[10NL] QQ...BvB. Mistake on river?

Villain is a nit over small sample, 7/7/10 (3bet) over 32 hands. This was villain's first blind he had defended.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $4.00
CO: $10.34
BTN: $12.36
Hero (SB): $10.35
BB: $8.80
UTG: $4.10

Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q:club: Q:spade:

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60, 2 players) 2:club: 7:club: 5:diamond:
Hero bets $0.30, BB calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.20, 2 players) 9:club:
Hero bets $0.85, BB calls $0.85

River: ($2.90, 2 players) 4:diamond:
Hero checks, BB bets $1.70, Hero ???

Is checking the river a mistake here? I'm not sure what part of a nits range allows him to continue on flop and turn; sets and maybe TT-JJ is all I can think of.

I guess he could have a flush, although I think he would raise on the turn a good % of the time.

I think I have put myself in a bad spot when I didn't need to. I think b/f is a much better option, I'm just never fully comfortable betting 3 streets OOP w/ an overpair. Probably something I have to work on.

I think betting 1.35 or so on the river is decent on this spot and folding to a raise. It's bvb so his raise will be wider than the 7/7 his stats suggest.

As played, once I check this river I feel like I too often c/c and am showed a flush. This tight of a villain is the type that would just call a FD on flop and just call turn.

i am folding, no surprize here. cant see what he could bet river that we beat.

I'd b/f river and I also have the same discomfort as you OOP against this kind of villain when I'm holding an overpair - I like your smallish sizing on the earlier streets because OOP you have to play your hand fast (ie. bet-bet-bet), but you also don't want a bloated river pot, so being able to make about a half pot sized bet here seems just fine to me.

I would certainly be the river, around 40% of pot, and fold to a reraise, he may have floated on flop and turn, or maybe he causht a pair and thinks you were trying to steal his blind. Did you steal his blind lots of times? Maybe he adapted his game

I honestly just wanna check/fold this river. Of course his range is wider than 7/7 defending his BB but I just don't think we're good here very often. What are we getting value from? He probably 3-bets JJ, maybe even TT preflop. He's gonna check back other pairs like 88, A7, etc. Maybe I'm way off base here, but yeah, I'm giving up on the river.

Anybody like a blocker bet of third pot against this guy, rather than standard b/f sizing? He's not the kind to turn his hand into a bluff imo.

I think timing tells are also pretty important in this spot.

I think that you made a mistake when you check the river. You should raise to $1.25 or something. In situations like this you never have to go check, because you give him an opportunity to bluff you. Also for my opinion you had to make better raise on the flop, maybe something like $0.50.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by STILL_mkd

In situations like this you never have to go check, because you give him an opportunity to bluff you.

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I don't understand why giving him the chance to bluff is a problem? Not that I check this river very often, but if I check river I'm calling a bet.

I'm b/f b/f b/f here pretty much always vs this guy.

Hmmm bf, bf, cc is my standard line here. Maybe bf is better when villain is this nitty. But I'm not sure bf is that much better than cf on the river.

7/7 over 32 hands, I'm not considering him nitty as fuck just yet, more likely card dead. I expect him to have A9s 89s 9Ts 88, all hands that could easily check behind river when they could call. There's plenty more 9xs he can have too bvb I suspect.

I'm not a fan of c/c river because I don't expect him to value bet anything worse. I'd only c/c river if I felt he could bluff, but what missed draws does he have?