4bet bluff (LP dynamic)

This might be another one of those hands where everyone better than me hates it :( Thought I'd post it, since sometimes I post stuff like this and everyone says "you suck", other times they like it, and I still am not always clear on the difference between these spots - I think this is a somewhat interesting one. I kind of suspect people will hate the flop, because I have no equity, but we'll see.

BTN is 32/27 over 60, highish 3bet, esp. on the BTN even though it's a small sample, it ties in with his vpip/pfr so I think it's a big enough sample to make a tentative early assumption that he is 3betting positionally quite a bit.

SB I don't even have a single hand on, but he's sitting short and cold calls a 3bet OOP, so unless we just walked into a very narrow part of his range, he's a fish.

Once the SB cold calls the 3bet, there's a ton of dead money, so I think given the wide range I assign to BTN, and the SB just flatting, it's a good spot to reraise.

If BTN calls the 4bet, I'd be done with the hand.

Once the SB flats the 4bet, I think I can add a bit more weight to my fishy read of him, and although he could be slowplaying AA/KK/QQ that's a very small part of his range so he can have a ton of junk here too.

Even against the fish I'd be done with the hand on a lot of flops, but this one is good for me. Obviously I have absolutely no equity, but it's really hard for him to hit the flop, if we give him something like [55-AA, any broadway, any suited ace] then he's likely to fold to a flop shove 70% of the time or better. I also incidentally think a fish can probably call with worse sometimes (XhXh no ace).

His stack size is also perfect - big enough to put pressure on, small enough to lay me a good price on shoving.

My line looks so strong, I think even a fish can fold an underpair here, maybe I shouldn't be assuming that?



Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $26.52 (106.1 bb)
SB: $16.80 (67.2 bb)
BB: $32.21 (128.8 bb)
UTG: $31.72 (126.9 bb)
MP: $27.83 (111.3 bb)
Hero (CO): $27.15 (108.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3:diamond: A:diamond:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BTN raises to $2.25, SB calls $2.15, BB folds, Hero raises to $5.50, BTN folds, SB calls $3.25

Flop: ($13.50) J:heart: J:club: 5:heart: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $21.65 and is all-in (effective stacks $11.30)

I don't think the fish's range is very wide in this spot. They love to call raises with their big hands and have other people bet for them and they don't believe tag cbets at all. I think there's a very good chance villain calls the shove with any pair or even a big ace. If the SB was not in the hand, 4betting the BTN might be OK, but after the 3bet cold call I think your fold equity is nil and you should fold or call and draw.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by abelardx

I don't think the fish's range is very wide in this spot. They love to call raises with their big hands and have other people bet for them and they don't believe tag cbets at all. I think there's a very good chance villain calls the shove with any pair or even a big ace. If the SB was not in the hand, 4betting the BTN might be OK, but after the 3bet cold call I think your fold equity is nil and you should fold or call and draw.

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Yeah agree that fish love to slowplay. BUT - they also love to call, and they call with a lot more than they slowplay, just because their range is so wide.

I do think you're right though that there is a good chance he calls the shove with a mid PP. If we stick with the range I gave him in the OP and say he does call with all his mid PP then he calls just over half the time, so the shove is still good but way more marginal.

Pre, folding seems fine, but I hate calling - playing this OOP sucks, even though we'd have position on the fish.

As for 4betting being better if it was only vs. BTN, don't you think the extra dead money compensates for doing it into 2 players?

Well that's really the question. Is it dead money or not? Do you have a lot of fold equity in that situation? IME there is very little so it's not really dead.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by abelardx

Well that's really the question. Is it dead money or not? Do you have a lot of fold equity in that situation? IME there is very little so it's not really dead.

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Thanks. Sometimes my thinking sucks - this is one of those times, you are right - although the BTN has created some dead money, I think the SBs money is very much live at least until he's seen a flop - I do still think his money can be dead postflop though.

I think I like the way you play the hand, albeit post-flop is marginal. SB is going to come along often against a 4bet after cold calling the 3bet, but going to miss the flop a lot since he's ak often. Plus he's likely got his entire roll on this table, so won't want to waste it by hero calling high cards and ruining his couple of hours of planned entertainment.

i dont really like the flop. cant see the fish folding any pair here at all (that's why he's a fish. + this board actually looks really safe for his pocket pairs). i also think your assessment of his range as all pairs, all suited aces, and all broadways is a bit far-fetched for a 4b pot. i think you are overestimating the size of his range, and thus your fold equity on this flop

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

I think I like the way you play the hand, albeit post-flop is marginal. SB is going to come along often against a 4bet after cold calling the 3bet, but going to miss the flop a lot since he's ak often. Plus he's likely got his entire roll on this table, so won't want to waste it by hero calling high cards and ruining his couple of hours of planned entertainment.

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@ bold 1, i agree and think we ought just fold pre because of this

@ bold 2, bear in mind we are probably perceived as having AK a lot too. cos fish logic etc etc

I hate hate hate preflop. We have already seen SB cold call a 3bet OOP in a spot that effectively squeezes himself and we are now giving him 3:1 in a spot we probably don't want him to call. On top of that, we have made the SPR the perfect size for him to not feel too uncomfortable calling the flop with any pair (and maybe even frustration calling with AK).

Flop is probably meh-ok, but I would just fold it preflop. If you want to 4bet 3way I think it needs to be bigger, and SB just isn't deep enough for that here.

Yeah don't like preflop either. Flop is marginal as well and actually really bad in cases where either A: his range is actually like TT-QQ mostly here or B: he stations off AK/AQ. One of these is true a fair amount so idk I don't mind the shove in a one street vacuum for making the best of a -EV situation whole hand wise, but it illustrates why preflop is so bad.

I can completely see this play when you have reads on SB running 55/8, never folding 3bets, cold calling all sorts or garbage. THen for sure, this is a good spot to take advantage of dead money.

But you have ZERO HANDS on SB, so I don't like it.