River Spot with Missed Draws

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (5 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

Hero (Button) ($2.72)
SB ($1.02)
BB ($2.79)
UTG ($2.18)
MP ($2.52)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
UTG raises to $0.04, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.17, SB calls $0.16, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.13

Flop: ($0.53) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $0.06, Hero raises to $0.29, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.23

Turn: ($1.11) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.59, UTG calls $0.59

River: ($2.29) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ???

I had only a dozen hands on villain at the time, but he'd played in all but one. Appeared that he liked to see flops.

I think I'm happy with my 3bet pre here. And I think c-betting this flop with the 2 draws is standard isn't it? I'm not real confident in my sizing yet. Sizing is something I probably need to work on and will get to.

Against most randoms, ismy turn barrel have ok? Looking at this now I think I probably should have slowed down against this guy. I maybe should have taken the free river card?

His check on the river is where I struggle. Do I bet half pot here to try and take it down? I'm not winning often if I just let it go to showdown.

Given villain's pre-flop play, I think he has a K, T, or small pair here often, but he was playing in almost every pot so he has garbage or a lower missed draw often too. Would he not have bet out at river with a set most times?

You didn't c-bet the flop you raised a bet. Your raise on the flop is going to be far too small.

The turn you probably don't have all that much fold equity against a villain like this so taking the free card and stacking him a lot when we hit is where we are getting a lot of our value from. Betting is probably a bit meh.

River once again you have very little fold equity against a villain like this at 2nl who will be calling stupidly wide (which is where we make most of our money) the things we do fold out we probably beat anyway. More specifically your hand is a pretty bad one to turn into a bluff in this spot due to you blocking a lot of combinations of hands which villain could be drawing with such as strong flush draws & straight draws.

Against stronger players, I'd be much more likely to take a raise/bet/bet line, but we're not gonna fare well bluffing into a fish. Agree with savy, raise flop more, peel turn, give up river.

important to make a distinction here on your reads. If villain has been coming in for a raise all of those times, he's either running hot over a small sample or he's aggro. If he's the limp calling type, that will change what we play and how we play it.

I think pre is likely ok/marginal against a suspected fish, but I actually don't mind keeping pots small in position pre when heads up agaunst this guy. There's a trade off between hammering home an equity advantage pre and keeping the SPR low, with the latter meaning skill and position become a bigger factor post. Against a reg's tighter UTG opening range, I think 3 betting would be a small mistake.

When villains take this line, it's more often for what they perceive to be for value, but it can be to find out where they're at, some type of draw or a total goofball. You're not getting folds often, but we have a ton of equity on this flop and will be okay stacking off now, so raising is ok. Calling is also ok I think when we're not getting folds on the flop but can still comfortably get stacks in if we hit turn or river.

Turn and river are both checks against somebody that isn't folding. We can take a free card on the turn and still get stacks in on a ton of river cards, plus our hand will be good on the river sometimes.

As a guide for flop raise sizing, I'd mentally call his bet, then raise to at least 70% of what the pot now is after "calling", which is a bet of 42c in this case. More if you think he's calling light, flop is value, we surely have >50%. Here I reckon I make it 50c.

Put your opp on a range on every street and try to think how his range will brake vs your different actions.
In this case:
- You say your opp played 11 out of 12 hands, so he has vpip of 90%, but is his pfr 10 or 90, or between?
- he always opens for 2bb or he mixed that w/ 3bb? Zid he ever limped?
These will help You five him a more accurate preflop range.
Is it more profitabile to call or 3b vs his range?
When You 3b, what are his folding/ calling/ 4b ranges?
Flop: is one of the best flop for us and are for sure betting/ raising/ get AI .
At no stake, vs one bet no one is folding Kx/ or any of the draws.Beeing 2nl, he might even peel one w/ Tx and underpairs.
Turn is a brick for us, but we decided he's range is draws/ Kx/ Tx/ small pairs and of course 2pairs plus. If we bet again and folds Tx/ small pairs calls draws/Kx raises 2pair+ IT is a +EV bet so we should def bet just like you'd play your AA/AK/KK, just that vs a turn c/r You will fold AA/AK while here i am inclined to call w/ AQhh. Although i think it's closd call vs a turn c/r. River is def a check back

Flop i'd raise to 0.45c and turn i'd bet 0.75c

What makes you think he's folding a ten on the turn raz? Hero says he's played all but one hand over a dozen. He's minraising UTG and donking flop into a 3bet. He's not very good, and I'm not expecting him to fold a ten. I really don't expect him to put us on a range, he's just clicking buttons based on what he has. I feel like we're getting more value on the river when we get there than what we're getting on the turn when he folds.

I would expect him to fold worse than a ten here, but I don't want to rely on a fish folding second pair.

If you want to know the actual "cool trick" that will make you win at poker, it's this.

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Originally Posted by Razvan729

Put your opp on a range on every street and try to think how his range will brake vs your different actions.

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This every time.

It's not easy at first, but, like so many things, it gets easier with practice.

I recommend doing this to at least one hand every time you study. Embrace the sense of adventurous guesswork that goes into it. You'll never be "perfectly right" about a Villain's range, but that's OK. They will never be right about yours, either. In the end, you don't have to be perfect at reading your opponents and adjusting to them, you only have to be better at it than they are.

So take the plunge into putting your Villains on ranges when you study, and do the EV calcs to see what your line is worth against those ranges.

Then take it to the advanced level where you amplify the guesswork and start asking questions like, "If I bet 2x or 3x as much here, do I expect him to call with the same range? Will he adjust his range to such ridiculous overbets in a way that I actually increase my EV by doing something that is textbook stupid?" Ask the questions, "What if I min-bet, here? Do I expect him to fold as much as he would to a 2/3 PSB? Can I exploit that in the short term?"

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

What makes you think he's folding a ten on the turn raz? Hero says he's played all but one hand over a dozen. He's minraising UTG and donking flop into a 3bet. He's not very good, and I'm not expecting him to fold a ten. I really don't expect him to put us on a range, he's just clicking buttons based on what he has. I feel like we're getting more value on the river when we get there than what we're getting on the turn when he folds.

I would expect him to fold worse than a ten here, but I don't want to rely on a fish folding second pair.

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Even If he doesnt fold a Tx to turn bet, even If he folds nothing to turn bet, our bet IT is still +EV vs his turn c/c range . do the math vs our turn 0.75c bet w/ his range beeing Kx/Tx and all draws and see it's EV

If a opp is loose pre, doent mean he is c/c 2 barrel w/ 2nd pair in a spot like this.you need reads for that, even If this is just 2nl. Even at 2nl You will see a lot of + 50 vpip that will not stack off unlless holding 2pair+. Donț assume he is bad pre w/ o some post flop info off that, its bad for your BR. Assume he is average untul provenit otherwise, and average just doesnt cnot 2 barrel in 3b spot w/ that board. He is never folding TcXc , i agree. Like i said, even If he isnt folding Tx, our turn bet IT is +EV

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If a opp is loose pre, doent mean he is c/c 2 barrel w/ 2nd pair in a spot like this.you need reads for that, even If this is just 2nl.

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I kind of feel the opposite... that we need reads to know he isn't calling a ten for us to go ahead and bluff. When I see someone playing so many hands, then taking this line from UTG vs our 3b, my default position is that we should not bluff him.

If we don't need him to fold a ten on the turn, well that changes it. I figured we were the wrong side of close, which is why I happily peel the turn. If we're +ev without fold equity, well ok then we can bet for value.

Vs AK/TT/44/ATs/JTs/KQs we have 34% equity and w/ a .75c turn bet that what we need to Be slight +EV. But If he has those, he also has AQs/AJs/QJs at least so our +EV increases. And this is a conservative range. Could Be wider which is better for us. Worst case and our all assumptions are wrong, we face AK/TT/44 , vs this we have 25% equity, so long run we lose , but i cant see him beeing that tight. Even i am not that tight and i'm probably biggest nitt ever :))

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Originally Posted by ImSavy

You didn't c-bet the flop you raised a bet. Your raise on the flop is going to be far too small.

The turn you probably don't have all that much fold equity against a villain like this so taking the free card and stacking him a lot when we hit is where we are getting a lot of our value from. Betting is probably a bit meh.

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You're right, I should look at my own hands better! Not a C-bet.. was a raised bet. And I agree with your point now about my flop raise being too small.

It was his check on flop and check on river that perhaps gave me an inflated sense of fold equity on the turn. I'll be careful for that in the future. Getting chips in on a made river probably wouldn't have been that difficult. I should have taken the free card.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

There's a trade off between hammering home an equity advantage pre and keeping the SPR low, with the latter meaning skill and position become a bigger factor post. Against a reg's tighter UTG opening range, I think 3 betting would be a small mistake.

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This is interesting to me, and something I had not considered. I just figured since he'd been in most pots that I had his range crushed, so building a pot seemed like the think to do. But yeah.. I should have factored the UTG raise into it a little better. He was seeing flops, so him calling my 3bet doesn't seem nearly as unusual here as the UTG open raise does.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

As a guide for flop raise sizing, I'd mentally call his bet, then raise to at least 70% of what the pot now is after "calling", which is a bet of 42c in this case. More if you think he's calling light, flop is value, we surely have >50%. Here I reckon I make it 50c.

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This helps a lot, thanks. I like the "mentally calling his bet" into the pot size before figuring my percentage.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Razvan729

Put your opp on a range on every street and try to think how his range will brake vs your different actions.
In this case:

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Thanks Raz and MMM. I am actually currently doing this very actively during hand review, I'm not so hot yet at doing it during play though. I'm a work in progress!

Ugh. From personal experience, it takes a loooong time for it to work its way into your play. That's why it's important to start doing it as soon as you are motivated to understand EV, equities and betting lines.

Some things will get easy pretty fast, like converting a PFR to an opening range.

The good thing is that you'll be learning a boat load of useful things tangentially through your study.

PLUS, even the little things you don't notice you've learned will start pumping bb/100's into your winrate.

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Post your analysis in this thread when you've done it!

MadMojoMonkey. I agree with what you are saying. I've seeing my father in same boat since my high school.