Good spot to raise the cbet?

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

Button ($0.93)
SB ($10.60)
BB ($10.70)
UTG ($5.15)
MP ($5)
Hero (CO) ($14.83)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif
2 folds, Hero raises $0.20, 1 fold, SB raises $0.43, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.95) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
SB bets $0.54, Hero raises $1.40


Layout vpip/pfr/steal%/Fsteal%/3bet/cbet/fold to cbet

Villain's stats - 17/13/25/64/5/86/50

This villain didn't seem good, but at the same time he didn't seem spewy. Only thing worth noting is this is the first time he deviated from his normal 3bet size of 3x the bet.

Calling is probably more profitable. It could be more profitable in a vacuum to raise if your opponent makes ridiculous folds, however consider the following:

AJ, AQ, KQ, (KJ, AT and even potentially worse kickers) and bluffs are going to bet A and K turns giving you implied odds - if you don't have Ax and Kx in flop call range on later streets it can put you in weird spots where you are over folding frequently facing barrels, and allowing AT to just value bet for stacks when in reality it shouldn't be able to be so profitable.

Summary:
-You have the best hand and will get to show it down sometimes.
-You can bluff spade turns and follow up on rivers.
-You protect yourself on Ax and Kx runouts.

Wow, thanks for the input. I'd never thought about it like that, makes a lot of sense.

My thought process was he raised a non-standard amount so was probably a lot wider than usual, I remember a few orbits before this he had AA and raised 3x the guy's bet, so I'd pretty much removed QQ+ from his range and added in more broadways, low-mid PP's and Ax type stuff. Because of this I thought he'd be folding a lot especially on that board and I wanted to capitalise on it, I knew it was unlikely he'd fold a better hand on the flop but I could make him fold a better hand on the turn or river, or I could always just get there and value bet.

Wouldn't get hung up on the non-standard size. His standard size will be 9bb for 3betting, not 3x (unless the AA hand villain also opened 4x).

Folding flop wouldn't be good, but nobody's going to answer you better than M2M so we can probably end the thread.

The Bean Counter makes a good point about not getting hung up on the non-standard size. Trying to figure out what a random person is thinking about his sizing strategy is not only mentally exhausting, it's more likely you'll make a mistake trying to interpret exactly what it means. Playing solid and balanced will screw these guys up when they realize they aren't taking advantage of you in any way with your response to the different sizing, and by making silly moves they are often just costing themselves value.

Changing perspective on sizing: If you're playing with the same guy every day and have logged 10s of thousands of hands with him, then it may be a good idea to go through your database and work on digging deeper into his different sizing's because you will have a more compelling sample to work with. This won't be relevant until you're playing something like $3/$6 and higher though, and most high volume players at that limit aren't mixing their sizing's without being able to show up with any hand regardless of it.

It would help if you ask yourself, "If I'm raising as a bluff, what better hands are folding? or will fold to heat on subsequent streets?"

It's pretty clear on this board that no better hands other than maybe a hand like 44/66 might peel flop and fold turn.

So that leaves calling or folding. Given you just flatted pre, I'd say having AK here is pretty deceptive and a very strong hand. Too strong to fold the flop, so just call.

I like your analysis on this one Griffey. And M2M's, I raised because he was cbetting way too often so I expected to get a tonne of folds and realize some immediate EV, I had never considered if calling would be more profitable or not but I'd say it wouldn't even be close since he's likely to barrel any A or K on the turn and I can always raise spade turns with good pot equity and fold equity since his turn range is going to be so wide.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by seven-deuce

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Yes, and don't overlook the part where he said you have SD value. This is arguably the most important part. When you start to get better and start playing wider ranges profitably, then everyone (fish and regs alike) are going to feel inclined to play back at you, and you'll really start to regret bluffing unnecessarily. The times that you can keep the pot small and save your bullets for those inevitable playable-but-completely-bereft-of-SD-value hands will feel like a breath of fresh air.

If you get monkey with any old hand with overcards or backdoor outs, then even the fish will accidentally exploit you by calling any old pair, and folding when big overcards hit, so now all you're accomplishing is building the pot while you're behind and hoping you suckout on fish.

I realize that's a very general answer to a very specific HH question, but it seems like you need help with overall improvement more than just figuring out some sticky spots. Besides, M2M already thread ended this posts ago.