Here's a fun question that has to do with an upcoming strategy column:
You're getting all-in pre-flop heads-up. Would you rather get in $23 with 55 percent equity, or would you rather get in $11 with 60 percent equity?
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Here's a fun question that has to do with an upcoming strategy column:
You're getting all-in pre-flop heads-up. Would you rather get in $23 with 55 percent equity, or would you rather get in $11 with 60 percent equity?
assuming no BRM issues 23$ with 55% equity
$11 with 60% do I need to post why? or is this part of the exercise??lol
I would rather $23 with 55%. In 100 hands I am winning $1265 (55*23) and losing $1035, which is $2.3 per hand ((1265-1035)/100). $11 at 60% we are only winning $2.2.
I think your math is wrong thereQuote:
Originally Posted by Openside
100 trials
$23 with 55% equity
$46 won 55 times =$2530
$23 lost 45 times =$1035
net profit = $1495/100 = $14.95 per hand avg ( 65% of original amount)
$11 60% equity
$22 won 60 times =$1320
$11 lost 40 times =$440
net profit = $880/100 = $8.8 per hand avg ( 80% of original amount)
hopefully spoon with chime in with right answer.
EV of A) $23 * 0.55 + $0 * 0.45 = $12.65
EV of B) $11 *0.60 + $0 * 0.40 = $6.60
Bet A maximizes the EV per bet, and is the optimal choice if only 1 bet is made.
Bet B maximizes the equity, and is the optimal choice if many bets can be made.
A simple examination shows that making bet B 2 times returns more EV ($13.20) for less investment ($22) than placing bet A 1 time.
EDIT: yeah, disregard this. After seeing the other replies, it is clear that I made assumptions that are different from other people's assumptions. Spoon: please indicate the amount of the wager, and the amount of dead money in the pot.
In general, my answer holds that the bet with the greatest equity should be made as often as possible.
well played sir.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
so as a single instance A is better. but longterm B is better. I just automatically assumed it was a longterm question and not a single instance.
See my edit, quick draw McGraw. :)
lol that wasn't there before.. :facepalm:Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
My level one thinking can not get passed the fact that while yes the % ROI may be higher for $11 at 60%, i will still make more money in 100 hands with $23 at 55%.
Personally I wonder if the money here is what matters. Your EV is going to be far more important in the long term. Poker is not a one hand game. It's about making EV choices. When you are moving up the stakes you need to be making EV plays and the money will come. I want the 60% at every stake. I want the 60% all in for 100BB+ stacks. I find it hard to believe we ever look at the money if we are true poker players. The money is the result of the EV
If you get all-in pre-flop for $23 with 55 percent equity, then your EV is:Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
($23 * 0.55) + (-$23 * 0.45) = $2.30
If you get all-in pre-flop for $11 with 60 percent equity, then your EV is:
($11 * 0.60) + (-$11 * 0.40) = $2.20
The idea here is to get people thinking about why five percent more equity gave us almost the same EV even though we were getting in like half the amount of money.
And here is this week's strategy column on the subject: The Relationship Between Equity and Expected Value
what's my bankroll?Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
what's the rake structure?
I think that's some missing info: tournament for example?Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
But in general get $23 with 55% equtity.