Bluff Catching

Hey folks

Played this hand last night. I have 35 hands on villain so nothing to put much weight on. He seems fishy. The board is super dry so i think Villain can find a call on the turn with some Ax overs, Jx, 5x and pocket pairs. How do you play the river? Bluff catching (as i did) commits us to calling any bet size (i think). I can't see us bet/folding. Betting may get a call from his Ax and pocket pairs that he may check behind us with.

Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com/

UTG ($12.41)
UTG+1 ($10)
MP1 ($10)
Hero (MP2) ($10)
MP3 ($9.11)
CO ($15.26)
Button ($12.90)
SB ($7.80)
BB ($3.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, MP3 calls $0.30, CO calls $0.30, 3 folds

Flop: ($1.05) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero bets $0.80, MP3 calls $0.80, 1 fold

Turn: ($2.65) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $1.68, MP3 calls $1.68

River: ($6.01) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $6.33 (All-In), Hero calls $6.33

Total pot: $18.67 | Rake: $0.84

I don't like the way you have played this hand.

I think your flop bet is far too big - that board is pretty dry and it's a classic way ahead/way behind spot. You want to try and keep as much of his Ax and smaller pocket pairs in as you can and therefore I'm going to bet something a little more enticing - $0.55c looks about right.

The turn doesn't really change much but once he calls again I'm shutting down. I don't think villain ever shows up w/ worse than Jx here, like you can take QQ out of his range because I would expect most villain's to 3bet this pre - speaking of this, what made you think villain was fishy? What were his stats after 35 hands?

What do you think villain is bluffing with? This board is super dry so he has no busted draws and I doubt he is just spazzing w/ like AT or something like that. Really interested to see what you think his bluffing range contains here.

As played, I can't c/f to that river jam quick enough.

I dunno, I think the flop sizing is good as villain's range pre is most likely middle pocket pairs and big aces, barely any of which are folding. Villain shouldn't have too much Jx given relative positions either, but stats from those 35 hands could still be useful.

River is an exploitable chk/fold as you're going to see boats and quads here always. Nobody is ever betting anything that you beat in this spot at 10nl.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

I dunno, I think the flop sizing is good as villain's range pre is most likely middle pocket pairs and big aces, barely any of which are folding. Villain shouldn't have too much Jx given relative positions either, but stats from those 35 hands could still be useful.

River is an exploitable chk/fold as you're going to see boats and quads here always. Nobody is ever betting anything that you beat in this spot at 10nl.

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I realise we're speaking generally because of lack of stats but what big Ax do you expect to see? Aside from AJ which obviously beats us, the biggest ace villain can have here is AT no? I think AQ+ 3bets pre so we can probably take all of the AK's and 50% of the AQ's out of villain's range here I think.

I agree that a lot of middling pairs are going to call on this flop though so maybe we can go a little bigger if we feel villain's range is weighted that way. However, I think villain will also have a lot of Axs which is going to snap fold this flop and is a large part of the reason why I want to bet smaller to maximize the chance of keeping those hands in.

I think villain can have a few Jx - mostly JT+ and maybe a little wider if villain is on the loose side.

No reason to pound this so hard. You're not going to get much value bombing for three streets on a JJx board. Your sizing will narrow his range down to Jx quite a bit.

I'd just bet half pot or even a bit smaller on flop, and similar on turn.

I'd probably go something like 0.45, 0,90, 1.45. I don't think too many ppl will bluff raise you on the river, so you can probably b/f. Meanwhile he might even call with as bad as Ax on the river to a smallish bet.

Furthermore, I think b/f >>> c/c on this board.

Maybe if flop was two toned I could somewhat see it. But you check and let him take SD with all of his 66-TT, Ax hands (which might call a small bet), and he'll only bet Jx or a hand that feels it needs to turn into a bluff (which won't be many).

I think 3betting any big ace is a mistake given positions, as is calling any ace worse than AQ. You could certainly be right though - me projecting my own range and own thought process on to other players has often been a mistake of mine. I think if villain was shaping up to be looser then we can definitely start to think about sizing to accommodate his range - I'm sure we could model it if either of us could be bothered!

This seems overplayed. I'd likely b/f all streets at half pot, although I might consider c/f river because by now I don't see what worse he calls to a third bet, while I don't expect him to bet weaker hands either.

Actually I don't c/f this river, I b/f because there's 2pr on the board and villain will call anything that isn't playing the board, while he can only shove Jx or 55

Thanks all.

Yeah I'm not happy about playing for stacks on this board and getting out of the way if he gives any indication that he wants to do so.

Your bet on the flop seems big to me. I don't like the idea of making big pots with that type of hand in these situations, so i would bet half pot on the flop and check-call turn and evaluate river if the bet is big.