2nd nuts vs turn action

Hi everyone.

Villian is a 20/14/3.9 with a 71% cb flop and 25% cb turn over 812 hand sample with an af of 2.2 and a turn agg% of 27 (85) If you need any more stats please ask and if any of these stats are irrelevant please say as i'm trying to get better with my hud.

Villian is a reg and plays pretty much abc things to note this session are that villain was playing on a few of my tables i think 3 tables and i had been running good vs him he had made 4 or 5 very disciplined lay downs on turns and rivers in big pots.

I called on the btn as i had a fish in the sb not sure if that's a big mistake and then to the turn , how bad is shoving here ? his check raise was very confusing at the time and i was unsure if he would take this line with 2 pair which i doubt or sets which also would be strange ? how often is this line AK and can i lay down the turn ? I don't think hes ever just making a play on the turn or tilting he seems very solid so i expect him to play straight forward.

Thanks for all your thoughts.

Hero (Button) (€6.07)
SB (€2.67)
BB (€2.71)
UTG (€5)
MP (€1)

Preflop: Hero ist Button mit 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif
UTG raises €0.16, 1 fold, Hero calls €0.16, 1 fold, BB calls €0.12

Flop: (€0.50) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (3 Spieler)
BB checks, UTG bets €0.42, Hero calls €0.42, 1 fold

Turn: (€1.34) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 Spieler)
UTG checks, Hero bets €1.16, UTG raises €2.48,

Playing K9s from the button when it's 5-handed is probably a good idea. This assumes that your opponents have adjusted their ranges to account for the rapid blinds. UTG is still the HJ in this game (HJ = Hijack = 2 off the button). I mean, his UTG range should be wider than when the table's full. He's closer to the button, and the blinds come around faster. Both dictate a wider range.

Are your stats on Villain all from 5-handed play? At least 6-handed?

How positionally aware is he? Does he play noticeably tighter from EP, and noticeably looser from CO/BTN when the table's full?
With over 800 hands, can you filter for his VPIP by position? If so, can you post it?

These questions are important because the 20% VPIP is (usually) the average of all positions. If he's positionally aware, we'll assign a tighter starting range for him PRE.


OTF: OK, he C-bet. What kind of hands is he C-betting on this board when it's 3-handed?
QJT hits all kinds of stuff that wants to call and not raise. It also hits all the PP's an UTG range would hold.

You have near the top of your range... so why not raise instead of call?

OTT: How often does Villain hold a set here? It's not obvious that he always has a straight, to me.

His vpip by position is ep 22 / mp 13 / co 18 / btn 24 / sb 20 / bb 22 , most of it should be 5 or 6 players as i don't usually sit if the tables break up.

I don't really know how to use the filters so i'm unsure how to filter by position and number of players at the table. Id appreciate if you could tell me how to do that on Hem 2 though.


I could of raised i'm not sure why i didn't at the time but bb having to act probably had something to do with it i would assume i was allowing him to call or raise on the flop maybe a bad idea on such a wet board to allow him to call ?


Thanks for the help.

I think we have to shove. I'm not thrilled, but he certainly has sets and overpairs in his range too, which he calls, and possibly some flush draws, or pair + sd combos and the like. Factor in that he might think we're taking advantage of our image, and I can't fold 2nd nuts. Calling is a problem here too because there's a lot of rivers we don't like. We could end up checking down on bad rivers vs hands we beat. I think value dictates that we just have to move all in, and if he has AK then that's unfortunate, reload and keep trooping.

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Originally Posted by AceVentura

His vpip by position is ep 22 / mp 13 / co 18 / btn 24 / sb 20 / bb 22 , most of it should be 5 or 6 players as i don't usually sit if the tables break up.

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Oh wow. So he isn't really positionally aware. He is playing the same range from all positions, but not to all opening bets.

24 from BTN, and 22 from EP? That's a major leak. BTN range should be ~2 times wider than CO. Ranges should get tighter again for each seat off the button. This is not the same for the blinds. Their dead money in the pot gives them better calling odds, blah blah.

You described this player as "solid." He's not solid, he's "rigid." He's button mashing PRE.

Back on topic:
We can be fairly sure about the 22% range that he's showing for BTN, SB, BB, UTG.
This means he's probably playing all his PP's all the time. I suspect this player finds it hard to fold any double broadway hand. These two bits of info get us up to 18% of all hands already. Add in all the suited Ax, and we're at that magical 20%. The rest of his range is going to come down to his personal feelings on playing suited Kx or playing suited connectors.

Here's one way it could work out:
{ 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,ATo+,KTo+ ,QTo+,JTo }

Now that you have an estimate for his range (from all positions) do you still feel like he's making "disciplined" lay-downs?

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Originally Posted by AceVentura

I don't really know how to use the filters so i'm unsure how to filter by position and number of players at the table. Id appreciate if you could tell me how to do that on Hem 2 though.

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I'm sure someone on FTR knows how to do that, but I don't.

No worries, though. We've got our info.

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Originally Posted by AceVentura

I could of raised i'm not sure why i didn't at the time but bb having to act probably had something to do with it i would assume i was allowing him to call or raise on the flop maybe a bad idea on such a wet board to allow him to call ?

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I was just asking why you did what you did. I did not mean to imply that what you did was incorrect.

If you're not sure now, though.... that's something I would work on. It's fine to act off of intuition when you're under a time crunch. After the fact, if I'm still unsure of what motivated me to a certain choice, then I take that as a red flag to study that choice. This sets me up to make a more informed decision next time I face that choice.

If you called PRE because you wanted action from a fishy blind, then I don't hate the call. I think in the greater context of your range OTF, you should be favoring your ability to win a big stack off the pre-flop raiser.

For the purposes of this discussion, I'm going to assume that your call OTF was fine. I suspect that a raise is most profitable for the spot and your range, but simply ignoring the 2nd Villain simplifies the analysis.

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Originally Posted by AceVentura

Thanks for the help.

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:thumbsup:

So we assume something like this for Villain's range PRE:
{ 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,ATo+,KTo+ ,QTo+,JTo }
If there's a surprise at showdown, then learn from that surprise by taking a note.

He has a flop C-bet of 71%.
This does not mean that he will C-bet 71% of his range on all flops. It kinda indicates that's a good ballpark to look at, though.

What hands in his range do you think he C-bets the flop with?

It may seem tedious, but these are the kinds of questions we need to answer to figure out Villain's range to x/r OTT.
What's your best guess for his range to x/r OTT?

You asked if you should shove to his x/r. We need to speculate his range to make the x/r and also his range to call your shove. Once we have those, it's simply a bit of math to answer your question of whether or not to shove. (I'll do the math, no worries.)

I would raise the flop. As played, fist pump all-in and be happy about it.

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Originally Posted by givememyleg

I would raise the flop. As played, fist pump all-in and be happy about it.

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Why's that?

O'k so i'm going to assign him quite a tight range of AdAh,AdAs,AhAs,KdKh,KdKs,KhKs,QQ-TT,AKs,QJs,AKo i'm not putting all 2 pair in his range and i'm only assigning 3 combos each of AA and KK as i don't think he always plays those hands this way which gives me 46% equity

My break even point on a shove is 32% equity ? so vs that range i should shove. Even vs AK TT JJ QQ i have 33% equity so really unless i can put him on strictly on AK i have to shove . Its been a while since i tried working on the maths and not the strongest part of my game right now.


What did you mean by mashing buttons and not being solid but rigid ? one of my biggest problems is recognizing player types unless its plainly obvious they are nitty or Aggro , i have quite alot of trouble deciphering info from stats as i'm pretty new to using a hud so i only understand some of the basics of the stats.

Im also trying to work on some default ranges would you say 15% utg is ok and add 5% for every position so 20% mp 25% co and 30% btn etc... is ok ? ive gone back to playing all pp's for a raise in utg and mp although i used to fold 22-55 from those positions and what are your thoughts on calling small pp's from the blinds vs lp opens co and btn as a general rule ?

sorry for the daft questions

Thanks for the help.

Raise flop ffs

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Why's that?

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Without getting too technical, I wouldn't fully respect villain at this level. You see funky stuff come up in hands all of the time at these stakes, even from the player's who seem solid compared to the rest of the table. Folding the second nuts would be a huge mistake. I wouldn't be surprised if his range was TT+,AQs+,KTs+,JTs,98s,AQo+,KTo+,JTo,98o and maybe even some flush draw combos. If he has AK well then nh and move on. There are many spots more important to work on improving rather than coolers.

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Originally Posted by AceVentura

O'k so i'm going to assign him quite a tight range of AdAh,AdAs,AhAs,KdKh,KdKs,KhKs,QQ-TT,AKs,QJs,AKo i'm not putting all 2 pair in his range and i'm only assigning 3 combos each of AA and KK as i don't think he always plays those hands this way which gives me 46% equity

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It's important to think of Villain's range as a story that starts PRE.

I fully expect Villain to be playing QJ and JT from this spot, and he's probably not thinking of 2-pair as a "trouble hand" OTF.
I also expect to see Villain holding 98s some portion of the time.

Will he x/r his 2-pair and baby straight hands OTT? Probably.
Since you don't need Villain to have anything besides the nuts very often here, and you can see all kinds of stuff that he'd be tempted to do this play with, then the call is almost definitely profitable.

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Originally Posted by AceVentura

My break even point on a shove is 32% equity ? so vs that range i should shove. Even vs AK TT JJ QQ i have 33% equity so really unless i can put him on strictly on AK i have to shove . Its been a while since i tried working on the maths and not the strongest part of my game right now.

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I don't know where you're getting this break even point.

Your equity on a shove has 3 parts, based on Villain's range. Villain's range has 3 parts:
the part that folds to your shove, the part that calls and wins, the part that calls and loses

The EV of a shove is the sum of the partial EV's corresponding to the 3 portions of Villain's range.
We can't calculate the EV of your shove until we speculate as to Villain's range and how he will react to your bet.

You have guessed a range for Villain to x/r OTT.
What's your guess for how that range responds to a shove?
Which hands fold? Which hands call?
Among the hands that call, which do you beat?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AceVentura

What did you mean by mashing buttons and not being solid but rigid ? one of my biggest problems is recognizing player types unless its plainly obvious they are nitty or Aggro , i have quite alot of trouble deciphering info from stats as i'm pretty new to using a hud so i only understand some of the basics of the stats.

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I mean that he thinks 22-77 is just as strong UTG as it is on the BTN. This assumption is demonstrably false.
Yes, every hand has the same chance to catch the board no matter the position, but that's not the whole story of the hand. There are multiple betting streets and bluffs and other fun stuff going on.

The ability to make money off of these weak PP's comes largely from being last to act. Your position matters a great deal when it comes to extracting the value from a hand.

I meant that he's rigid in the sense that he is not positionally aware when choosing pre-flop hands. He's going to be getting involved way too often when he's OOP and he's not even aware that it's a leak.

He's button mashing because he's not bothering to notice things like position. This is highly indicative that he's not noticing or considering anyone's range but his own... if he even thinks of his play in terms of ranges.
It's probable that he values all hands the same regardless of what's on the board. I mean... he sees that he has a straight, and doesn't really consider what his opponent might have that is not folding. I bet he'd do the same with a set, even on a flop like this with 3 connected cards.

***
If you see his play as solid, then that's probably because he's learned how to eke out some tiny advantages against the player pool. It doesn't mean that he's capable of adjusting to the dynamic factors at play.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AceVentura

Im also trying to work on some default ranges would you say 15% utg is ok and add 5% for every position so 20% mp 25% co and 30% btn etc... is ok ? ive gone back to playing all pp's for a raise in utg and mp although i used to fold 22-55 from those positions and what are your thoughts on calling small pp's from the blinds vs lp opens co and btn as a general rule ?

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I focus on FR, so I haven't played 6-max in years. I fully expect these ranges to be a percent or two lower than you might find at 6-max. The blinds come more rapidly, and this forces you to take more chances with weaker hands.
(Note that if there were no blinds or antes, then you should never play any hand but AA. There is no penalty to folding any less than perfect hand, and no dead money to win by raising, either. If someone opens, then what hand has at least 50% equity against AA? only AA.)

The following are ranges to open if it's folded or limped to you. I hope it's obvious that you should not be willing to call with the entire range of hands you are willing to open. People acting before you have declared a strong range with their open. Adjust your own range to call accordingly.

My suggestion is to start at the BTN w/ a range of ~40% - 45%. I know some people play over 50%, but I don't suggest it for now. Start at 40% and learn the strengths and dangers of that range.
{ 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q8s+,J7s+,T7s+,96s+,85s+,74s+,64s+,5 3s+,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,J9o+,T8o+,98o,87o }
(Adjust as necessary for your comfort. Almost all of the hands in this range beyond the CO range are 0EV or slightly -EV hands overall. How you balance those hands can come down to comfort.
E.g. If you think K9o is easier to play than {74s, 85s, 96s}, then trade them out. 12 combos for 12 combos doesn't change your %-age.

For the CO. Aim for ~25%.
{ 22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,A To+,KTo+,QTo+,J9o+,T9o,98o }

Half again for HJ. Aim for ~10%.
{ 77+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KQo }

For UTG, I'd shoot for ~7%.
{ 88+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AQo+ }

Defending the blinds is a trickier business. In general, if it's folded to me in the SB I try to steal the BB w/ a range similar to CO.

BB is a topic for it's own thread. It's rare that it's limped to you on the BB, and I don't really have a plan for what range I would raise with in that spot. Probably something like HJ. IDK if that's terrible or not.

I definitely do not recommend playing small PP's from early position. You simply aren't going to realize the long-term value from them when you consider how weak they are when they miss a set, and how they sometimes get beat by other sets, and then consider that Villain has to have a strong enough hand to pay you off. They're more trouble than benefit to your range.

I usually fold small PP's from the blinds when I'm facing a raise. I don't even like to use them for 3-bet bluffs, since I prefer to do that with A2s-A5s and only if I have a strong read that I need a 3-bet bluffing range.

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Originally Posted by AceVentura

sorry for the daft questions

Thanks for the help.

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While there are certainly stupid questions, I haven't seen any so far ITT.

It's my pleasure to help.

Not convinced about pre, as it's difficult to turn a profit with this hand when calling unless villain is really bad and blinds aren't squeezy. Same goes for ATs and some other suited broadways.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

I don't know where you're getting this break even point.

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I was just using equilab to assign a range for villain ott and a fold equity calculator to see if shoving was profitable vs that range , the range would include his entire range folding and calling ranges vs the shove ott.

Not sure if i'm calculating it correctly using those tools or how accurate i am. I came up with that 32% as being the break even point on a shove meaning id need at'least 32% equity vs his range to shove , anything over 32% equity and it would be +ev to shove vs the range i assigned him given the pot size and the remaining stacks etc...

Thanks.

This flop is soooo coordinated, you have to raise this flop. He's not going to be able to fold KK,KQ,QJ,QT,JT, QQQ,JJJ,TTT,9T, tons of fd's are combo draws. You really have to raise the flop. This is no board to be slow playing.

As played, all-in. You can't really call, because remaining stacks on river if you call, he'll be so short he can't credibly bluff.

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he'll be so short he can't credibly bluff.

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This does not mean dumb villains do not bluff when they have pathetic stacks relative to pot. I see all sorts of ridiculous shit at higher levels than this.

Not that it matters. I mean as played shoving is clearly our play, while the points about raising flop are very compelling indeed.