Good call?

I have no read on this guy but I didn't see how leading into me with his pot overbet on the turn after check-calling the flop could be anything but a bluff (though the possibility of KQ, KA, or two-pair worried me). Anyways, assuming no read, would you make this call? It was a $90 call to me with $140 in the pot, and I'd say there's more than a 50-50 chance that this play is a bluff. I do sometimes get myself in trouble misreading overbets like this though.

***** Hand History for Game 1097588985 *****
$100 NL Hold'em - Sunday, October 24, 21:01:46 EDT 2004
Table Table 14733 (6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: aztec321 ( $95 )
Seat 5: talbott69 ( $214.1 )
Seat 6: Meekoman ( $53.2 )
Seat 8: lakong ( $111.45 )
Seat 10: NotTooGood27 ( $134 )
Seat 3: Land_Pirate ( $75 )
Land_Pirate posts small blind [$1].
talbott69 posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to NotTooGood27 [ Kd Jh ]
Meekoman folds.
>You have options at Table 11357 Table!.
lakong calls [$2].
>You have options at Table 14956 (6 max) Table!.
>You have options at Table 11357 Table!.
NotTooGood27 raises [$7].
aztec321 calls [$7].
Land_Pirate folds.
>You have options at Table 14183 (6 max) Table!.
talbott69 folds.
>You have options at Table 11357 Table!.
lakong calls [$5].
>You have options at Table 11357 Table!.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ks, 8c, 9h ]
>You have options at Table 14183 (6 max) Table!.
lakong checks.
NotTooGood27 bets [$15].
>You have options at Table 11357 Table!.
>You have options at Table 11357 Table!.
aztec321 folds.
lakong calls [$15].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5s ]
>You have options at Table 14183 (6 max) Table!.
lakong is all-In.
NotTooGood27 calls [$89.45].
** Dealing River ** [ 9c ]
lakong shows [ 2s, Kc ] two pairs, kings and nines.
NotTooGood27 shows [ Kd, Jh ] two pairs, kings and nines.
NotTooGood27 wins $230.90 from the main pot with two pairs, kings and nines with jack kicker.
aztec321 has left the table.
lakong has left the table.

Personally, I'd have folded and told myself I was more likely to be up against AK,KQ, 98s, or a set of 9s,8s. His play does somewhat reek of bluff, but he could have been slowplaying the flop and then when the second spade hit on the turn he decided to speed up. I'd have been wrong, as he called you with pre-flop with garbage. Is there that many idiots like this in the $100 NL rooms?.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by twosevoff

It was a $90 call to me with $140 in the pot, and I'd say there's more than a 50-50 chance that this play is a bluff

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Kinda seems like that answers your question -- if you trust your >50 figure.

I personally couldn't call it -- because I wouldn't be able to convince myself that there was a 50% chance he was bluffing. I sorta suck at reading that stuff. So I'd err on the side of caution.

Play at the NL100 rooms is generally better than at NL50 and quite a bit better than NL25, but there are still a pretty good amount of fish/people on tilt at any given time, especially during the high action times(nights/weekends).

As for the hand, I just don't see why he would play it that way if he had me beat. If he hit his 67 straight draw, why not check-raise or at least bet something callable. If he was slowplaying a set or two-pair on the flop, why wouldn't he check-raise me all-in instead of leading into me? If he had KQ or KA, why would he make a bet that pretty much only 1-2 hands I could have other than those that beat him could possibly call? The more that I think about it, his play might be worth trying when you do hit a monster flop in a raised pot. Check/call the flop and then lead into the raiser with an oversized bet on the turn if nothing too threatening comes. This should set off a bluff-alert in most players, and you'll probably get paid off if he has a legit hand. Although, I think just check-raising the turn or flop or even leading into the raiser on the flop are probably better options.

Against good players, it's true that the overbet can sometimes induce calls when you have a monster.

On a side note, I've gotten into a lot of trouble making calls vs. big bets by saying "He can't have such and such a hand because he should have slowplayed/check-raised it." Don't expect crappy players to play in ways that make sense. That's what makes them crappy players.