Calculated Risk or Maniac

How would you rate this play?


POKERSTARS GAME #1521728965: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2005/04/14 - 07:45:51 (ET)
Table 'Adria' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: MBrock ($39 in chips)
Seat 2: Mad-shoe-ter ($99.75 in chips)
Seat 3: Bo G ($102.50 in chips)
Seat 4: SwiftE ($134.85 in chips)
Seat 5: yotekiller ($39.25 in chips)
Seat 6: alexeimartov ($196 in chips)
Seat 7: Studmuffino ($83 in chips)
Seat 8: parputt ($47.25 in chips)
Seat 9: sherryjones ($17.55 in chips)
sherryjones: posts small blind $0.50
MBrock: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Bo G [Qc Qd]
Mad-shoe-ter: folds
Bo G: raises $3 to $4
SwiftE: calls $4
yotekiller: folds
alexeimartov: calls $4
Studmuffino: folds
parputt: folds
sherryjones: folds
MBrock: folds
*** FLOP *** [Ts 7c 9s]
Bo G: bets $10
SwiftE: calls $10
alexeimartov: raises $182 to $192 and is all-in
Bo G: calls $88.50 and is all-in
SwiftE: folds
*** TURN *** [Ts 7c 9s] [Tc]
alexeimartov said, "i've got 47s"
*** RIVER *** [Ts 7c 9s Tc] [Ah]
alexeimartov said, "i lose"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Bo G: shows [Qc Qd] (two pair, Queens and Tens)
alexeimartov: mucks hand
Bo G collected $217.50 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $220.50 | Rake $3
Board [Ts 7c 9s Tc Ah]
Seat 1: MBrock (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: Mad-shoe-ter folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Bo G showed [Qc Qd] and won ($217.50) with two pair, Queens and Tens
Seat 4: SwiftE folded on the Flop
Seat 5: yotekiller folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: alexeimartov shows [4s 7s]
Seat 7: Studmuffino folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: parputt (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: sherryjones (small blind) folded before Flop

He is a favorite, so I'd say strong play.

I didn't think so thats why I asked. He was on flush draw and a pair.

Well, if he put you on an overpair, then he has 14 outs to a winning hand here (except the Q and a paired board). His chances of making his hand with two to come is 1- (33/47 * 32/46), or 51%. He is a favorite here over your QQ, even though it's a close call. In short, you got lucky here. If you made the same play with the same cards 100 times, you'd lose $4.35. The only seriously questionable part about his play was his preflop call with suited garbage.

Given these stats do you fold a high PP to a raise like that given that statistically you might be a slight underdog?

Well, if I KNOW that is what he has, which you don't, then I call, because you already have money in the pot.


But you could be killed here, or way ahead. It depends on your read.

Was hard to have a read because it was 6th hand since I sat at the table so I didn't see enough.

I figured he hit a pair and had me on 2 over cards ala AK and trying to buy the pot after I raised pre flop. If I did have AK its an easy fold but with a high PP it was much harder to pass on such a huge pot.

You thought he thought you just had AK and was restealing?? For that much money? No way. Wishful thinking. Playing overpairs for a call of all your chips after the flop is usually a losing proposition in my experience. He did call a huge preflop raise after all. He could have a set of 10s, 9s, 7s, 68 sooted, a KK, AA, 109, etc. The only other hands he might have -- and this would require a read, are A10 or JJ. I think youre behind way more than you're ahead with this call against a random opponent. I know that people unable to lay down overpairs have made me a lot of money. Conversely, I've given others a lot of money making calls like you made here.

Thanks for the input guys. This was exactly what I was looking for because even though I won a huge pot I didn't feel good about it.

Getting married to overpairs is one of my biggest leaks. Looking at PT I am lossing money with AA and KK
:(

"Getting married to overpairs is one of my biggest leaks. Looking at PT I am lossing money with AA and KK"

you could have 12 kids with aa and kk and you shouldn't be losing money with them. how many hands is that over?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Greedo017

"Getting married to overpairs is one of my biggest leaks. Looking at PT I am lossing money with AA and KK"

you could have 12 kids with aa and kk and you shouldn't be losing money with them. how many hands is that over?

---

I have just over 6,000 hands in PT and AA 25 times with Net $8.15 and KK 35 times with net -$11.70

Fix that asap those should be your biggest winners. I wish I could tell you how exactly to play these better but I dont know - maybe some smarter guys could tell you. Try going all-in preflop.

Did you have a read? Without a read I lay that down, you only have $4 invested so you can get away from that hand cheap.