Fish play or no?

I am still thinking this one over. If I calculated it correctly on the flop, his push gave me almost exactly 2:1 pot odds, and with two cards to come my draw should be just a hair better than that, yes?

After the hand he (rather nicely) accused me of playing that hand like a fish, but I think it might be at least a break-even call. Pot odds would have been worse if I hadn't semi-bluffed already on the flop, or if he had more money.


***** Hand History for Game 1636216380 *****
$50 NL Hold'em - Wednesday, February 23, 14:49:46 EDT 2005
Table Bet the Pot (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: midnight234 ( $50 )
Seat 5: HRPuffinStuf ( $212.4 )
Seat 7: tootsie_rol ( $62.45 )
Seat 9: stressball10 ( $149.25 )
Seat 1: Ace2170 ( $21.9 )
Seat 8: Creamtea ( $46.55 )
Seat 6: I_johnny_I ( $73.4 )
Seat 10: eufajinaya ( $35.8 )
Seat 4: junnc ( $31.5 )
Seat 3: novello69 ( $27.05 )
tootsie_rol posts small blind [$0.5].
Creamtea posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to stressball10 [ Ac Jc ]
stressball10 raises [$3].
eufajinaya calls [$3].
Ace2170 folds.
midnight234 folds.
novello69 calls [$3].
junnc folds.
HRPuffinStuf calls [$3].
I_johnny_I folds.
tootsie_rol folds.
Creamtea folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9c, Kc, 4h ]
stressball10 bets [$4].
eufajinaya folds.
novello69 is all-In [$24.05]
HRPuffinStuf folds.
stressball10 calls [$20.05].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Td ]
** Dealing River ** [ 8c ]
stressball10 shows [ Ac, Jc ] a flush, ace high.
novello69 doesn't show [ Kd, 9d ] two pairs, kings and nines.
stressball10 wins $58.6 from the main pot with a flush, ace high.
novello69: damn river

I never like going all in on a draw.....but you still had to think you had a lot of outs if he didn't have 2 pair (which he did) because you still could have hit your Ace.

Would somebody really go all in like that with only top pair though? It seems more likely he has 2 pair or a set.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mcpeepants

Would somebody really go all in like that with only top pair though? It seems more likely he has 2 pair or a set.

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I agree, I figured he was very likely on two pair. Probably not a set, most players wouldn't be quite so eager with that hand. So I was only looking at the 9 clubs as outs, but that's still 35% to hit with two cards to come, which is better than 2:1. However, I suppose he did have four outs to make a boat even if I did make my flush - how much does that affect my odds? Since his two pair contained two clubs, that four out draw doesn't affect my draw in any way (I still have 9 outs) - but if I hit it on the turn, he's got 4 outs on the river card to beat me.

The only other thing I could suspect is that he was on AK, which means my flush is invulnerable if I hit it (he has no outs to beat the flush on the river, if I make it on the turn). But again it removes my ace as an out.

I think the fact that it takes so much thinking to even think if you are breaking even tells you that it's not a good call.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mcpeepants

I think the fact that it takes so much thinking to even think if you are breaking even tells you that it's not a good call.

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I disagree with that... a lot of close calls take a lot of thought. It would be nice to only get into wildly +EV or -EV situations, because then all your decisions would be easy and you'd be very profitable. But sometimes you have to make hard calls like this one.

Look at it another way - if I fold here every time this situation occurs, I lose money on it. If I call, assuming my odds are what I'm thinking they are, I'm at least breaking even, and maybe pushing over into slightly profitable. (I'm not sure about that though; it seems like even though the flush is a little better than 2:1, his four out draw to the boat compromises it a bit.)

Yeah, that's true, but if I'm having to decide whether or not to call an all in I don't exactly have time to calculate exact percentages including whether or not he's going to make a full house. If I do some quick math and figure out it's going to be really close without him even getting a full house then I'll probably lay it down. It's really easy for me to get attached to hands and hit the call button when I think I MIGHT have small +EV, so this is just my idea.

Ah, understood. I don't mind taking the full timer to work it out, personally. I want to make good decisions even if they initially smell like bad ones.

Today, by the way, is the first day in forever that flushes have been my friends instead of my enemies. I don't chase them much any more because I hardly ever have the pot odds, and usually can't get paid off when I hit. But today I've hit three for a total of close to $180. This one beat out even the previous one:

***** Hand History for Game 1636382249 *****
$50 NL Hold'em - Wednesday, February 23, 15:36:02 EDT 2005
Table Bet the Pot (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 9: stressball10 ( $179.05 )
Seat 6: KJD_15 ( $31.65 )
Seat 4: KevinkC4 ( $15.65 )
Seat 8: funluvnroofn ( $56.6 )
Seat 7: SFGDAVE ( $56.55 )
Seat 2: tariyaki3182 ( $89.05 )
Seat 3: Sigmanpp ( $47.3 )
Seat 10: Redskinn ( $47.5 )
Seat 5: Tyzing ( $50.5 )
KevinkC4 posts small blind [$0.5].
Tyzing posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to stressball10 [ Jd Td ]
KJD_15 folds.
SFGDAVE folds.
funluvnroofn folds.
stressball10 calls [$1].
Redskinn folds.
tariyaki3182 calls [$1].
Sigmanpp calls [$1].
KevinkC4 calls [$0.5].
Tyzing raises [$2].
stressball10 calls [$2].
tariyaki3182 calls [$2].
Sigmanpp calls [$2].
KevinkC4 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9d, 2d, Ah ]
AngelOFNuts has joined the table.
Tyzing bets [$4].
stressball10 calls [$4].
tariyaki3182 folds.
Sigmanpp folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4d ]
Tyzing bets [$7].
stressball10 raises [$14].
Tyzing calls [$7].
** Dealing River ** [ Js ]
Tyzing is all-In [$29.5]
stressball10 calls [$29.5].
Tyzing shows [ Qs, Ad ] a pair of aces.
stressball10 shows [ Jd, Td ] a flush, jack high.
stressball10 wins $105 from the main pot with a flush, jack high.

Here's a more specific look at those four outs he had, on the first hand.

If I am on the flush draw, my odds to hit with two cards to come are 35%, or about 2% better than 2:1. He then has four outs (in one card) to beat that, because 1. it's only relevant if I hit my flush, and 2. if I hit my flush on one card, he can't possibly make his draw on that card, so now he's only got one card left. His 4 outs are out of 46 remaining cards, so that's 1 in 11.5, or 10.5 to 1 against, or about 8.5% likely to happen. My flush is invalidated 8.5% of the time after I hit it, so I am left with about a 32% chance of winning the hand (.35 x .915 = .32). That's now just a hair worse than 2:1 odds; for calculating odds during a hand it may as well be 2:1. This is all of course assuming that he always has two pair (not a set or TPTK, or whatever else he might have). This also assumes his two pair incorporates the two clubs on the board; otherwise you have to adjust my outs a little bit downward for the possibility that one of my club outs will give him the boat.

My pot odds were as I mentioned almost exactly 2:1. There was $12 in the pot on the flop, and I bet $4 to make it $16; he pushed all in for $24, making my call $20 to win $40. So basically this is not a positive or negative expectation play, which in my book makes it better than folding.

But especially on the days I win. :D

if your odds are 32% to hit and your pot odds are exactly 2-1, you should lay it down. It is a very slight negative expectation 33 1/3% to 32% but negative none the less. if you make this call 100 times you lose money.

On a slight tangent...

Quote:

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After the hand he (rather nicely) accused me of playing that hand like a fish

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Even if it's slightly negative on this hand. Is it possible to think about the +EV that comes from cultivating a certain image. Will it affect this guys play against you in the future? Is there some long term strategic advantage to be gained? What about the times he puts you on a flush draw when you have the nuts, bluffing, etc?

PokerStove (for post flop with a board of Kc 9c 4h)

AcJc: 35.556%
Kd9d: 64.444%

Odds for you: 1.81:1

Pot at All-In: $41.55 with a $20.05 to call to you.
Pot odds: 2.07:1

Money making call.

Note: The couple of additional % for you hand come from runner-runner like (A-A, J-J, A-J, Q-T)