Yet another reason not to slowplay big pairs

Great site. Been lurking for a while, so I thought I'd post a hand to discuss. Please feel free to criticize. I can take it.

This was the second hand I was dealt sitting in on the table. I got dealt poket 4's and tried limping in. It was raised the minimum, and there were multiple callers, so I thought I'd throw in the extra bet to see the flop. If he raised just a few bucks more, I was out of there.

I'm questioning my bets. I didn't want to bet too much to scare him away, but I wanted to extract the most money out of him. What do you think:

Hand #XXXXXXX-16562 at Shiraz (No Limit Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 25/May/04 22:22:33

Player11 is at seat 0 with $12.50.
Player12 is at seat 1 with $19.30.
Hero is at seat 2 with $49.50.
Player10 is at seat 3 with $56.85.
Player13 is at seat 4 with $32.
Player14 is at seat 5 with $23.50.
Player15 is at seat 6 with $43.25.
Player6 is at seat 7 with $33.35.
Player16 is at seat 8 with $51.85.
Player17 is at seat 9 with $12.70.
The button is at seat 7.

Player16 posts the small blind of $.25.
Player17 posts the big blind of $.50.

Player11: -- --
Player12: -- --
Hero: :4s: :4c:
Player10: -- --
Player13: -- --
Player14: -- --
Player15: -- --
Player6: -- --
Player16: -- --
Player17: -- --

Pre-flop:

Player11 calls. Player12 calls. Hero calls.
Player10 raises to $1. Player13 calls. Player14
folds. Player15 calls. Player6 folds. Player16
folds. Player17 folds. Player11 calls. Player12
calls. Hero calls.

Flop (board: :4d: :ts: :6s:):

Player11 bets $.50. Player12 calls. Hero raises to
$3.50. Player10 calls. Player13 folds.
Player15 folds. Player11 folds. Player12 folds.


Turn (board: :4d: :ts: :6s: :tc:):

Hero bets $8. Player10 calls.

River (board: :4d: :ts: :6s: :tc: :2h:):

Hero bets $10. Player10 calls.



Showdown:

Hero shows :4s: :4c:.
Hero has :4s: :4c: :4d: :ts: :tc:: full house, fours full of tens.
Player10 mucks cards.
(Player10 has :kh: :ks:.)


Hand #XXXXXXX-16562 Summary:

$2 is raked from a pot of $50.75.
Hero wins $48.75 with full house, fours full of tens.

I'd say thats a good bet. You definitely don't want to slow play bottom set, especially with that flush draw. The turn protected you from a flush and any with a T will pay you nicely but remember that you have the bottom set and anyone with 66, T6, or T4 has you beat.

well played, he thought he was trapping you with his overpair :)

Don't worry about the pf call, this has been dicussed numerous times on this site and as long as you can in theory break someone 10 times the bet you can call your bet and a little more. I'd call up to $2.50, with a PP, more if the raisers stack was bigger (but not much more).

If the flop misses i'm out of there but around 12% of the time you can flop a set and break someone. Occasionally your set will lose but its only about 10% of the time.

These figures are estimates, but reasonably close.

1/8 is the amount of times you will roughly flop a set

pfb = preflopbet

pofb = postflopbet

win = amountwon

=((1/8)*win)-((7/8)*pfb)-((1/8*10%)*(pfb+pofb))

Or in this case =((1/8)*90%*$48.75)-((7/8)*$1)-((1/8*10%)*($1+$21.5)) = $4.23

Hope this makes sense, and i hope this is accurate, it pretty much means everytime you play that hand in this fasion you should avg $4.23 per hand.