Would you call this on a draw?

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03-21-2005, 08:09 AM
Borax

Would you call this on a draw?

0.25/0.5$ NL 10 players

Dealt to Borax in EP (J:heart:J:club:)
X raise 2$
Borax call 2$
Y reraise to 6$
X call 4$
Borax call 4$
FLOP (A:heart:K:heart:Q:heart:)
X check
Borax bet 6$
Y raise to 40$ all in
X fold
Borax call 34$ all in
TURN (8:diamond:)
RIVER (2:club:)
Borax shows (J:heart:J:club:) a pair of J's
Y show (K:spade:K:diamond:) three K's
Y wins pot

My thoughts: From my read I knew he had KK, AA, QQ or maybe AKs
I figured I had:
1 out for royal straight flush (10:heart:)
3 outs for a straight (3 other tens)
8 outs for nut flush (remaining :heart:s)
+ some very small chance of hitting 2 more J's
= about 4x12= 48% chance to win
if he had AK I get 2 more outs for two remaining J's = 4x14=52%
So I'm close to a coin flip here I would say.
Would you have called this :?: :?:
03-21-2005, 09:31 AM
mcpeepants

The pot odds are 64:34, or 1.88:1 so since you are about 1:1 to call this I would. It has +EV in the long run, even though you lost this time.
03-21-2005, 10:06 AM
a500lbgorilla

With the money already, you'll be fine.

-'rilla
03-21-2005, 10:10 AM
dsaxton

It's also worth noting that your opponent almost certainly has a set here and can pair the board to have you drawing dead to a royal flush, so not only do you have to hit one of your draws, you will usually have to avoid a whole collection of cards on the turn and river. I don't really think it's worth it.
03-21-2005, 10:17 AM
Pyroxene

Re: Would you call this on a draw?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Borax

0.25/0.5$ NL 10 players

Dealt to Borax in EP (J:heart:J:club:)
X raise 2$
Borax call 2$
Y reraise to 6$
X call 4$
Borax call 4$
FLOP (A:heart:K:heart:Q:heart:)
X check
Borax bet 6$
Y raise to 40$ all in
X fold
Borax call 34$ all in
TURN (8:diamond:)
RIVER (2:club:)
Borax shows (J:heart:J:club:) a pair of J's
Y show (K:spade:K:diamond:) three K's
Y wins pot

PokerStove says:

1.78 : 1 odds and your pot odds are 1.88 : 1. It is a slightly EV+ call. So . . . even if he flopped his cards up and you knew what he had, it is a good call. Not by much, but still a good call.
03-21-2005, 10:25 AM
Borax

Quote:

dsaxton wrote: ....you will usually have to avoid a whole collection of cards on the turn and river. I don't really think it's worth it.

3x A's , 3x Q's and 1x K = 7 cards to make me need the royal straight flush after the turn. Not too bad I think, but a good point still.
03-21-2005, 10:50 AM
mcpeepants

Can't argue with PokerStove. Call that bitch!