he might have (AhKx, AhQx, AhJx) to beat you. So if you fold here, you're saying that you can't think of 4 hand combos that he could do this with that you beat. You're basically saying he never bluffs. Can you be that confident in your reads? (Maybe? But you did say you only had like 50 hands on him.) I think I call river.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bikes

i really wanna fold the turn against a 9/7 in 6m

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Nice. Folding the turn was pretty much outside my reality, but on reflection I like that you mentioned it - on JQxx with a 3-flush out, what worse than Kings can he bet?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Given the board runout, if he's as tight as you suggest then he's not doubling AhQ on the turn I don't think, these ppl will take a showdown free card I would assume. He will also check back AhJ presumably. AhK may not bluff the turn if he's not that aggro.

So now the only flushes he can have are AThh, A9hh etc. If he's showing up with alot of flushes, then he's looser than we are assuming.

Yada yada, if he's loose enough to have a lot of flushes here, then he's loose enough to 3b pre.

If he's tight enough to flat pre, then I don't think he has that many flushes. I'm probably calling. That being said, I'm a huge station. What was his timing?

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Hero flatted pre you seem to think otherwise? Does that change what you said? Villain has even with his rock stats on the button probably any suited ace in his range which seems like plenty of hand combos to fold to. That said, even rocks know to bluff sometimes because of their image so there are def bluffs in his range which need to be considered.

I'm struggling to give him any reasonable range we have anywhere near 29% equity vs. Like what else do you guys expect to see here. It's incredibly difficult for a nit to make it to this river with this line with air or with a worse flush AND decide to blast the river with it. It's also pretty inconceivable he can just randomly spazz out with a set or two pair or turn AcAs into a bluff.

It's really not hard for him to have nut flushes here. [AhAx AhQx AhKx AhTh Ah9h] is already 12 combos. Also you get to this spot with the nut flush really often which both makes his bluffing frequency even lower still and makes us pretty difficult to exploit here in theory by him randomly turning stuff into bluffs. In reality though, this just hardly ever happens vs this player type in the first place.

Folding the turn is definitely not unreasonable.

Folding this turn without any STRONG reads on villain's postflop play is crazy. Pretty unreasonable with the information given imo.

I don't think it's crazy to consider it, but yeah I wouldn't do it without a bigger sample. Just saw OP mentioned we only have 50 hands and it's BU vs BB.

Sure I don't hate a river fold, I just think a river fold is somewhat inconsistent with pre-flop that's all.

And someone running 9/7 is probably still playing at least 15-20% on the btn, and just tight everywhere else. Calling on the SB, and letting this pot potentially go 3-way when we're OOP isn't ideal. IF I'm calling pre-flop it's because I want to keep some worse hands in and I'm certainly c/r the flop at least.

don't like preflop or flop, river is a fold as played. Not sure about your turn play either.