BC Exclusive: Continuation Betting Tutorial

Hey everybody,

A lot of the newer people have been telling me about how they feel like they're just laying on the train tracks waiting for the newer generation of players to plow them over. They've described feeling kind of helpless at the tables with the level of aggression that's going on, and I've decided to come through with some special BC Exclusives to help you figure out how to pull off the moves that they are using and what you can do to counter them so that their overwhelming aggression is used against them.

This series is designed to be for newer players and to be easy to digest. It does not include more advanced topics. Instead, it provides a good starting point that players can get comfortable with before progressing on to refining their game. Let's get started.

The Continuation Bet

If you're the aggressor before the flop, and it checks to you on the flop, you have the option to go ahead and bet. If you do so, this is called a "continuation bet" because you're continuing your aggression from the pre-flop betting. Continuation betting is an aggressive play, but it also makes sense because you were representing having a strong hand before the flop with your raise, and how you're keeping on with telling that same story of having a strong hand.

A lot of people will automatically continuation bet on almost any flop with almost any hand no matter what as long as they are up against just one person. The reason for that is that it can be very profitable. Consider the following:

A continuation bet of two-thirds the pot is always profitable if the opponent folds more than 40 percent of the time.

What makes this so interesting is that most people are going to miss the flop more than 40 percent of the time, so continuation betting makes a lot of sense.

How to Counter the Continuation Bet

The main maneuver that we're going to look at against someone who places a continuation bet is bluff raising them. Consider this rule:

Suppose that someone makes a continuation bet of two-thirds of the pot. If you raise them to three times their bet size, then you need them to fold about 55 percent of the time for your bluff to be profitable.

If someone is continuation betting with just about every hand that they have, then a lot of the time you're going to be able to bluff raise them profitably. This takes advantage of their aggression and turns it against them.

We're going to recommend that you use this play with hands that have some outs but that aren't quite good enough to call. For example, you might want to raise with two overcards or with a gutshot straight draw. Having a few outs means that they don't have to fold quite as much for your raise to be profitable since it's a semi-bluff and they can call and you still win sometimes.

Let Me Know What You Think

Do you want to see more of this BC Exclusive series? Let me know by replying to this thread.

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Suppose that someone makes a continuation bet of two-thirds of the pot. If you raise them to three times their bet size, then you need them to fold about 55 percent of the time for your bluff to be profitable.

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Stuff like this is pure gold. Most people, me included, just cannot be bothered to do all this number crunching. My thought process goes along the lines of "this dude is cbetting a lot, I reckon a x2.5 raise will get enough folds for it to be good". Note the use of the term "I reckon". I'm basically pulling numbers out of my arse, because I'm too lazy to do it properly. I'm fortunate in that I'm naturally gifted when it comes to maths, so my estimates are pretty good on the grand scale of things. But I don't apply myself to maximise my mathematical edge. Having some factual nuggets like this burned into my memory, well it gives me something to work from.

Yes more more more

I have def been caught on the bad side of the Cbet too often. I have also watched this counter maneuver many times, but could never pull the trigger myself without at least a monster draw. Looks like I have been playing too timid.

Tell us more.

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Originally Posted by FlopMonster

I have def been caught on the bad side of the Cbet too often. I have also watched this counter maneuver many times, but could never pull the trigger myself without at least a monster draw. Looks like I have been playing too timid.

Tell us more.

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I don't know how much you know about EV calculations (I can link you to my series on how to set them up with just simple multiplication), but here's an example scenario.

Suppose you have a gutshot with four outs to the nuts on the flop. A guy bets $1 into a pot of $1.50 (two-thirds of the pot), and you raise to $3 total. Let's say he folds 50% of the time, calls 30% of the time, and raises you 20% of the time. I'll put the EV calculation in spoiler tags in case you want to skip over it:

Spoiler: Show

The 50% of the time he folds, you profit the pot of $2.50.
The 20% of the time he raises, you lose your raise of $3.00.
When he calls 30% of the time...
... 4/47 of the time, you profit at least $4.50 thanks to his flop bet/call and the flop pot.
... 43/47 of the time, you usually just lose your $3.00 raise.

(0.5)(2.5) = 1.25
(0.2)(-3) = -0.6
(0.3)(4/47)(4.5) = 0.11
(0.3)(43/47)(-3) = -0.82

Total EV: -$0.06

Your EV will be slightly higher than this because sometimes when he calls and you miss, he'll check the turn and you'll get to check through to an extra card. Also, sometimes when he calls and you hit your turn card, you'll get extra value for your hand.

In this situation, you're going to be break even or very slightly profit. That's really all you need to help your range out and to get people to chill out on their c-bets.

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

A continuation bet of two-thirds the pot is always profitable if the opponent folds more than 40 percent of the time.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Suppose that someone makes a continuation bet of two-thirds of the pot. If you raise them to three times their bet size, then you need them to fold about 55 percent of the time for your bluff to be profitable.

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Question: How have you determined those percentages?

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Originally Posted by Circuits

Question: How have you determined those percentages?

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Come chat with me and I'll explain it to you quick-and-easy. Here's the link: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ng-197623.html

I'll be on most of today, but I'll send you a PM to see if you need to schedule another time.

Circuits came into the chat today, and he's been getting help from myself and yAAwn, aka the Canadian Destroyer.

And thanks to both of you - was very helpful.