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Ok so common spot at 10nl and below.
Hero has a range on the bb.
Folds to unknown villain in MP, who openshoves 100bb. Folds to hero.
What is villain's range? And, consequently, what should we be calling?
And does anyone think these guys are making more money with their KK+ than I am?
I'm trying to understand if they're making a mistake or not. Intuition tells me they are losing value, but I have no idea how often they need to be called before it becomes a better move than simply raising.
if they have 50bb or less i'm calling with 99+ AQ+ . thats been a default range for me in that spot since the time stars went with the 50bb buyin tables experiment and higher stakes friend worked out that that was a profitable calling range vs their shoves.
50bb and less is a much easier spot to be fair. 99 is marginal and I'd prob default fold that, at least until I know villain is shoving worse pairs. But 100b openshoves and 3b shoves, I see it so much at low stakes and I'm not sure if these muppets are actually getting more value than I am with their premiums.
depends if they are the one off shoves or one hand in three. with the latter i probably call with AT+ , 88+, KQ+. if they are one offs then its pretty easy to tighten up to QQ+,AK+. gonna be high variance though.
QQ+ AK is my default, but I've been caught twice now with QQ and run into AA both times. I'm thinking I'm only ever up against KK+ AK, which makes QQ and AK awful calls. I always make a note when I see this, so I can adjust my range if they're doing it too often. I've certainly seen some muppets go wild with all sorts of shit, but I'm starting to think that the majority of the time it's premium hands and villain is simply trying to get value from hands that many at the micros just will not fold pre flop, like JJ+ AQs+ AK, sometimes wider, while avoiding getting fucked by small pairs and scs.
I started this topic to basically discuss the idea of folding QQ/AK to such a shove, assuming we have no reason to think villain is doing this often.
I actually had a similar thought yesterday after finding myself in this same situation with QQ twice. Once he flipped AA, the second time JJ so I'm not yet convinced about folding QQ pre here.
See it much more commonly at 6max than FR
Well JJ doing this doesn't make QQ a call, we need TT to be in the range. QQ is losing to JJ+ AK. It's flipping against TT+ AK, I'd assume slight favourite.
This doesn't happen often and that is why you're making insane conclusions based off what I can only consider tilt.
Read this quote a few times and realise it's nonsense.Quote:
I've been caught twice now with QQ and run into AA both times. I'm thinking I'm only ever up against KK+ AK
This does happen often. At 10nl I'll see this four or five times an hour, no kidding. I assume you're at 25nl where it's much rarer.
Granted you're very likely right about my comment being nonsense.
Sure. But I think TT+ AK IS in the range.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Speaking of, this JUST happened;
PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 236.52 BB (VPIP: 15.65, PFR: 9.35, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 440)
Hero (SB): 99.8 BB
BB: 76.56 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
UTG: 138.6 BB (VPIP: 15.22, PFR: 11.58, 3Bet Preflop: 1.91, Hands: 1,204)
UTG+1: 137 BB (VPIP: 11.90, PFR: 10.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 86)
MP: 107.4 BB (VPIP: 18.07, PFR: 9.66, 3Bet Preflop: 2.08, Hands: 743)
MP+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 10.45, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 222)
MP+2: 174 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 26)
CO: 113.4 BB (VPIP: 19.74, PFR: 16.68, 3Bet Preflop: 2.32, Hands: 1,587)
Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K:heart: K:diamond:
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, BB raises to 76.56 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 72.56 BB
Flop: (153.12 BB, 2 players) 9:spade: Q:club: 5:diamond:
Turn: (153.12 BB, 2 players) J:diamond:
River: (153.12 BB, 2 players) 6:club:
[spoil]Hero shows K:heart: K:diamond: (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 68%, Flop 76%, Turn 70%)
BB mucks A:diamond: Q:diamond: (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 32%, Flop 24%, Turn 30%)
Hero wins 146.24 BB
[/spoil]
They never do it to me when I have AA or KK!
I'm glad to see AQs doing this. Now show me tens do it and I'm happy QQ is profitable.
Nope, not played poker since Octoberish.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
If it happens that often you should have a sample in your database and you should do some database work to see what likely ranges are. Calling an overly tight range isn't going to be an issue if you're that worried about it. If people are doing this with AA/KK etc I hope you're noting that they are really capped when not open shoving, without assuming they never have AA/KK when they don't shove.
QQ vs [JJ+ AQs+ AK]... that's gotta be close, I don't actually know if we're ahead here, my equity sense fail me here.
I haven't got a database savy. I am making notes though, and ctrl/folding to see if anyone calls.
Just went through my database - I haven't got any hands against me doing it but I'm sure I've seen TT do it so must have been against someone else. I'll have to figure out how to filter hands that I'm not in after preflop action to look for those.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
I did find 3 shoves by villain with the following though that may help your decision; AJs, A4s and QKs
If those ranges are in, QQ surely is profitable..
(disclaimer: I only have 21 hands where someone donkeyshoved me like this and I called in my database. 16 of those I was holding AA or KK, the other 5 I had QQ up against AA or KK and one A4s)
Yeah there's no question that QQ utterly crushes a range with those hands in. We can go even wider if we know villain has that kind of stuff in. Still, 99-JJ seems hopeful, I'm still thinking QQ+ AK is a safe tight range here.
And savy has a point about capped ranges. If we know a villain is doing this with his premiums, then we can know when he makes a standard raise that he's folding to a 3bet more often, or at least he should be, and if he's not he's going to be in all sorts of horrid spots post flop.
I have seen all kind of pocket pairs doing this, probably depending on structure (cg? turbo?) and alcohol consumption. This is the micros, right? I would not spend too much time trying to identify a pattern here...
I meant to post a hand here but forgot and now I can't be arsed to locate it.
Basically I called a 100bb 3b shove from some muppet who I already had a note on telling me he was prone to such moves... I had AKs and he had AQs. I'm not folding QQ+ AK, and if I run into AA, well I'm stacking them more often than not anyway, so I won't care.
100bb fold AQ, fold QQ
This imo and especially with your current brm. Even at 90bb, I'm calling {99+, AK} because villain is significantly more likely to be rage jamming.Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
I just don't think I can let go of QQ now I can see AQs and worse doing this.
when you hold QQ you block AQs pretty hard ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
It's only half as likely that villain has AQ compared to AK when we hold QQ. And when we see hands like AQs doing it, we have to assume JJ is doing it too, and possibly worse pairs and/or Ax. I'm folding jacks and AQ, assuming no notes, but QQ is a heavy fold against these muppets.
That AQs example above is for 77bb Ong, so it's likely villain is a raging tard that is jamming wide. QQ would be a call imo in that spot.
qq+, ak vs jj+, ak is a 53% Favorite, seems like JJ would def make this a call...especially because any random spazz would make up for the rake in my opinion, however if you are concrete that this is his range and there is no random spazz, you can drop ak unsuited if you like and your equity shoots up to 59%, and 55% against ak,qq+
kk+, ak has only 54% equity vs jj+,ak ...only 1.5% more than qq+,ak,
seems more profitable to drop the AKo than to drop qq in my opinion
qq is a 47% dawg in this fightQuote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Well that's good to know. 47% is often high enough to make it a profitable call considering dead money. Also interesting that dropping AKo does us more good than dropping QQ. I can lay down AKo without much sweat pf, it's certainly a lot easier than QQ.Quote:
Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics