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Hudless, but read on villain is that he's an average reg for the stakes i.e. little bit fishy. Villain probably views us the same. 100bb effective.
Hero has AQss on btn, villain opens MP for 3bb. Hero flats, pot is 7.5bb.
Flop is A93 two spades. Villain bets 5bb, hero calls. Pot is 17.5bb.
Turn is 8x. Villain bets 12bb, hero calls. Pot is 41.5bb.
River is 7x. Villain checks, hero bets 21bb, villain jams for 80bb.
Ugh I really want to call this.
I think I'd be 3betting this pre. If you're flatting this, what are you 3betting? I really don't want the table to see that I'm flatting AQs on the button to a MP open.
As played, I really want to call, but I feel like this is gonna be A7 more often than spades. Depends really if he has any reason to think we're folding an ace here. If I thought that was in his mind, I could make the call.
I think either a flat or a 3-bet is fine preflop.
Flop - I almost always raise there since we can do so with no fear. Your pot control/don't fold out the bluffs call is totally fine too though.
Turn is standard.
River is where I question why you bet. Only value I can see you get is from AJ and AT. But we need to worry about 2 pair combos, sets, and the TJ that got there. I check back there.
As played, this is a fold unless you know he has the capability of making such a strong bluff.
I think 3betting pre is a small mistake against a reg, but I guess it's possible he flats worse oop with the right dynamic. I'll 3bet QQ+ AK for value in these positions as standard, plus a bunch of suited aces and other hands I can't quite profitably call.
Flop's an interesting one. Do we think it's a raise with the right reg on reg dynamic?
On the river, would you assume most villain's aren't so tricky in this spot and just go bet/bet/bet for value? I mean we look capped at exactly what we are in this spot, so it seems a good spot to bluff. But then we block a bunch of his busted draws.
Flop probably depends more on your playing style than anything else. I raise that flop because people tend to think I am full of shit, so when I finally get a hand where I am likely ahead and at worst will hit my draw at least 1 in 3 times than I just don't have any problem putting my foot on the gas.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bean Counter
River - I would think that most villains that bet, bet, check on that board are either going to check/fold or check/raise. Like I said before the check/call is going to come maybe from AJ/AT or from hands that have us beat like AK or weird 2 pair that got there. So it just seems like a bad place to bet for value especially when you took a pot control line by calling down flop and turn anyways.
I feel like when I show down AQs as a pre flop flat call on the button, I'm basically telling anyone who's paying attention that my 3bet raise is exactly as you described... QQ+ AK with some bluffs. This isn't the kind of range I want to have post flop in 3bet pots, my AK is going to find life very tough going against competent regs, and we're gonna get hurt by setminers. When I have a missed AK in a 3b pot on the button, I'd like to be able to bet Qxx flops with some credit, but I feel like this gets a lot tougher if we're flatting this and they know it.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bean Counter
I get that flatting pre is certainly going to be +ev, but I can only be calling this as part of a fluid strategy to keep villains guessing. As standard, this is a 3bet for me against MP unless he's a nit or consistently outplaying me.
I agree with everything chard has said about post flop. And calling pre is fine so long as you're 3betting this with at least some frequency and flatting to mix it up, at least in my opinion.
I think Pre / Flop and Turn are fine, and I would probably play it the same. I can go either way on the flop raise vs call. If I had been active and though villain wouldn't believe/would play back at me then I might raise, but otherwise I would feel pretty good about having this in my call down for a triple range.
River I think is a bit thin, but at these stakes I also don't expect to get bluff c/r here ever so don't mind it. Once we get raised I think we HAVE to fold. People just aren't bluffing here often enough to call.
Thanks guys. I'm actually villain in this hand and interested to see whether most people fold vs the river check jam. It got me thinking that if this guy's call is standard then I'll take this line more often for value against a capped range, rather than just bet bet bet.
I'd expect most to overfold though, with only JTss continuing and all AQ/AJ folding, so do we think being weighted more towards bluffs is okay in this spot? Maybe we can't expect somebody that bets Ax in this spot on the river to fold?
Way to have me waste my time focusing on the lack of 3bet pre flop!Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bean Counter
I don't like this spot to go for a c/r with strong value. WAY too many hands will check back imo. I mean.. I said even betting AQ was thin, so what hands will really be betting that haven't made some noise by now?
You have to go for value c/r in spots where ppl are 1) Very likely to bet 2) Have strong enough hands to call a c/r.
Like if we had 999 in this spot, and the river was an A for example. 1) Vill rivers trip aces so very likely to bet 2) Lots of ppl can't fold trips so likely to call a c/r.