Line Check and opponent ranges

I dont know if there is a specific rule on how many threads I can make in a given time-span if I'm breaking any type of rules just let me know and I will abide by the rules.

$0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter

Stacks:
UTG Fedot51 ($2.06) 103bb
UTG+1 RobinHood.ru ($0.99) 50bb
MP1 fomik33 ($4.95) 248bb
MP2 DevilRaise1 ($1.17) 59bb
MP3 Cuz Miller ($4.09) 205bb
CO Boomz25 ($1.95) 98bb
BTN Kosta spinoza ($2) 100bb
SB Senatorvv ($2.56) 128bb
BB Hero ($1.50) 75bb

Pre-Flop: (0.03, 9 players) Hero is BB :9h: :5h:
Fedot51 raises to $0.06, 3 folds, Cuz Miller calls $0.06, 1 fold, Kosta spinoza calls $0.06, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.04
Flop: :4s: :3h: :7h: ($0.25, 4 players)

Hero checks, Fedot51 checks, Cuz Miller bets $0.08, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.08, Fedot51 goes all-in $2, Cuz Miller folds, Hero folds

Final Pot: $2.41

Fedot51 wins $2.39 (net +$0.33)

Cuz Miller lost $0.14
Kosta spinoza lost $0.06
Hero lost $0.14

At first I thought this was an easy fold but now that I look at it i am wondering if I made correct play. UTG Open-Raises preflop then check-raises CO's 1/3 pot size bet with an ALL-IN what would he do this with? because the board was wet was a micro player and thought someone else would bet for him with many players and he wanted to get a bit more money in the pot by check raising instead of leading out .

I put him on a range of AA-TT,AJs+,77,44,33, AKo,


MY HAND- FLUSHDRAW +GUTSHOT = 12 outs 12x4=48%

LOSING TO- AJs+(hearts)=#3 combos
77,44,33 have outs to hit full house if I hit flush on turn

basically beating the rest if a heart comes, as long as its not runner runner hearts and they contain pocket pair with a higher heart.

am I right here or should there be card removal for that even though there is a wide combination of possible cards to come with 2 streets left? do we discount the A,K,Q,J of hearts for his pocket pairs? should there be card removal for possible full houses aswell and how would i calculate that without using an equity calculator?

anyways I used the calculator for my equity against the range I put him on and it is 50.73% for him while im getting 49.27%

Equity Final Call Formula :

Price of calling/ (pot size+price of calling)=44% Required Equity


pot was $0.25 beginning of flop,MP bets $0.08, I called $0.08, UTG all in 2$

price of calling= $2-$0.08=$1.92

pot size+price of calling=$4.33

$1.92/$4.33=0.443

Our Equity was 49.27% should we have called or did i am i making calculation mistakes any help plz

There's no limit on how many threads you can start, feel free to post as many as you like.

You can fold this pre flop, but like the 62s hand, if you're playing ok post flop then you can take a flop, considering pot odds and implied odds.

It's good to see you putting people on ranges and considering the number of outs you have to improve, this is promising. The guy who raised has certainly taken a strange line here, check-raising all in with the pot so small is fishy. Make a note.

His range is probably pretty wide. He's going to have flush draws, overpairs, sets, top pair, 56s, and maybe AK. We know he doesn't have 56hh because we have the 5h, so there's only 3 combos of 56s he can have.

He can certainly have an overpair or overcards with a heart, but we shouldn't be afraid of the board running out hearts. The probability of this is around 4%, and even then he doesn't always have a heart, son it's not something I'd be concerned about. If it happens, it's just bad luck.

I would be raising the flop bet, this is a really good flop for our hand. If we're not raising this, then we're not very balanced. When we do raise, it's going to be exclusively made hands, and we'll struggle to get value against people who are paying attention. Granted, not many people are paying attention at these stakes, but it doesn't hurt to try to balance our range. We don't want to be playing these limits forever, and when we step up we don't want to be out of our depth with regards balance. It's good to think about our range as well as other peoples' ranges.

As played, this is a disgusting spot. Folding is probably correct, but it's close. Because it's such a huge overbet and it's an all in bet, we need direct drawing odds and they are not generous. I don't think we have the required odds, because villain will have better flush draws in his range. We do have equity against his better flush draws because we draw to pairs and the straight, but his flush draws are also drawing to better pairs.

Mojo is better at the mathematical side of things than I am, so I'll let him chip in. He might disagree with me that this is a flop fold.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

There's no limit on how many threads you can start, feel free to post as many as you like.

You can fold this pre flop, but like the 62s hand, if you're playing ok post flop then you can take a flop, considering pot odds and implied odds.

It's good to see you putting people on ranges and considering the number of outs you have to improve, this is promising. The guy who raised has certainly taken a strange line here, check-raising all in with the pot so small is fishy. Make a note.

His range is probably pretty wide. He's going to have flush draws, overpairs, sets, top pair, 56s, and maybe AK. We know he doesn't have 56hh because we have the 5h, so there's only 3 combos of 56s he can have.

He can certainly have an overpair or overcards with a heart, but we shouldn't be afraid of the board running out hearts. The probability of this is around 4%, and even then he doesn't always have a heart, son it's not something I'd be concerned about. If it happens, it's just bad luck.

I would be raising the flop bet, this is a really good flop for our hand. If we're not raising this, then we're not very balanced. When we do raise, it's going to be exclusively made hands, and we'll struggle to get value against people who are paying attention. Granted, not many people are paying attention at these stakes, but it doesn't hurt to try to balance our range. We don't want to be playing these limits forever, and when we step up we don't want to be out of our depth with regards balance. It's good to think about our range as well as other peoples' ranges.

As played, this is a disgusting spot. Folding is probably correct, but it's close. Because it's such a huge overbet and it's an all in bet, we need direct drawing odds and they are not generous. I don't think we have the required odds, because villain will have better flush draws in his range. We do have equity against his better flush draws because we draw to pairs and the straight, but his flush draws are also drawing to better pairs.

Mojo is better at the mathematical side of things than I am, so I'll let him chip in. He might disagree with me that this is a flop fold.

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Thank you for the wise knowledge and advice

I've got a semi-busy day of fun planned, so I don't really have the time to dig into the hand at this moment.

I just wanted to chime in early and express how awesome it is that this post is much, much better than the prior posts (which were fine, BTW).
Your analysis is like night and day.

***
The only thing that jumps out at me is one of the numbers in your final analysis.
Hero started the hand with $1.50, and cannot call $1.92 at the end. Hero only has ($1.50 - $0.06 - $0.08 = ) $1.36 to call.
At the point of Hero's big decision, it's heads up, so the math is straight-forward. Looks like OP's thinking was correct at first glance.

There's $0.41 dead money in the pot and Hero faces a bet of $1.36.
Total value of the pot if call = $3.13
0.41/3.13 ~= 43.5%

IF your 12 outs are clean, then I did a quick calc and came up with ~45% drawing equity.
(quickly verified by looking here: https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-and-outs)
I'm not endorsing that site, just the first google search result and it agreed with my number, so I accept it as a weak verification.

It's a thin call, IF the outs are clean. Some of them will probably be counterfeited against certain hands in Villain's range.

***
For me, this is another fold PRE. I'm fine with ong's reasons to play it, but I don't think it's the right time (2NL) to do so.

For my personal reasons to fold:
Defending the blinds is hard enough with a tight range. Playing OOP (Out-Of-Position) post-flop is hard. Period. At all levels of play, it's much easier to play well when you're playing last on each round.

When you're playing suited connectors, 1-gappers, etc., you're not trying to hit a pair-based hand. You're going to be in a difficult situation playing a mid or low pair OOP on later streets. What you really want is a straight or flush hand. The problem with 3-gappers is that they can never have the nut straight. So even when you hit your hand, you're still in a bit of a tough spot.
E.g. in this hand, you have 95. If the board gives you 876, then great you have a straight... but T9 is the nuts on that board.
It's not that you need the nuts to bet confidently. It's that I prefer to play hands that CAN make the nuts.

Also... there's plenty of much better hands to play before 95s. Again, if you're defending this wide, then you're probably defending too wide from the blinds. Especially for 2NL, 5NL, a bit less so at 10NL, but for me, 95s is not playable even there. I'd rather 3-bet A6s-A9s than flat suited 3-gappers, just remember you have a weak kicker on A-high boards.

EDIT:
There's $0.41 dead money in the pot and Hero faces a bet of $1.36.
Total value of the pot if call = $3.13
1.36/3.13 ~= 43.5%

Note: calc for outs OTF

You're using the rule of 2 and 4, which is OK for when you're at the tables. When studying a hand, I prefer to use the exact numbers.


Let your number of outs be N

% chance to draw at least one out = N/47 + N/46 - (N/47)(N/46)

N/47 is the chance to draw an out OTT, with any river.
N/46 is the chance to draw an out OTR, with any turn.
Both of those numbers count the times when the catch an out on both the turn and the river. We accidentally counted them twice, so we need to subtract one of them off. That's why we have - (N/47)(N/46) on the end.

Think of Venn diagram with 2 overlapping circles. We count circle A (which includes the overlap with circle B), and we count circle B (which also includes the overlap). We counted the overlap twice.