AA out of position with deep money and an unknown opponent

Pacific Poker $200 NL $2/$4 blinds

Late night, play has been fairly sane. Dropped down to beat up on the $100 guys a bit, then this table had pretty ok numbers.

My first orbit, no reads

I'm UTG +1 with :ad: :ah: and $205
Villian has $171.35

UTG limps, I make it $10, UTG+2 calls, folded to the BB who calls too, UTG folds

3 to the flop for $31.25
:3d: :Js: :Qh:
BB checks, I bet $25, villian calls, BB folds

Heads-up to the turn for $80
:7h:
I bet $50, villian calls

Heads-up to the river for $180
:8h:
I check...

Tough with no reads.

I could see the villain calling your preflop $10 with JQs and having you in trouble. I can't see him having two hearts in the hole unless they're something like JT-hearts maybe. But if he had something like JT-hearts then I don't think he'd call your $25 post-flop bet. Then when we see that he's called your $50 post-turn bet...

I'm thinking he has JQ if he's a tight player... if he's a loose cannon there's no telling. Either way I understand your check after the river.

If he came betting after your on the river, then fold is the only answer I guess.

I'll be interested to hear how this turned out...

I figure any meaningful river bet ties me to the pot. But there is enough left behind that I can give him a chance to bluff a missed draw off the QJ or sell me the nuts for less than my stack.

There really is no telling what this guy has. If he flopped 2 pair, I think he would have popped you with a raise there. If he didn't raise you on the flop, he'd surely raise you on the turn with 2 pair with two hearts looking at him.

I think there is a real good chance this guy has KQo and YHIG. I've gotten opponents all-in on the $100 game with worse hands than that post flop, so it wouldn't surprise me.

The thing I don't like is that your opp is simply calling BIG bets. If he has a strong made hand I would expect a raise at some point. Without the read, there really is no way of knowing.

It's a coin flip for me between something like KTs hearts and KQo...

My guess is KQo.

I would have been really tempted to put this guy all in on the turn...

What is the river action after you check? I'm dying to hear how this ends.

This brings up a point - I hate how you can't see your opps cards at showdown at Pacific. I replay so many hands in the history player and can't figure out what the hell these people could be calling my massive bets with.

He checked behind and MHIG.

Okay, I'm curious to look at the opposite side, particularly since the consensus seems to be that if he had a strong hand he would have come over you.

Let's say I'm Fnord's opponent and I have JQ in the hole.
I see that flop and I like it - the only think I'm worried is that Fnord might have JJ, QQ - or AK, AT and drawing.

Fnord bets just under the pot size. I call. He's giving me nice money for what I'm thinking is a good hand.

Turn comes and there are two hearts on board, but Fnord's bet is too big to be a guy hoping against hope for the 1/5 chance of another heart. The turn also doesn't scare me against the straight possibilities. But he's putting in good money voluntarily, so why chase away his generous nature with a raise?

River comes - another heart - okay that's scary, but now the previous betting turns into a check. I think that Fnord's definitely not on a flush or draw - and if he still had a good set he'd hit me with another bet.

So in that scenario, after he checks I'm thinking a strong bet will chase Fnord off. I had $171 going into the hand, my stack is now down to (171 - 85 = $86) and Fnord has about $110 so he can cover me. So my maximum bet of $86 into a $180 pot maybe isn't scary enough. If he has the set, he'll call and I'm busted. If he doesn't have the set, he'll fold and my additional bet won't change anything. So I call.


Now obviously this isn't what happened, but do people think that this sequence of logic is decent or crazy-newbie-flawed?

set

nope

The only things he would be feasibly calling that you could beat would be AQ or KQ, yes? You are beaten by QJ, QQ, or JJ, or a backdoor flush. QJ might be a little ridiculous for a 10 dollar preflop raise, but with no read it's certainly a possibility. I think it could go either way. Is checking the river and calling a reasonable bet a bad idea? If he has AQ or KQ he might think the pot is sufficiently large and be worried about a check raise or something and he might check. Or he could bet smelling weakness. Tough hand.

Ok, so I'm a rook, I'm just learning bankroll management, and this is what, my 4th post? But, I haven't heard this mentioned yet:
Is it inconceivable that this guy has KK and has put Fnord on AQs? Fnord "only" raised 2.5BB, which, in and of itself isn't much, so if I'm this other guy, I could see him having AQs. The fact that Fnord raised 2.5BB from UTG+1 maybe says he's stronger than AQs, but maybe not... it's early, no one has any reads, right?
If I'm Villian and I'm sittin on KK and *IF* I put Fnord on AQs, I play the hand exactly like he did, calling his bets, no reraising. I'm dying to see how this hand plays out, but if I'm Villian, with the bets Fnord makes I have long since dropped the idea that you were drawing for the flush, and I'm thinking my KK is better than his TpTk.
BUT, the reason I don't think KK is likely is because of all of his cold calling. Some of the best advice I've taken from this site is "Pump it or Dump it", presumably meaning raise or fold, almost never cold call (a huge "leak" in most people's game, if I remember what I have read on here). Giving Villian the benefit of the doubt and assuming he is a good player (?), all his cold calling says "I have you soundly beat, and I'm pleased that you are freely handing me your money of your own volition." Cold calling sounds more like QQ or JJ in this case.
Was any of this logical, or does this go under the title "What a fish would say...."

Merce, if you have KK and you put the opponent on AQs here then you should reraise them to get your chips in while you have the best hand and keep them off the flush draw (if you're talking about hearts being the suit).

Other than that it sounds logical. It really smells like QQ or JJ. If he has AQ he'll probably check behind as the pot's already big enough.

To me this is about the worst possible board when holding AA, especially deep stacked out of position. Any major bet has your ass kicked.

Is it possible to make a decent bet here without getting committed?

Is 'blocking bet' the term Im looking for? What I mean is, you want to bet enough to prevent a raise from any weaker hands, but not so much that youre pot comitted.

Hes probably got you read for a big hand other than queens so its possible the check just confirms that this is a scary board for you.

Id probably just check and fold too though.