These kinda things make me wanna play bad poker

I almost called, thinking that I was up against a couple big hands and could possibly sneak in and take a big pot, but then I figured the best id do is flop some sorta draw and face potsized bets at least...

***** Hand History for Game 1668865626 *****
$25 NL Hold'em - Tuesday, March 01, 17:26:59 EDT 2005
Table Table 37145 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: fleurdumal ( $47.1 )
Seat 2: Chorvengoran ( $9.65 )
Seat 3: ElysiumSA ( $24.75 )
Seat 4: DavidM48 ( $25 )
Seat 5: SarahAnn ( $53.07 )
Seat 6: cyclops1066 ( $15.77 )
Seat 7: boatn ( $3.92 )
Seat 8: linf1 ( $45.54 )
Seat 10: SlappYou ( $26.05 )
Seat 9: raisingbear ( $25 )
ElysiumSA posts small blind [$0.1].
DavidM48 posts big blind [$0.25].
raisingbear posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to SlappYou [ 9s 8s ]
SarahAnn folds.
cyclops1066 folds.
boatn calls [$0.25].
linf1 calls [$0.25].
raisingbear checks.
SlappYou calls [$0.25].
>You have options at Table 36872 Table!.
fleurdumal folds.
Chorvengoran calls [$0.25].
ElysiumSA raises [$2.4].
DavidM48 folds.
boatn folds.
linf1 calls [$2.25].
raisingbear folds.
SlappYou folds.
Chorvengoran calls [$2.25].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7d, Tc, Jd ]
ElysiumSA bets [$7].
linf1 is all-In [$43.04]
>You have options at Table 36872 Table!.
Chorvengoran is all-In [$7.15]
ElysiumSA is all-In [$15.25]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6c ]
** Dealing River ** [ 5h ]
ElysiumSA shows [ Qs, Qd ] a pair of queens.
linf1 shows [ Ts, Td ] three of a kind, tens.
Chorvengoran doesn't show [ Qc, Jh ] a pair of jacks.
linf1 wins $20.79 from side pot #2 with three of a kind, tens.
linf1 wins $28.65 from side pot #1 with three of a kind, tens.
linf1 wins $28.5 from the main pot with three of a kind, tens.
Chorvengoran has left the table.
boatn has left the table.

It's best to ignore the flop after you fold.

I love suited connectors, I'd call that.

89s is a pretty good hand to have behind raisers, and considering there were no re-raisers, i'd say you would have been safe to call this one. Then again it's easy for us to say that when the flop could have been AK2...

in cash games, suited connectors are the hands you want against the rocks who wait for AK/AA/KK etc..

lol. You guys, come on. That's a clear fold. You aren't serious right?

So you know you are up against high pocket pairs, and you've got 89s, and you're saying you'd consider calling a 9xBB raise with a call ahead of you? It can't get much more clear than this that you are beat. Unless you have an ultra read on this guy and know he's a maniac raising with anything, I just don't get it.

Smackin knows he did the right move but was just pointing it out as an unfortunate flop to witness after his fold. And mcpee just emphasized that no matter what comes up on the flop, he still made the right move.

So explain to me how calling that PFR has +EV and it will make for some interesting discussion. And I'm not buying anything you say about implied odds.

threads like this make me waste time

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AllinLife

threads like this make me waste time

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And replies like this waste even more time!

I doubt I would call this any time in the future, as I dont see 89s giving me much more than a weak draw of some sort but it was frustrating seeing the perfect flop and the perfect action! dammit. Oh well I guess its better seein that than having a disconnect after flopping four of a kind.

suited connectors are exactly the cards you want in this pot. you pay the raise and see the flop. Either you hit the flop and drain their stacks or you miss and are out the $2.25. Your hand is very low risk, with a very high reward if you hit. I would call that bet every time

Well next time I will definitely think about it. I wont be forgetting this hand the next couple days.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by magicmntn

suited connectors are exactly the cards you want in this pot. you pay the raise and see the flop. Either you hit the flop and drain their stacks or you miss and are out the $2.25. Your hand is very low risk, with a very high reward if you hit. I would call that bet every time

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Or you hit the flop just enough to have a draw. Then you have some decisions ahead of you. Presumably you'll play by the odds? Most standard raises are going to put you out of the game here then, and most preflop raisers are going to raise again here.

How many flops hit you in this situation? Any three of your suit plus the specific cards to make your straight, plus flopped sets or two pair. With connectors, you have
---xx, --xx+, -xx++, and xx+++ as possible straights to hit.

Chance that the flush will come: 9/50*8/49*7/48 = .004286. We'll be generous and say this happens .5% of the time.

You can make your set if the first and either following card matches one of your cards, or if the first doesn't and both of the others do: 6/50*(2/49+2/48) + 6/49*2/48 = .009898 + .005102 = 0.015 = 1.5% of the time.

You can make two pair if the first card matches and either of the following match your other card, or if the both others match exactly. Chance that you flop two pair: 6/50*(3/49+3/48) + 6/49*3/48 = .014847 + .007653 = .0225 = 2.25% of the time.

You can make your straight if a card on both sides of your cards come, and then another card on either side comes, or if three cards to one side or the other come. Chance that you flop your straight = 4/50*4/49*8/48+4/50*4/49*4/48+4/50*4/49*4/48 = 0.001088 + 0.000544 + 0.000544 = 0.002177 = 0.22% of the time

So cumulatively, this will flop you a winning hand 0.5% + 1.5% +2.25% + 0.22% < 5% of the time. If you can make over 20 times the size of the bet from this happening, it's a good decision.

Note: I believe that if anything, I errored on the side of generosity in my calculations (ex. not removing the times you flop both a set AND two pair = a full house). I think the actual numbers are even lower than I have up there, but mine should be fairly close.

Your flopped flush math is incorrect. It is actually 11/50*10/49*9/48, but that is a minor error. The odds of flopping a straight, open ended, flush, 4-flush, two pair, trips, or quads is about 1:2.8. In a 4 way pot, this is pretty good, especially since if the hand completes you will stand an excellent chance of breaking somebody. I realize if you flop a draw you have decisions to make, but you would obviously make a smart odds decision like any other hand. But if you flop no hand, and no draw, it costs you just the small initial investment. Suited connectors in a multi way pot are some good.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

If you can make over 20 times the size of the bet from this happening, it's a good decision.

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Exactly. lol I completely agree with you JefferyGB and thanks for running the numbers. So you'd need to make around $55 in the hand that you hit something in order to make up for the 95% of the rest of the time that you didn't. Not to mention all the money you'd be throwing away betting out your weak flush and straight draws that come on the flop (lets face it, 9 is not the kind of card you want to use to complete your flush draw). I still can't believe I'm reading and having to write this stuff. heh

One more thing. I don't want to leave the impression that it never makes sense to do this. If you are playing in a tournament and have a monster chip lead I can see it making some sense, especially if the guy with AA or KK is really short stacked. You can't lose much more than what they have in their stack, and if there's a 10% chance of knocking them out and advancing you over 10% higher in the payout structure, then it's worth it.

Magicmntn, i don't know what stakes you play at but i'm assuming they're higher than here, a 10 BB raise is not a small investement, if you say it doesn't matter because you've only lost 10BB how many other crap hands are worth 10BB? If you play 1/2 then $2.5 is ok to call but not at 0.1/0.25. This is an easy fold as everyone else has said.

You're right. My math for a flush was off and it is indeed what you reported. That brings the chance of flopping a flush up to .008418 = 0.85%. That doesn't even affect the total I calculated...it's still less than the 5% I rounded up to.

Chances of flopping quads are taken care of in the calculations for flopping trips.

You're right that you will flop draws a lot more. I'm not going to bother calculating it out, but I'll grant that it may be about 1:3, or 25% of the time. Even the most likely of those to complete (excluding the straight flush draw, since this requires such precise cards that it's virtually no error overlooking it) will only do so by the river a grand 35% of the time. With several of them, you won't even necessarily win the hand just because you complete your draw. If your opponent has AA/KK, there's about a 20% chance he'll catch another by the river, making your two pair/set worthless. The board can pair to give him a higher two pair, further devaluing two pair. Ignoring all of that and introducing huge error (in favor of making this play):

Of the 25% of the time you flop something, 5% is a made hand and 20% is a draw. Suppose that of that 20%, every draw completes 35%. That's .2*.35 = .07 = 7% of the time that a draw will come and develop into the best hand. There's no way that 35% is accurate, so I'm going to do something I haven't done in any other part of these calculations: round down to 5%. So in total, this will win a hand 10% of the time, assuming you can stay in to catch every draw that could come.

You now need to make 10 times the size of the bet when it comes in AND lose no extra money when it doesn't. The latter is not going to happen if you're chasing draws. And again, all of that basically ignores the fact that many of these hands won't necessarily win by the river and that very few of your draws will come through anywhere near 35% of the time.

If you're playing with opponents who play sufficiently fishy to pay off 10x this large a bet long term (without having to pay for draws), you should be raping them just playing ABC poker. It's a ring game, when they'll pay off on that wide a range of stuff, I'd much rather have them paying me off when I'm favored to win. As Saucy said, I could theoretically see this being +EV under the right circumstances in a tournament (but then again, the last tournament history I posted, I was scolded for playing WAY too loose).

Note: the one thing I ignored that may be worth factoring in is that your opponents likely have high cards. This would increase the chances that your two pair/trips would win, though it would actually decrease your chances of hitting an xx+++ straight (as well as increasing their chance of developing such a straight into a boat/quads to beat you even though you hit).

I agree you would need to make around $55 in order to make this a profitable call. But if the hand hits, you are going to make the $55 necessary to make it a profitable call.

Unfortunately at a $25 table this is going to be practically impossible unless you get two people to call your entire stack.

Yea fuck 89s. Never did anything for me until after I folded it.

For all the aforementioned reasons, I don't like playing suited connectors for that much of a raise. If you could get in for no more than 5xBB extra, and there were at least two opponents also in the hand, and both of them had decent sized stacks to pay you off - I'd call. Usually I only call 3xBB or less with suited connectors. (Sometimes I go ahead and raise that much in an unraised pot with suited connectors, because it gives you other ways to win if the flop misses you completely. But that's a discussion for another thread.) But for 10xBB - forget it. Not worth the money.

i say no dice to this call. Odds of getting what you want are 5% or less, probably significantly less when you factor in the possibilities that your flopped hand is beaten anyway. i'd say 5xBB... is pushing it, but with 89s i'd probably call it, but 10x no way unless me and someone else in the hand had huge stacks.