25nl 99 full house, great board, river sizing?

It's a new year resolution to reengage in the BC, I've been slack in recent months.

Still no HUD, relying entirely on notes. I'm playing out of my bankroll, taking a shot at 25nl and hoping to beat variance for the first few sessions. So far so good. I have a step down amount in mind and have plenty of experience of all levels up to 25nl, so I don't feel like I'm taking too many risks. I have funds on FTP to move over in the event I tilt my bankroll away, plus some IRL funds which can be loaded up if needs be. Needless to say I'm being much more aggressive with my bankroll in an attempt to get back to 25nl or even 50nl where I can hopefully earn an income rather than living off benefits. I'm sick of microdonking my way through my poker career to be honest, it's all or nothing time. Anyway...

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Hero (Button) ($75.53)
SB ($30.38)
BB ($45.48)
UTG ($25.63)
MP ($25.10)
CO ($55.46)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.10) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BB calls $2.50

River: ($9.10) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ?


No notes on this villain. My question is river sizing. I think villain has flush draws and pairs 7x 8x 9x and maybe some smaller pairs that he's floating. Obviously there's two combos of quads that beat me, but I'm not worried about those because there's two combos of A8s, and I doubt that's all the 8x he can have when he's bb facing button open. I'm not expecting TT+ very often at all, I'd expect to get 3b pre more often than not against a random, but he'll have them occasionally.

I'm unsure about making it a standard $5, betting big like $15, or just outright shoving. I'm not expecting his 8x to fold ever, his 7x will call $5 but will baulk at a $15+ bet, and his junk folds to any bet. I have no idea what to do here, all I know is I like this spot a great deal.

Thoughts about the hand welcome, and also my risky bankroll strategy. FYI My roll on stars would have been $240 before this session, with $70 on FTP and another $100 that can be loaded from IRL funds. My failsafe startegy is to step down to 10nl at $100, 5nl at $50, and 2nl at $20, stepping back when the tide turns. Crazy perhaps, but I'm bored shitless of being a broke microdonk.

I would say try to hone in on it.

If you min-bet, what's the EV?

If you bet redic tiny, but not a min-bet... at what bet size does it change Villain's range?
What's the EV below and above that point where sizing changes Villain's range?

Keep chasing this up the line assuming bigger bets, and guessing how Villain's range is changed by your bet sizing.

***
I feel like I can see Tom Dwan doing this in his head in vintage Poker After Dark and High Stakes Poker episodes.
Right before he makes a mind-bogglingly sick overbet with an airball that gets a fold from a Villain who was almost certainly calling down "any bet."

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

It's a new year resolution to reengage in the BC and start a blogs&ops thread

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fyp

you can go bigger on the flop without influencing villain's calling range here
as played $3.80ish on turn
river as played i like 4 or 8.

re the bankroll strategy, you're basically talking a $400 roll, $240 of which is sitting on stars = 16 stacks at 25nl, 10 on stars. Give it a shot, sure, if that's what you feel like. Consider changing the failsafe to move down to 16nl (rather than 10nl) if you drop to $140, something like that. Thing is that it takes a while to grind back up, so if you move up with a 3-4 buyin stoploss then it takes less time to get back up there if it doesn't stick first time around. What's your roll rule for moving up to 50?

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Thoughts about the hand welcome, and also my risky bankroll strategy. FYI My roll on stars would have been $240 before this session, with $70 on FTP and another $100 that can be loaded from IRL funds. My failsafe startegy is to step down to 10nl at $100, 5nl at $50, and 2nl at $20, stepping back when the tide turns. Crazy perhaps, but I'm bored shitless of being a broke microdonk.

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Your BRM is far looser than mine.

I guess the 10BI step down makes sense for the bottom levels.

I stepped up from 5NL to 10NL with 25BI ($250), and I would have stepped back down to 5NL if I dropped down to $200 (5BI stop loss).

I pushed that up to $550 at 10NL and took a couple of break-even shots at 25NL. I'm currently still here, since I've really stopped playing much poker.

I would take the same approach now that I'm off my 8+ hour daily grind schedule. I would start taking shots at 25NL again if I pushed my $550 up to $625. I'd step back to 10NL if I dropped 5 BI (down to $500).

I'd seriously consider a 30 up / 25 down step @ 50NL.

Being told to bet flop more doesn't surprise me, but your turn sizing does surprise me daven. I don't want flush draws to fold, obviously, and I don't expect flush draws to call near pot size turn bets on a paired board. Certainly I'd be snapfolding a fd to your turn bet.

As for blogs, I've done that the last two years and quickly forgotten about them. I think I'm better off posting hands here.

I dunno about 50nl, I played some last night because I was having a huge downswing at 10nl and foolishly decided that the right thing to do was step up to 50nl and either blow my stars roll or recover my losses. Seemed like a better idea than blowing my roll at 10nl tilting like an idiot. I played much better 1-tabling 50nl than I did 4-tabling 10nl, recovered my losses and went to bed. I know I'm not totally out of my depth at 50nl, but I'm not sure I'm long-term profitable at those stakes, especially without a HUD. I think I should leave 50nl until I can buy myself a new computer so I can get a HUD running once more. Oh and yeah I forgot 16nl was a thing, I'll prob look at that if I'm down to $150.

mojo, I'll consider that idea. Only problem is that it's time consuming and assumption heavy. I have no idea what villain will call with his 7x because I have no idea how fishy he is. I find out how much he'll call by making bets, not by making assumptions. Do I start small and make it bigger as he calls, or do I start big and make it smaller as he folds?

On this occasion I made it big. I bet $15 and as he was tanking I felt that this was the worst bet of the three that I considered. If he calls $15 then he probably calls a shove, that was my thinking. My standard bet here would be $5, thinking I get calls from 7x 8x and not much else, so I figured that betting x3 that amount and getting called by around half as many combos was optimal. But if he has 8x, then he isn't folding at all.

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Your BRM is far looser than mine.

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I've been really tight with my bankroll strategy for years, and all it's done is stop me going broke. It hasn't got me to progress through the stakes.

is the no HUD from not forking out for PT4 /HEM2 upgrade or cos computer is shite . "IRL funds that can be uploaded".....Ong just harvested a crop

lol I wish I'd just finished a crop. Nah it's just that since I quit smoking tobacco, I'm saving money slowly. And the lack of HUD is purely down to this computer being fucking awful. I can run a HUD but it comes at the expense of music. If I have both, then the comp walks at a snail's pace. Music is essential, more so than a HUD.

can't you use your phone to stream music then run the hud on the puter

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Originally Posted by Keith

can't you use your phone to stream music then run the hud on the puter

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God no. I hate my phone. Whenever I try to do anything on it, I want to throw it against the wall. The last thing I need when I'm trying to play poker is to be pissing about with my phone.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

On this occasion I made it big. I bet $15 and as he was tanking I felt that this was the worst bet of the three that I considered. If he calls $15 then he probably calls a shove, that was my thinking. My standard bet here would be $5, thinking I get calls from 7x 8x and not much else, so I figured that betting x3 that amount and getting called by around half as many combos was optimal. But if he has 8x, then he isn't folding at all.

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Wouldn't overbetting the river chase out some of those stations / fish that may have come this far with overpair and potentially call $5-6? If so, the number of combos that call your x3 bet may be smaller than half of your standard bet.
I've been surprised a number of times at 25nl by people calling a board like this with JJ/QQ that they played passively to SD and paid me off to a value bet

I doubt he has JJ/QQ based on pre flop. Why doesn't he 3b? Sure he's gonna flat these occasionally, but it's rare enough that I'm not going to target that part of his range. It's basically a choice between targetting his 7x and 8x, or just his 8x. I chose the latter, and bet more than twice what I would if I was targetting his 7x. That makes sense to me. If he has TT/JJ in his flatting range bb vs bu, then I should bet less for sure.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

your turn sizing does surprise me daven. I don't want flush draws to fold, obviously, and I don't expect flush draws to call near pot size turn bets on a paired board. Certainly I'd be snapfolding a fd to your turn bet.

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rep QQ+ with the bet right? you're deep and people make big mistakes all the time...

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

As for blogs, I've done that the last two years and quickly forgotten about them. I think I'm better off posting hands here.

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fair enough - a blog about quitting smoking would be amusing to follow though!

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I dunno about 50nl, I played some last night because I was having a huge downswing at 10nl and foolishly decided that the right thing to do was step up to 50nl and either blow my stars roll or recover my losses. Seemed like a better idea than blowing my roll at 10nl tilting like an idiot.

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drop to 2nl and make the 2nl grinders tilt!

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

On this occasion I made it big. I bet $15 and as he was tanking I felt that this was the worst bet of the three that I considered. .

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the $4 sizing or $8 sizing i suggested were to maximise the likelihood of raises from villain. Also, not sure how it sits with you to be sitting deep when you're playing off a thin roll? vs ratholing out

Turn bet is way too small Ong. River sizing is tough: villain has so much 10x here and barely any weak holdings that might call small that I just overbet as standard to get looked up by 8x that isn't folding to most sizes (only really a couple combos of T8s). Shoving 160bb effective into a 36bb pot just seems too big though and I think most villains will play well enough to fold 8x. I like Daven's thinking about betting to induce but just don't see many 25nl nit-regs taking the bait unless their timing indicates a tilt issue.

Well I've explained my turn sizing is to keep flush draws in the pot. It surprises me that now I have two regs telling me to bet the virtual nuts bigger on the turn when villain has so many dead draws.

Then again I'd be folding any draw on this turn, unless the bet was ridiculously small. I suppose if villain is bad enough to call Tx to this bet, he'll pay more. Is that what you guys are thinking?

why not spend the 100 dollars of irl funds for a HUD?

Because new computers cost more than $100. I'd be delighted for you to prove me wrong there.

Why not play ww?

I think given how deep we are, I couldn't see a decent flush draw, pair plus draw or overs plus draw folding turn at 25nl vs $3.25/$3.50 as you don't have that many nutted combos here. Even AcTx will chk/call larger I think. We really want to have a bigger pot on the river too to get more value, or to at least start to threaten stacks with your better bluffs.

I see all the comments about turn sizing, I mean I might bet $3 at most. we have the nuts, lol villain is unknown with just under 200BBs. we can assume hes O-K. betting big OTT would be great but then our larger bet OTR will make him think. honestly, I think you played it perfectly, I would tank down to like 2 seconds and bet $12. you might get looked up by some random shit here, your sizing was decent on flop, small on turn and now you tank bet pot? villains first instinct will tell him you missed your FD.betting bigger OTT makes villains range narrower OTR and also less likely to pay off with weaker hands.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

mojo, I'll consider that idea.

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You sound like a BC noob who is fighting the advice to think about ranges.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Only problem is that it's time consuming

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It's time consuming? Are you about to tell me how your life as a single, unemployed man is so hectic that you just can't find the time?

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

and assumption heavy.

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Of course it's assumption heavy. So was your sense of ranges when you first started thinking about ranges. It was all guess work with a lot of surprises along the way. (Who'm I kidding by using past tense? Thinking about ranges is an ongoing practice.)

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I have no idea what villain will call with his 7x because I have no idea how fishy he is.

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You have no idea how fishy he is? Really? NO idea? None whatsoever? Not one tiny read on Villain? Not even a player pool read?

Well, lucky us! This is the perfect opportunity to think about what YOU would do if you were in Villain's position. Once we've established a base-line, we can use that as a guide for analyzing future spots.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I find out how much he'll call by making bets, not by making assumptions. Do I start small and make it bigger as he calls, or do I start big and make it smaller as he folds?

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Now you're just being stubborn.

:h: I have much love for the ong; I mean all of this as friendly needling.

***
This exercise is well worth your time. You are too good of a player to keep thinking there is a "right" bet sizing outside of player reads. It's the ability to read Villains that defines Hero's edge in NLHE.

You should already be thinking about what your bets do to Villain's ranges. You almost certainly construct your 3-bet ranges PRE with the knowledge of Villain's continuing range. This works because you and Villain have a silent agreement over 3-bet sizing. The fact that the sizing of 3-bets is fairly standard makes your response fairly standard. It took a long while for you to get a grip on this tactic, but I'm sure you understand it now more than you did years ago.

This exercise in speculating how to exploit Villains by varying your bet-sizing is a huge deal. It will save you at least a BB off every loss and gain you an extra BB off every win.

Sizing on flop and turn seem fine to me. I could handle slightly bigger on the turn, up to $3 probably.

Giving how the hand played out, timing etc, what's your read on villain? What do you think his most likely holdings are? Is he heavily weighted towards 8x? Does it feel like 7x?

I would probably either bet 3/4 pot, and hope to induce a raise from 7x or 8x, or overbet slightly around 10.50-11.50.

mojo -

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It's time consuming? Are you about to tell me how your life as a single, unemployed man is so hectic that you just can't find the time?

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Unfortunately my time bank at the table isn't as generous as my schedule.

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You have no idea how fishy he is? Really? NO idea? None whatsoever? Not one tiny read on Villain? Not even a player pool read?

Well, lucky us! This is the perfect opportunity to think about what YOU would do if you were in Villain's position. Once we've established a base-line, we can use that as a guide for analyzing future spots.

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Yup, villain is complete unknown because I'm not using a hud, and I have no notes.

And that's exactly what I'm doing. I'm asking myself what the largest bet is that I would consider calling a turn bet with, holding a nfd on a paired board. Personally I've got no problem making exploitable folds with draw on these boards, but I'd still make a crying call at $2, and probably a little more. That was my thought process on the turn. I'm putting myself in villain's shoes because I have no reads.

You make mostly fair points, but you're slapping me down for basically not running through multiple bet sizes and adjusting ranges at the point of decision. This is precisely why I posted this hand. Because I want to have a better idea naturally how to bet here. I don't want to have to think too deeply about this at the table, certainly I'd like my decision to be made by the time my timebank starts to decrease. If I'm thinking about ranges and sizes from the point of minbetting all the way up to shoving, I'm gonna be going deep into my time bank, and ultimately I probably bet around $2.50 because I want flush draws to call and think that's the absolute most that I'd pay with such a hand. My thought process is still likely to default to "what's the most I'd call with Axcc", because I lack any reads on the villain himself.

I think to go through the thought process that you're suggesting, I need to have a good solid idea of villain's tendancies so I'm not making too many assumptions. I realise that it appears I'm turning my nose up at your methods, that's not my intention. I'm suggesting that it's too time consuming at the tables, that Dwan can do it because he's brilliant at processing the information quickly enough.

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Giving how the hand played out, timing etc, what's your read on villain? What do you think his most likely holdings are? Is he heavily weighted towards 8x? Does it feel like 7x?

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My gut told me he had a flush draw and was folding to any bet. If I recall correctly, he called flop quickly but took a little more time to call the turn. I suppose this could hint at 7x too, but I basically got greedy and went after his 8x.

Sorry if you felt slapped. I mean, slapping you sounds pretty fun, but I didn't mean to do so here. :p
I'm not trying to criticize you. I'm just having a bit of fun with one of my internet besties.

I'm not suggesting you take the time in the hand to go through the exercise. I do think that it's well worth your time to do it occasionally during off-table study.

Just like anything else, the more you practice, the more adept you'll be. Even when pressed to a quick decision, that practice serves to guide you.

***
This goes out to all posters on FTR:

You are way too smart and observant to have 0 reads on any player ever. EVER! STFU with that noise.

Stack size, player pool, position, all these things give you hints as to player type. YES, they're soft, but it's a bit disheartening to hear people shy away from making a freaking hypothesis. Its a guess. Make it. Act on it. Be scientifically curious to the accuracy of your guesses, but make them and act on them.

The bottom line is that you're guessing no matter what. You either force yourself to think about it consciously or you continue to let your primitive, jumping-at-shadows sub-conscious try to throttle you with a knot in your gut.