Triple barrel bluff this spot? 100NL

I just sat down for about 3-4 orbits. Nothing worth mentioning has happened, just standard plays. While waiting for my blind, I did see villain call down two streets AJo midpair on flop and then check back the river, though this was BvB and against the table fish fwiw.

I believe villain's range is 77-JJ, KT+, assuming he 3bs AK and QQ. If I bet half pot, I need him to fold 33% of the time. If I think villain can fold 77-JJ, which is 39% of his range, then I can bet this river profitably. Ofc without more history, I am not sure if villain would actually call turn against me (an unknown reg) with 77 or higher pairs (thus reducing his folding range) or if villain would peel flop with say Ace high and then call turn with Axcc (which would increase his folding range). These are my thoughts on the river for making a half pot bet. Worst case scenario, I get called which would allow me to value bet thinner against villain and maybe even the other two players if they are paying attention.

Good/bad reasoning on river?



BB (€141.50)
Hero (UTG) (€111.03)
Button (€155.07)
SB (€100.50)


Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
Hero raises €3, Button calls €3, 2 folds


Flop: (€7.50) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets €5, Button calls €5


Turn: (€17.50) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets €12, Button calls €12


River: (€41.50) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)

If I'm not mistaken, the zeitgeist has moved toward 3b'ing a more linear range, even in position. This makes it tougher for him to have 99-JJ, and he'll probably auto-call down with any Kx (he probably doesn't really have much of a flop raising range on this board). That said, I think the bigger part of his folding range is 6x, especially 65s, and other than busted clubs, we're probably very near the best barrelling hand we can have here (6x/55/44 have non-zero SDV, we're very near our worst Ax and we don't have any club blockers, and a single overcard is about the best we can hope for in terms of barrelling this turn with outs). And of course our value range is huge if villain is 3b'ing linearly.

So it's probably not possible for it to be too bad to fire here, but I might be misinterpreting/overstating our post-Janda poker landscape.

A9o on k62r slots nicely into a check/folding range. It's quite exploitable to bet all your bluffs up to A9 strength, and you need delayed cbet bluffs to balance your weaker Kx and JJ-type hands as well, so check/folding isn't necessarily giving up on the pot.

On the turn, similarly you're choosing a very poor hand to continue this bluff. You'll already be bluffing with club draws and 5x/4x gutters, and it's a turn he's unlikely to fold anyway. So if you bet turn with such a bad hand, you'll probably need to follow through profitably on a large percentage of rivers to justify this turn bet.

That said, this is the blankest possible river card so unless you have a 3rd level dynamic with this player that he's folding hands as strong as KT on this card, I wouldn't advise bluffing this river. Your best bluffs here are hands with a card-removal element, such as QJ which blocks KQ and KJ, or 65 which blocks the straight and 66.

Renton is astoundingly right on all fronts. The thing I need to work on the most in my game is fitting our hand into our own range, especially difficult when ranges are as wide as CO open -> cbet on K62r.

I think if I got to the river like this I'd probably bet my whole stack. c/f flop is just fine though and I even like c/c.

A9o is an ex-showdown equity underdog against most betting ranges on the flop, so c/c would definitely be an exploitative adjustment to players that bet once and give up too often, but probably negative EV against strong players who bet a reasonably balanced range over three streets.

You think hes going ti start calling down to TT , AJ If we show up on 3rd barrel w/ Ahigh? Othereise makes no sense to me. If so, shouldnt se develop a 3rd barrel range bluff under 33% vs pur value range so that his river calling is -EV? If hes calling 3 strrets TT+/AJ+/KT+ how do se decide on pur bluffs and do se keep count? Shoud se predefine a bluff range?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Renton

this is the blankest possible river card so unless you have a 3rd level dynamic with this player that he's folding hands as strong as KT on this card, I wouldn't advise bluffing this river.

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Yeah, having called the turn I think he's calling the river too with this blank.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Renton

A9o is an ex-showdown equity underdog against most betting ranges on the flop, so c/c would definitely be an exploitative adjustment to players that bet once and give up too often, but probably negative EV against strong players who bet a reasonably balanced range over three streets.

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I'm saying it would be fine against an unknown at 100nl. Probably not a bad play vs Phil Ivey if you're the unknown. Reg vs reg I'd c/f mostly.

People like to have "something" when they're pure floating. K/A hi dry flops are decent spots to be one-and-done with. Or three barrel bluff like here.

honestly I would like to know what the runout of the board was in the AJo hand, and whether he was SB or BB. I think this will tell more of what decision to make than anything. its been 4 orbits, you cant know too much about his "tendencies" so you have one showdown to go off of.
if he was the BB in said hand, and did NOT 3bet, then I would of never opened this hand to begin with. since you did however I think I would c/c here anything less than 1/2 pot. you know he will check back a strong middle pair, you don't know he if he will call a 3rd bet but on that river I say you don't have much fold equity. your range looks like Kx or air, your UTG and 4 handed, you could very well be bluffing here. I just think betting this hand, in this spot, on this river, is getting called too often to be profitable. especially without history. I mean you get his air to fold, everything else is pretty much tank calling or shoving(66,33,KK,). that's why I would c/c and take note of what he bet and the board he bet so I can use it later in the game. I had a scenario 2, but then I realized you said he checked back, which means he had position, which means he was BB :wall: