Playing with the pros

I just saw one of the most amazing hands I've ever seen. FoxSportsNet had the Poker Superstars.

Howard Lederer and Gus Hansen entered a hand.
Stacks:
Lederer - 390,000 (3rd overall)
Hansen - 450,000 (2nd overall)

Hansen is BB, Lederer is UTG

Lederer - A :spade: 3 :spade:
Hansen - 4 :diamond: 6 :diamond:

Preflop:
Lederer: raise to 18,000
Hansen: call

Flop: 3 :club: 3 :diamond: 5 :diamond:
Hansen: check
Lederer: bet 18,000
Hansen: raise to 78,000
Lederer: raise all in
Hansen: long wait... anticipation... fold.

This was a very tough call. Even with someone as loose as Lederer. Hansen had an outside straight flush draw. It was an amazing hand. I felt honored watching this play out.

I feel I am tighter than Hansen, yet I would have called this hand.

This is a great hand to look at and analyze. I'd love to hear everyone's input here.

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Originally Posted by Humphrind

This was a very tough call. Even with someone as loose as Lederer.

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Lederer really isn't that loose of the player.

Quote:

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I feel I am tighter than Hansen, yet I would have called this hand.

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I would hope you are tighter then Hansen, hes a poker tramp.


Also, If I were in Gus' situation, I call.

I think this is a good fold. Only 13 outs, which would be an insane call.

The trippy thing is that Gus makes insane calls and then draws out on people.

isnt it 15 outs? i think for already commiting a quarter of his stack he should call as he is a 50/50 or so to win the hand
alot better than what he usually is all in with

Don't forget though that the board was paired. He could make a Str8 or a flush and still run into a full boat and lose.

13 outs if you call the all-in with the aim of drawing to the straight or the flush. 9 diamonds, 3 2's that aren't a diamond and the 3 7's that aren't a diamond. I didn't crunch the exact numbers but Hansen would have less than a 50/50 chance considering that if another 3 comes, an ace comes, or the board pairs on the turn or river then Hansen would have to catch the straight flush to win the hand. This is not a situation you want to put yourself in when you would still have a nice stack if you folded. In my opinion it would be wiser to save your chips for a situation where the odds are more in your favor.

I think you have Hansen and Lederer mixed up Humpy... From what I've seen Lederer is a fairly tight player and Gus is quite the opposite. Hansen is loose in the sense that he will call pre-flop with hands that a lot of people wouldn't consider playing. Because his play on the flop is so damn good as is his ability to read people he can get away with it though.

Also Gus doesn't know if he is drawing to a split-pot possibillity or whether Lederer has a higher flushdraw.

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Originally Posted by Toasty

Also Gus doesn't know if he is drawing to a split-pot possibillity or whether Lederer has a higher flushdraw.

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If he knows Howard at all then he know theres a very small chance that howard would reraise all in with that draw. Hes more conservative then that.

I was trying to figure out what Lederer had from Hansen's POV. But already knowing Lederer's hole cards it's tough to pretend.

Lederer is in UTG so he will play a smaller range of hands. He obviously has something big.
What would he have that would include a 3? Would he have played a 53? Even if i was suited I can't imagine he would. The only way I can imagine Lederer playing a 3 is A3s, if that's the case, it's obviously not :diamond:

What else? AA, KK, QQ, JJ. If he doesn't have the diamond of that rank he takes away one of my outs.

Honestly, I'm surprised Gus didn't call.

And Les, Danuts, you are right. I meant to say Gus is a loose player, not Howard.

9 +3 +3 still = 15 to me ??????

You're right maxxscam.... I obviously can't add.

He had 15 outs at the turn, the ace of diamonds would've given Howard a boat. But then if a blank fell on the turn, he'd be down to 14 outs since whatever was on the turn pairing on the river (even as a diamond) would give Howard a boat as well. But of course Howard could hit a boat on the turn and have Gus drawing dead too.

Here's the overall chances to win:

Cards %win %lose %tie Pot equity Odds
As 3s 56.97 42.73 0.30 57.10% 1.33:1
6d 4d 42.73 56.97 0.30 42.90% 0.75:1

However, if Howard had a hand like AA, it'd nearly be a coinflip, so it is kind of surprising that Hansen folded. I guess he knew that Lederer must have at least a 3, if not 55 or 33, to make that rereraise on the flop. Or, for once, Gus didn't feel like gambling.

I agree. Not calling was so unlike Gus. I've seen him play complete Rippyrags and just slay people. Maybe Lederer scares him a little.