Set vs Flush analysis

Am I playing a completely lucky bastard, or did I do something wrong? There was no way for me to suspect him to be betting on a DRAW.

PokerStars Game #561539289: Tournament #2136622, Hold'em No Limit - Level II
(15/30) - 2004/07/22 - 16:46:55 (ET)
Table '2136622 1' Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: gmw1234 (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: mortyblack (550 in chips)
Seat 3: hard14 (2430 in chips)
Seat 4: allLiving (1470 in chips)
Seat 5: luckyvic7777 (1340 in chips)
Seat 6: joltinjoe55 (1400 in chips)
Seat 7: UGHH (1220 in chips)
Seat 8: mkeric1 (1440 in chips)
Seat 9: millerboy292 (2150 in chips)
joltinjoe55: posts small blind 15
UGHH: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to allLiving [As Js]
mkeric1: folds
millerboy292: folds
gmw1234: calls 30
mortyblack: folds
hard14: folds
allLiving: raises 60 to 90
luckyvic7777: calls 90
joltinjoe55: folds
UGHH: calls 60
gmw1234: calls 60
*** FLOP *** [5h Jh Jd]
UGHH: checks
gmw1234: bets 30
allLiving: calls 30
luckyvic7777: calls 30
UGHH: calls 30
*** TURN *** [5h Jh Jd] [8s]
UGHH: checks
gmw1234: bets 90
allLiving: raises 90 to 180
luckyvic7777: folds
UGHH: folds
gmw1234: calls 90
*** RIVER *** [5h Jh Jd 8s] [7h]
gmw1234: bets 150
allLiving: raises 150 to 300
gmw1234: calls 150
*** SHOW DOWN ***
allLiving: shows [As Js] (three of a kind, Jacks)
gmw1234: shows [Th 4h] (a flush, Jack high)
gmw1234 collected 1455 from pot

Actually, whenever I see somebody bet the minimum on the flop, I think either "he's betting a draw" or "he's weak betting a monster".

His play on the turn though is another story. I agree that it doesn't quite seem like a bet you'd make with a draw, does it (not to mention that he called your raise)?

Maybe Mike Caro is right...you shouldn't put opponents on anything, you should put them on everything :roll:

Tough break.

i would have put him on the other jack, which you would have out kicked.

considering he had a low flush draw (you could have been on the same draw with a higher card), his preflop and turn calls were very bad calls. i wouldn't have limped in with his hand.

the only thing i would have done differently - with 2 hearts showing, i would have bet the flop harder. that's not to say he still wouldn't have called...

i see so many bozo's call preflop raises with suited anything, that if i hit a strong hand on the flop and there are 2 of a suit flopped, i still bet the flop hard.

Looks like he was semi-bluffing hoping to win without showdown, with two Jacks out he probably thought no one had the Jack until you re-raised him on the turn.

Yeah, it was a horrible call preflop by that guy. But the flop bet screams flush draw to me. I've seen people do that way too many times.

With a monster, you don't usually lead with a bet like that. Hell, he didn't even check to the preflop better, so a monster is out the window. He's betting small, hoping everyone will just call, so he gets a cheap card. On the turn he's semi-bluffing, and then he has pot odds to call the min-raise.

I think the worst decision that player made was the preflop call. His post flop play wasn't that bad in that hand (except for maybe betting a bit too much on the turn, since you probably would've given him a cheaper min-raise if he bet less).

One last thing, man. It doesn't even matter if he has the flush draw. You have two guys acting after you. By my math, after the other guys bet of 90 on the turn, there was a pot of 585 there, and you min-raised to 180. You're basically inviting a flush draw to call you, no matter which player had it.

I'd say this was more slowplaying when you shouldn't be than a bad beat from a bad player. If I took this risky approach, I'd have just called on the river, assuming that I'm very likely beat.