HALP! deep with AA.

Thoughts on my line here. I think preflop should probably be a flat since I have 2 squeezers ahead and we're almost 200bbs deep. I decide to check the flop here and just call down pretty much any run out with the Ah. I don't love getting raised and don't think I want to try get stack in here?

Turn call seems std

On the river, I was deciding whether I could ever b/f. We can't really have flushes here and he certainly can so I was a little wary of bet/calling big. I decided this sizing might induce based on the fact our range is capped so thought I'd b/c small. Our range is airless as well as capped on this river so a small value bet makes sense if I'm not b/f right?

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 200.73 BB (VPIP: 22.80, PFR: 19.51, 3Bet Preflop: 9.86, Hands: 1,100)
CO: 110.92 BB (VPIP: 39.45, PFR: 26.61, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 114)
Hero (BTN): 190.1 BB
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 26.35, PFR: 22.21, 3Bet Preflop: 13.81, Hands: 1,223)
BB: 137.6 BB (VPIP: 24.25, PFR: 18.56, 3Bet Preflop: 15.25, Hands: 347)
UTG: 126.68 BB (VPIP: 23.76, PFR: 18.81, 3Bet Preflop: 6.09, Hands: 1,040)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:heart: A:diamond:

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 9 BB

Flop: (25.5 BB, 2 players) J:heart: 2:heart: 8:diamond:
MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: (25.5 BB, 2 players) 9:heart:
MP bets 15.5 BB, Hero calls 15.5 BB

River: (56.5 BB, 2 players) A:spade:
MP checks, Hero bets 20 BB,

By far his most likely hands are 99-KK, bet the flop

I don't mind the flop check but I'd raise the turn.

I'd bet the flop for sure (i dont expect people to be aggro enough for checking back the flop to be worth it) and call the turn as played, when you call you're hand looks like AhQ or AhK and that's very good since our hand is much better. River I actually like this bet size because it looks exactly like AhK and AhQ and we should get a set to c/r.

Why you don't bet the flop? In situations like this you will always have to bet the flop, because if you don't then you give to your opponent an opportunity to make flush or straight, and to lose your winning hand.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by STILL_mkd

Why you don't bet the flop? In situations like this you will always have to bet the flop, because if you don't then you give to your opponent an opportunity to make flush or straight, and to lose your winning hand.

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This logic isnt that great. We should take free equity into consideration in our decisions but in this specific decision free equity is not a big deal. First off, some of the flush draws that are likely in a 3bet pot, AKhh, AQhh, AThh, are impossible because we have the Ah. Secon
dly, we want high unpaired card to draw because they are going to be drawing to the second worst hand. We are afraid of QT, QThh, and KQhh, but thats about it, and even if those hands hit on the turn we do have suckout equity and small implied odds.

The biggest reason to bet imo is that we get the most value from one pair hands i.e. pps and QJ/KJ/AJ/JT and flush draws. Flush draws can c/r all in or float and one pair hands we have at least two streets of value against. Most players at 100nl are not nearly aggressive enough to warrant checking back hands this strong. I would go with bet/check/bet a lot of the time to catch missed fds and see if low pps turn their hands into bluffs. It also seems like the weakest looking like on a lot of run outs.