pot flop, bet-fold turn. His range is wider than you think.
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pot flop, bet-fold turn. His range is wider than you think.
Agree. He's calling with an lol amount of stuff here. I wouldn't be surprised to see him show up with a BDFD with like A3 with the A of hearts. Just value bet this guy until he gives you a reason not to.Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
holiday time = poker time, became holiday time = drinking time. but look forward to regular updates coming soon to a kiwimark poker op near you.
gogogogo!
tyty, I'm trying to get gogogogogoing
Today's hand:
$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG Hero ($6.04)
UTG+1 gzuy1960 ($2.06)
CO BigShades ($19.30)
BTN pazurzasty ($2.99)
SB freezerman14 ($2.18)
BB lvtxn2 ($6.90)
Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is UTG :9c: :tc:
Hero raises to $0.20, gzuy1960 calls $0.20, 3 folds, lvtxn2 calls $0.15
Flop: :2c: :7c: :qd: ($0.62, 3 players)
lvtxn2 bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, gzuy1960 folds
Turn: :8h: ($1.12, 2 players)
lvtxn2 bets $0.65, Hero raises to $2.30, lvtxn2 goes all-in $6.45, $3.29 to Hero ($3.29)?
Villain is 56/37 over 40ish hands.
Preflop: His calling range from the big blind is wide as a wide thing: {A2+, K5+, K7o+, Q7s+, Q8o+, J8s+, J9o+, 22+, 32s+, 54o+, 75s+}
Flop: On the flop he leads with queens and maybe flush draws, so: {AQ, KQ, Q7s+, Q8o+, suited clubs, 22, 77, QQ, KK+}.
Turn: On the turn he continues betting, I think with the same range as the flop. I've picked up an open-ender to go with my flush draw, so I go for a raise expecting to fold out his draws and his weaker queens. Say his calling range is {22, 77, QQ, KK+, 87cc, Q7s, QT+, KQ, AQ} then that means he's folding 39% of his range to my raise.
I'm risking 2.3 to win 1.72, so I need him to fold 2.3/4.02 = 57% of his range for this to work as a pure bluff. However I have 31% equity against his continuing range, so ...
0.39 * 1.72 = 0.67
0.61 * 0.31 * 3.42 = 0.65
0.61 * 0.69 * -2.3 = -0.97
Meaning even if I get no extra bets on the end, the semibluff has a profit of 0.35. Whoop whoop.
He shoves over, rather than folding or calling. It doesn't really matter if I say he's doing this with his one pair hands, or only his sets, I still have about 30% equity as I need to hit my flush or my straight. That's 2.33 : 1 needed, and with the pot at $9 and my call at $3.29 I'm getting 2.7 : 1, so it's a call.
Yesterday's daily hand review that didn't get posted 'cause I'm lazy...
$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG Volcom156 ($5.78)
UTG+1 innocentis77 ($9.44)
CO Hero ($5.12)
BTN SzitZa ($5.31)
SB prusss ($10.42)
BB Jersey721 ($6.60)
Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is CO :js: :kd:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.20, 2 folds, Jersey721 calls $0.15
Flop: :8d: :td: :jd: ($0.42, 2 players)
Jersey721 checks, Hero bets $0.30, Jersey721 calls $0.30
Turn: :8s: ($1.02, 2 players)
Jersey721 bets $0.30, Hero raises to $1.50, Jersey721 goes all-in $6.10, $3.12 to Hero ($3.12)?
Villain is 71/6 over like 20 hands.
Preflop: His range is obviously wide as shit: {any two suited, 22+, A2+, K2+, Q5o+, J6o+, T7o+, 54o+, 75o+}
Flop: His range for check/calling this flop is {88, 99, TT, JJ, QQ+, KQ, Jx, Tx, 9x 8x, flushes, Qdx, Adx} against which I've got 65% equity.
Turn: I think his range for donk/shoving here is: {flushes, nut flush draws, 8x, 88, TT, JJ, QQ+, 99, KQ, AJ} against which I have 35% equity, so I'm fine to call here, but I possibly should've just flatted the donk lead.
Had boog sweat me yesterday at 5NL which was really good, pointed out a couple of things that I'll add to my list of stuff to work on at 10NL- most notably better note-taking, and looking for good spots to iso from out of the blinds.
Today's hand review:
$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG BooG690 ($18.24)
UTG+1 4iro ($5.52)
CO PoseidonAA ($5)
BTN YRMN1B ($11.53)
SB Hero ($12.56)
BB Old2009 ($5)
Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is SB :8s: :ts:
3 folds, YRMN1B raises to $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, YRMN1B calls $0.30
Flop: :td: :kh: :8c: ($0.85, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.65, YRMN1B calls $0.65
Turn: :7s: ($2.15, 2 players)
Hero bets $1.85, YRMN1B calls $1.85
River: :9s: ($5.85, 2 players)
Hero bets $2.75, YRMN1B calls $2.75
Villain had a 48% ATS.
Preflop: I 3bet bluff, needing villain to fold 0.4/(0.57) = 70% of the time for it to be profitable. He's opening 48% of hands and I think continuing with something like {22+, AJs+, AQ, KQs} which is 8.9% of hands, meaning he folds 80% of the time.
Flop: However he calls preflop, but fortunately I flop gin, so I lead out for a cbet, expecting him to call with: {88, TT, JJ-QQ, KK, AA, AK, KQs} against which I've got 62% equity.
Turn: Turn is a bet, and I lead out again. I expect at this point he'll probably drop QQ, but might keep JJ since he turned a gutshot, so hsi range is {88, TT, JJ, KK, AA, AK, KQs} against which I've got 67% equity.
River: on the river the gutshot gets there, so I think he'll call a further value bet with {88, TT, KK, AA, JJ, AK} and probably KQs, but either way I have >60% equity making this a clear value bet.
Alrighty, so with this morning's session I've now done my 10,000 hands at 5NL and am feeling ready to move up and do the 10k at 10NL.
I'm happy with how it went, I'm putting people on ranges much more often, and will continue to work on that at 10NL as well. A few stats for comparison, as far as my other goals were concerned:
VPIP/PFR for the 28k hands at 5NL before this regrind: 13/10
VPIP/PFR for the xk hands at 25NL before this regrind: 17/15
VPIP/PFR for the 10k hands at 5NL during this regrind: 22/19
I've also dropped by cbet from 85% to a bit above 60%, just by looking for spots where it's better for me to check back in position rather than firing a cbet that only folds out worse, so I feel that's much better.
Goals for 10NL include:
Continuing to work on putting people on ranges before every decision.
Getting my head around 3betting more, both for value and for bluffs.
Work on taking more notes.
Same deal as before, if I don't feel happy with my progress after the two weeks/10k hands, then I shall simply stay at 10NL until I do.
Thus far I'm really happy with everything, it feels great to be making tangible progress again, I feel like my game is much better, and I'm enjoying poker a lot more than I had been for a while. It's so easy to forget that what I like most about poker is the learning and overcoming challenges, and just slip into grind grind grind mode, which seems easier but quickly becomes way more stress than fun. Feeling good!
nice work on the 10k hands, enjoy the next 10k!
re sweating - be very careful sweating when both players are at the same table (8sTs hand history) cos if you're in communication over skype/irc/whatever while you're at the table....
hands
9cTc - pre-flop is marginal but shanaia, turn is a call - raising is pretty bad vs a maniac cos he's 3b shoving JJ here
JsKd - pre-flop good, flop fine, and i think your ranges are accurate. Turn I just call vs his donk.
8sTs - i like every street.
For the record, I wasn't sweating him at the time this hand played. I got bored a little later that night and figured I'd take a seat down with him.Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
Thanks for making me look bad Kiwi!
Oooh, shit, didn't even notice in the session review that the hand I picked had boog in it. To be clear, boog sweated me for my first session, and for my second session of the day many hours later he came to try and bully me on my tables- we weren't sweating and playing together :)
I think I'm gonna start posting at least one hand history a week from here in the BC. Any objections of positive reinforcements just sing out, I don't mind if you guys comment here or in the BC thread, I just figure this gets out to a wider audience, so that my analysis can be critiqued or if it's okay can help show other BCers how to analyse.
Today's shall be the first:
Villain is 20/19 over a fair sample, 40% ATS and 75% F3B, seems like a fairly run-of-the-mill reg.
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
CO dragonz1974 ($4.90)
BTN Nu:Tone21 ($24.10)
SB Hero ($18.45)
BB eskalerareal ($14.85)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 4 players) Hero is SB :kd: :as:
1 fold, Nu:Tone21 raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1.20, 1 fold, Nu:Tone21 calls $0.90
Flop: :ks: :5c: :7c: ($2.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $2.10, Nu:Tone21 calls $2.10
Turn: :qc: ($6.70, 2 players)
Hero checks, Nu:Tone21 checks
River: :th: ($6.70, 2 players)
Hero checks, Nu:Tone21 bets $4.10, $4.1 to Hero ($15.15)?
Preflop: I expect he's calling my 3bet with a slightly wider range and more implied-oddsy hands because we're deep and he's got position so something like: {22+, AQ+, AJs, KJs+, QJs}
Flop: The flop gives me a king, and I expect his calling range to a cbet here is {55, 88, KK, AA, AK, KJs+ and club draws}. Against this range I've only got like 34% equity so I can't make a value bet- but what am I 3betting for preflop if not for a Kxx flop? If we say he's also calling with TT-QQ because I cbet a large frequency or whatever, then I get 60% equity, but it seems weird. In any event, in the hand I did bet, and got called.
Turn: When the Qc peels off, I'm pretty much check/folding this turn- all of his flushdraws got there, and KQ now beats me. However it checks through.
River: On the river the only hand combination that I think calls me which I beat is KJs, so I check. He bets out 2/3 pot with a range I expect to me something like: {55, 88, KK, AA, AK, KQ, AJcc+, QJcc} which has me absolutely crushed so this seems like an easy fold.
Thoughts on my analysis? I suspect the problem lies with the preflop calling range I'm assigning him, so any thoughts on that would be great.
post the hands in bc with any analysis/feedback provided in this thread included also. That means people posting here gain the benefit of having critique on their analyses
river check-call as played.
i agree that there is a problem with the pre-flop range assigned he calls retardo suited connectors/Axs/etc pre cos of omg implied odds deep, and a bunch of these hands are calling the flop, even gutshots, for the same reason. Bet-fold turn, river check-call is fine, so is bet-fold. Check-fold is bad after letting the turn check through, like, you gotta be good here sometimes. Sure, his bet-sizing screams value, but he's value betting AK/KJ here as well as bluffing missed draws and lol-merging AQ...
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG WACKWACKWACK ($30.85)
UTG+1 Burke676 ($14.35)
CO Hero ($10)
BTN vacantdream ($9.70)
SB colorwarrior ($4.95)
BB JusteBelmont ($14.30)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is CO :6s: :as:
1 fold, Burke676 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, 3 folds, Burke676 calls $0.40
Flop: :jd: :7h: :ts: ($1.15, 2 players)
Burke676 checks, Hero bets $0.70, Burke676 calls $0.70
Turn: :kh: ($2.55, 2 players)
Burke676 checks, Hero bets $1.80, Burke676 calls $1.80
River: :jh: ($6.15, 2 players)
Burke676 bets $0.40, $0.4 to Hero ($7)?
Villain is 22/2
Preflop: I think villain's limp calling range is: {22+, A2s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo+, QTs, QJo, JT, 54s+ }
Flop: Flop I fire out a cbet, it needs to be right 70/185 = 38% of the time to be profitable.
Hands combos in villain's range: 63+33+31+10+21+3+9+9+21 = 200
He continues with {77, TT, JJ, QQ+, AT-AJ, A7s, KTs+, KJo+, QTs+, QJo, JT, 76s+} = 119 combos
So he's folding 40% of the time making this just profitable as a cbet bluff.
Turn: The turn comes an overcard to the board and gives me a gutshot, so I decide to double barrel. This being the point of analysing the hand, to see if that's terribad or okay.
He has 119 combos in his range at the moment, and I need him to fold 180/435 = 41% of the time for this to be profitable.
Basically it seems like this card has given a whole bunch of his range either two pair or pair+straight draw, and so I don't think I'm getting anywhere near as many folds as I thought i was- certainly not 41%. So this is a pretty rubbish bluff.
I think I'm gonna stop the excess-drinking for a while.
Start with the excess smoking LDFO
Change your operation name to "Hope my BR doesn't go down under"
::cue joke drums::
Instant Rimshot (SFW)Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
In other news, cleaning it with shampoo nearly instantly gets rid of vomit from my bed and pretty much gets rid of the smell as well. Thanks, Internet!
dude, it's been orientation weeks at uni, you live near campus, it's been sunny and warm and the girls lightly clad. Drinking isn't the problem, but what the hell you doing sleeping alone in a pool of vomit?!?!Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiMark
unless the vomit was from an unidentified first year from an unidentified bar/toga party and you didn't want to make her clean it up? but even that isn't really very cool...
Daven is, of course, completely right, but it was a friend's 21st with an open bar at a nice restaurant, so it was kinda easy to get carried away. As they say, it's not the drinking, it's how we're drinking- I didn't really mean I'm gonna hold off on getting drunk for a while, just hold off on getting stupidly vomit-inducingly drunk! :)
Okay, a kinda interesting hand for review today. I liked my thinking throughout it (and more generally the fact that I am thinking throughout it), although there are a couple of spots in it that I'm not sure on.
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
CO Hero ($13.65)
BTN just4cash ($9.75)
SB Scareface63 ($5)
BB nothingoth ($18.35)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 4 players) Hero is CO :jc: :js:
Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, nothingoth raises to $1.40, Hero calls $1
Flop: :ad: :qs: :3c: ($2.85, 2 players)
nothingoth bets $0.90, Hero raises to $2.40 ...
Villain is 24/10, this is the only time in 30ish hands that I've seen him 3bet.
Preflop: I've got position, we're 135bb deep and since this is the only time I've seen him 3bet I think his range is really strong, along the lines of {JJ+, AK, AQs} if not tighter, so I think I can call and hope to hit a J here. I dunno if this is standard practice or not.
Flop: The flop comes and I don't hit a jack, so my first thought is that I'm folding to his cbet. However, he thinks for a little bit, and then fires out a bet of 90 cents into the almost $3 pot. I feel like with strong hands villain would bet faster here, and would bet much more. So it feels much more like villain has {KK, JJ}, doesn't know what to do, and is just firing out a small bet to try and end the pot right there. So I put in a small raise, with the idea being that if his range really is just those hands that are trying to pick up the pot and will fold, it doesn't matter too much how big a raise I make it, and if he sucks at betting for value or is betting to induce, then when he calls/raises I can still get away from the hand without having put too much bad money in there.
I realise everyone's first instincts is probably to just fold this flop once we've called pre, but I really think the timing and bet sizing show a lot of weakness.
Bumping for the 14th time since I just figured out how to get instant emails. :(
wat.
nou :(
What the poop is an instant email?
I play bad in 3bet bots.
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG RunGOODplz ($28.70)
CO Ivison1982 ($10.90)
BTN stevedavebob ($6.25)
SB Hero ($10.05)
BB Warcryxx ($12.10)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is SB :ts: :as:
2 folds, stevedavebob raises to $0.40, Hero raises to $1.60, 1 fold, stevedavebob calls $1.20
Flop: :3c: :9s: :th: ($3.30, 2 players)
Hero bets $2.10, stevedavebob goes all-in $4.65, $2.55 to Hero ($6.35)?
Villain is 24/24, no fold to 3bet stats.
Preflop: I 3bet, needing him to fold 1.6/2.15 = 74% of his range for this to be profitable. I expect him to continue to a 3bet with a strong range like {TT+, AQ+}. This is 4.7% of starting hands, meaning his opening range on the button needs to be at least 19% for this to be a profitable 3bet bluff, and his range is clearly that wide
Flop: I don't like this play, looking back. I cbet, but I expect it to fold out the parts of his range that I beat (AQ+) and keep in the parts that beat me (TT, JJ+) so it's a fairly dumb bet. However I don't know what I should do here- do I check with the intention of calling, or do I just say fair call, my 3bet bluff pre didn't work, I'm going to give up on this flop? In any event he goes all in, and I need 2.55/12.30 = 20% equity to make the call. If he's only doing this with TT+ I still have 20% equity, so this is a call. Which I guess is further reason why the cbet is bad, as it commits me to the pot.
c/c there is definitely fine since he's going to be firing pretty much his entire range vs you a large portion of the time. If he wants to try to check it down with AQ/AK, let him. If flop checks through, check the turn. You're not giving up on the pot on the flop unless he just open jams and even then I'm probably curious enough to call. I c/c flop, eval turn, more than likely c/c his eventual shove since he's short as balls.
In general though, I don't like 3bet bluffing stacks with less than 100bb stacks. I'm not 100% sure why, its just that most people that think even a little bit about the game buy in for full and reload. I much prefer calling PF and playing a little postflop poker vs a 60bb stack. It conceals the strength of our hand, and we can let him barrel himself off when we hit our A or T, we can get aggro with a FD, etc. Vs. a 100bb reg I like this as a 3bet, but vs what appears to be a fish I'm just flatting pre.
O ya, an instant email is I get an email whenever someone replies to a thread I'm subscribed to. That way I don't have to remember what ones I've posted in obv.
Not very productive lately, poker-wise. Getting back to balancing life, uni and poker again. Will get there, though.
Okay, I'm back, and with a new timetable that hopefully means I'll actually manage to study/play/review every day. Dropping my three hours of poker every day, and am instead going to do two on weekdays, and ten across the weekend. So I lose an hour a week, but with university I just wasn't managing to get in 3/day so whatever.
Basically just posting this hand to beat myself up for playing like a retard after running good. You know that mindset whereby you're like "He's probably gonna show me ace ten high here, 'cause I've been winning all my other pots."
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG _pUnkOuterAA ($10)
UTG+1 WmfMoon ($9.40)
CO m_p_h87 ($11.05)
BTN umoneymeok ($11.70)
SB MMV31 ($12.15)
BB Hero ($10)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is BB :th: :ts:
_pUnkOuterAA raises to $0.40, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.30
Flop: :2c: :4c: :3h: ($0.85, 2 players)
Hero checks, _pUnkOuterAA bets $0.65, Hero raises to $2.10, _pUnkOuterAA calls $1.45
Turn: :9h: ($5.05, 2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, _pUnkOuterAA calls $3.50
River: :8h: ($12.05, 2 players)
Hero goes all-in $4 ...
Villain is 15/13 over 60 hands with a 1/1 fold to 3bet.
Preflop: I think villain's range for opening UTG here is really tight, like {AJs+, AQo+, KQs, 66+}. I can't 3bet here for value, so I opt to just call. It's a bit annoying being OOP without the initiative, but folding here seems horrendously nitty.
Flop: Flop comes, and villain was at the time a cbet monkey, so I check, expecting him to bet with his entire range. For some reason I go for a raise after he bets, which I don't like. His calling range for that raise is, even if I'm being very optimistic: {66+, AJcc+, KQcc} against which we've only got 45% equity.
Turn: Now a 9 comes, meaning if I bet again then I'm likely to fold out 66-88, meaning I have even less equity against his continuing range, but for some reason I keep on bettin', now just against overpairs and maybe flush draws.
River: The river comes an undercard to my super-exciting overpair and so of course I shove, getting called by {99, TT+}.
Posting this both here and in the BC.
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG Elenka921 ($10)
UTG+1 PIPA1974 ($5.30)
CO SmokemGood ($9.15)
BTN JonOzkar ($55)
SB Hero ($10.55)
BB ckwab ($10)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is SB :jd: :ac:
3 folds, JonOzkar raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.35, 1 fold
Flop: :jh: :tc: :9c: ($0.90, 2 players)
Hero checks, JonOzkar bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60
Turn: :9h: ($2.10, 2 players)
Hero checks, JonOzkar bets $1.40, Hero calls $1.40
River: :3d: ($4.90, 2 players)
Hero checks, JonOzkar bets $3.20, $3.2 to Hero ($8.15)?
Villain is 21/20 over 81 hands, with 83% aggression and 100% cbet, BSA of 29%.
Preflop: Villain's range for raising on the button is: {22+, A2s+, A8o+, K7s+, K9o+, Q8s+, Q9o+, J8s+, JTo, 54s+, 75s+}. I call out of the small blind, planning on check/raise bluffing a bunch of flops- checking that somebody's cbet stat is high and then calling with the intent of bluff c/r'ing SB vs BU is something I do quite often, and hopefully isn't spew.
Flop: I hit TPTK on a very very wet board, and check it to him believing he's going to cbet his entire range. It might be okay to raise here since a bunch of draws will probably call, but I have the ace of clubs, and since I was expecting him to be bluffing at this flop a bunch, it seems silly to fold out his bluffs when I have showdown value and he might keep bluffing, so I just flat.
Turn: On the turn he bets again, he's fairly aggressive and so I think he's double barrelling here with straight draws and flush draws, and betting for value with nines, jacks, overpairs and sets. {A9, AJ, Axhh, K9, KJ, KQ, Kxhh, Kxcc, Q8s, Q9, QJ, Qxcc, Qxhh, Jx, 54cc+, 54hh+, 87s-T9s, 75cc+, 75hh+, 99-JJ, QQ+}
Against this range I've got 32% equity, and I'm getting 2.5:1 on my call (meaning I'd need 28% equity), so I guess this is a call.
River: When he bets this big on the river I tend to weight his range towards value, so nines, straights, sets, overpairs and QJ, KJ, AJ. Against that range I've got 20% equity and need again about 30%, so it's a fold on the river.
Alright, today's hand is me FPSing out my bumhole:
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG Bisu-_-v ($18.40)
UTG+1 rungood992 ($10)
CO xxxOLGAxxx ($11.40)
BTN JimmyBoy19 ($10.85)
SB qdance89 ($10.15)
BB Hero ($12.55)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is BB :as: :qh:
3 folds, JimmyBoy19 raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.40, JimmyBoy19 calls $1
Flop: :ts: :3h: :2d: ($2.85, 2 players)
Hero bets $1.70, JimmyBoy19 calls $1.70
Turn: :6c: ($6.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, JimmyBoy19 bets $2.70, Hero goes all-in $9.45 ...
Villain is 16/13, with a blind steal attempt of 43% and F3B of 68%, over 250ish hands.
Preflop: Villain raises with a huge range on the button, and because I know is F3B is too low, I 3bet AQo for value here, expecting to get called by: {22+, ATs+, AJo+, KQ, 76s+}
Flop: On the flop I fire out a cbet. I've been hammering this guy with 3bets so far this session because he calls a bunch of them, but then folds (or in one case tried to stack off) on the flop to a continuation bet. This is the first time I've seen him call a cbet in a 3bet pot, and so I don't think he has a strong hand like a set here, and am putting his range at: {44-99, JJ+, JT-T9s, AK}. I think JJ+ and sets are unlikely, as I think he'd try to get it in here, but I'm leaving in JJ+ to represent the chance he's got a decent hand.
Turn: The turn basically bricks, and I feel like Villain is sick of me and is going to keep calling if I fire here, so I check, expecting villain to check behind. Villain however tanks for a bit and then fires out a less than half pot bet. I don't see him betting with any pair hand below jacks, and both his sizing here on the turn and the lack of preflop/flop raise makes me weight this way towards a bluff with AK rather than a value bet. So I shove.
Okay as I write all this it sounds terribad. But it made a lot of sense to me when playing the hand, and I do still feel like the play was correct. If I need to be flamed to death to give up this view, then go for it I guess.
I'm more and more coming to realise that how I approach my day in the morning has a huge impact on the rest of it. If I decide to be lazy and talk shit on IRC for an hour in the morning instead of getting straight into doing the things that I need to do, this doesn't merely delay my day by one hour, instead it sets up a pattern of laziness and I have an unproductive day.
As a result of this, I'm going to try to get my morning routine down from now on.
(Alternate theory of course being rather than general laziness being caused my morning laziness, morning laziness is merely an example of general laziness, and the root cause is poor sleep or whatever, but I feel like there have been days where with coffee and a shower and getting right into productive work I've shaken off this general laziness where I otherwise wouldnt't've. Being productive -> sense of accomplishment -> motivation to be more productive)
read the suitedaces blog for some comment on this too - morning showers ftw!Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiMark
nah, never in the otago student body... felt funny wandering through campus wearing a suit a few days ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiMark
@Daven: I thought you were a professional degenerate, what call do you have to be wearing a suit :)
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG deniss123327 ($8.15)
UTG+1 tripsaholic ($9)
CO pvel899 ($9.85)
BTN kotmizer ($14.30)
SB Hero ($10)
BB CircuZcirkuz ($11.35)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is SB :qc: :ac:
deniss123327 calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, 1 fold, deniss123327 calls $0.40
Flop: :2d: :as: :ts: ($1.10, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, deniss123327 calls $0.80
Turn: :kc: ($2.70, 2 players)
Hero bets $1.90, deniss123327 calls $1.90
River: :kd: ($6.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, deniss123327 goes all-in $4.95, $2.45 to Hero ($4.3)?
Villain is 45/9 over 50 hands with a 33% fold to cbet.
Preflop: I imagine villain's limp/calling range is something like {A2+, K6s+, K8o+, Q8s+, Q9o+, J8s+, J9o+, 22+, 54s+, 75s+}
Flop: Villain's continuing against a cbet here with any piece of anything, so with a range of aces, tens, deuces, all pocket pairs, flush draws and gutshots.
Turn: I think my sizing here could have comfortably been bigger. Villain probably folds low missed pockets and deuces here, making his range: aces, tens, sets, JJ, QQ, flush draws, straights and gutshots (now + pair of kings).
River: Here I was pretty confused as to if I should just shove all in or not- I don't like checking as I think villain checks behind a bunch of stuff I could get value from, but I don't think I can ever fold if I bet small and villain shoves over, so yeah...
In any event, villain shoves, and because of bet sizing I only need like 15 or 16 percent equity to call. So if he's shoving sets, straights, kings and AJ+ then I have that. *shrug*
This hand is me trying to figure out how different lines could get me more value.
Villain (20maxim20) is 56/28 and tends to be very aggressive postflop at the sign of weakness, but folds if strength is shown.
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG volk585 ($2.95)
UTG+1 sexylhyn68 ($15)
CO Hero ($10)
BTN 20maxim20 ($4.90)
SB ZRX88 ($3.95)
BB DarkSid3r ($11.50)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is CO :ah: :kd:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 20maxim20 calls $0.40, 1 fold, DarkSid3r calls $0.30
Flop: :kc: :js: :jh: ($1.25, 3 players)
DarkSid3r checks, Hero checks, 20maxim20 bets $0.30, DarkSid3r calls $0.30, Hero calls $0.30
Turn: :as: ($2.15, 3 players)
DarkSid3r checks, Hero checks, 20maxim20 bets $0.50, DarkSid3r folds, Hero calls $0.50
River: :9c: ($3.15, 2 players)
Hero checks, 20maxim20 bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70
Preflop: Standard open, Villains have pretty similar preflop stats thus far, although I only have a very few hands on DarkSid3r, so I think both their ranges are approximately: {A2+, K4s+, K6o+, Q6s+, Q8o+, J8s+, J9o+, 54s+, 75s+, 22+}
Flop: Here I could make a cbet, but if I do so I think I'm only getting value from the kings in villains' ranges, whereas I'm almost certain that if I check 20maxim20 is going to bet his entire range, so I check.
Turn: This is the point in the hand I'm not sure about. If it was a heads up pot against 20maxim20, I'm sure I could value bet $1.50 here and get called by A8+, Jacks, sets and flushdraws, against which I have 54% equity, making the EV of the bet=$0.81
However when I check, I can expect him to bet say 50 cents (at the time I hoped it would be a little more, but whatever) with his entire range, against which I have 80% equity, so an EV of $0.40
Now the value bet looks better, but with the call I can get further value from air on the river, so the equation isn't over yet. Also, I was weary that DarkSid3r was still in the hand.
River: So, if I check this river, I'm expecting villain to bet his entire range for $0.8, I have 82% equity against this, so we can add a further $0.67 to the $0.4 of the turn, making the EV of my passive line = $1.07
If I bet the turn, the on the river if I assume that he calls with the entire range from the turn minus missed flush draws, I only have 45% equity so can't value bet here. And if I check after betting the turn then he probably bets both for value and with missed flush draws here, against which I've got 58% equity, so I guess we can add a further $0.4 to the $0.81 from the turn, meaning I should have bet the turn? Head asplode, is anybody able to follow this at all, I might just be going crazy. I think I'm gonna post this in the BC as well as in my op.
Okay, so it took me a bit longer than intended due in part to laziness but mostly getting used to having full-time university again, but this weekend I completed my 10k hands at 10NL.
I'm happy with the results, and I feel much much better about my game since I decided to drop and regrind five weeks ago. It's something that I'd recommend to anybody, and something that I'm very sure I will do numerous times over my poker lifetime.
So onwards and upwards back to 25NL.
Gogogogogogogogogo
Ran sick hot at 25NL yesterday. Sadly didn't get in all the volume I wanted to (1k/1.5k) due to hangover in the morning and friend's birthday bbq in the evening, but I shall try to make up that volume over the week.
I also seem to be collecting VPPs at a crazy rate- like almost double the rate at which I was collecting them at 25NL last year, so that's cool. Ship me dem stellar bonuses imo.
Villain is 18/13, and had donked another flop a few hands previous, to which I'd folded.
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG eltopo57 ($25.40)
UTG+1 djrion ($25.35)
CO Hero ($37.30)
BTN ferhat53 ($11.15)
SB lenni66 ($30.95)
BB AApa2 ($24.65)
Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is CO :qd: :jd:
2 folds, Hero raises to $1 ($36.30), 2 folds, AApa2 calls $0.75 ($23.65)
Flop: :kd: :tc: :7c: ($2.10, 2 players)
AApa2 bets $1.50 ($22.15), Hero calls $1.50 ($34.80)
Turn: :5d: ($5.10, 2 players)
AApa2 bets $4 ($18.15), Hero calls $4 ($30.80)
River: :9d: ($13.10, 2 players)
AApa2 bets $7 ($11.15), Hero goes all-in $30.80 ($0.00) ...
Preflop: I imagine he's calling out of the big blind with something like: {22+, AJ+, KJs+, KQo, 76s+}
Flop: I really don't know what villain's donk betting range here is, but given previous history I don't want to rule our bluffs nor value, but I think it's unlikely to be 7x or Tx, likewise not missed pocket pairs. So villain's range here is: {AJ+, KJs+, KQo, 98s, QJs, 77, TT, KK, AA}. Against that range I have like 32% equity, so I'm getting direct pot odds to call. There are maybe arguments to semibluff raise here, but I'd feel like I'm just folding out his bluffs and keeping in his value hands, so I like the call.
Turn: On the turn I pick up a flush draw to go with my OESD, and villain bets again, and quite big. Now I'm thinking it's much much more likely to be for value on his part, perhaps with the range: {AK, KJs+, KQo, 98cc, 98dd, QJcc, 77, TT, KK, AA} against which I've got 34% equity. Again I'm getting direct pot odds to call, and I think I probably have fairly reasonable implied odds, too.
River: On the river I make my flush, and villain bets again, with the range {AK, KJs+, KQo, 77, TT, KK, AA} I think it's pretty unlikely that villain folds some combos to a $11.15 shove that he calls a $7 minraise with, so I think shoving here is the best play. Even if there are combos for which that's the case, it has to represent more than 37% of his range (7 * 1.0 = 7, 11.15 * 0.63 = 7) before shoving becomes the worse play.
As requested, a hand in which I fucked up. Probably gonna post another one, too.
Villain is 24/18 with a 12% 3bet. Had 3bet me a few times now (both from the blinds and LP), and I'd folded.
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG damonius ($27.25)
UTG+1 Hero ($30.10)
CO Wojo130 ($27.05)
BTN shock2d ($25)
SB LookUpMyNutZ ($21)
BB R.Hide ($5.35)
Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1 :9s: :ts:
1 fold, Hero raises to $1, Wojo130 raises to $2.75, 3 folds, Hero raises to $5.75, Wojo130 calls $3
Flop: :8h: :tc: :5h: ($11.85, 2 players)
Hero bets $6.75, Wojo130 goes all-in $21.30, $14.55 to Hero ($17.6)?
Preflop: I don't think I like my 4bet bluff preflop. I don't have blockers against AA/KK, and we're HJ/CO rather than BU/CO. But at the time I was like, this kid's been 3betting me a ton, I have a hand that can flop something I can be willing to play aggressively, and most likely he's just gonna have to fold anyway. I think his range for flatting my 4bet in position is {TT+, AQs, AK} at the widest.
Flop: On the flop I hit my ten and pretty much nothing else. ie. pretty much nothing. For some reason I fire out a cbet, which has the amazing power to fold out the hands I beat and that might bluff, and keep me in against the hands that bring me pain. When he raises, it's folding time.
And another hand where, results aside, I don't like my play.
Villain is 25/19 over a decent sample, active-ish reg, floated me a couple of times, etc.
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG lenni66 ($31.10)
UTG+1 achillleas22 ($37.95)
CO ju4n c4rl0s ($24.95)
BTN x_POKEMONS_x ($25)
SB jgizow44 ($26.15)
BB Hero ($25)
Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BB :ad: :qh:
lenni66 calls $0.25, achillleas22 calls $0.25, ju4n c4rl0s calls $0.25, x_POKEMONS_x calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, lenni66 folds, achillleas22 calls $1.50, ju4n c4rl0s folds, x_POKEMONS_x calls $1.50
Flop: :2c: :3s: :qs: ($5.85, 3 players)
Hero bets $4.25, achillleas22 folds, x_POKEMONS_x calls $4.25
Turn: :th: ($14.35, 2 players)
Hero bets $9.50, x_POKEMONS_x goes all-in $19, $9.5 to Hero ($9.5)?
Preflop: Here I somehow managed to miscount the number of limpers, I'd prefer to make it $2 or even $2.25 out of the big blind. Villain limped behind pre, and now calls my raise in position, so I'm putting him on a range of {22-99, 54s-QJs, 75s-J9s}
Flop: Because of the many limpers and two callers situation preflop the pot on the flop is fairly large. I fire out a cbet, expecting villain to call his Queens, draws, sets, and probably all pocket pairs in the hopes that I'm just firing one barrel as a bluff. {22, 33, 44-99, 54s, QJs, 65ss-JTss, 75ss-J9ss}
Turn: Here I bet again, expecting to get called by {QJs, 22, 33, flush draws} and maybe not even flush draws, as he seems switched on enough to know that he's not getting implied odds to call with a flush draw. Even if he does, I only have 45% equity against that range, making it a bad value bet. Now he shoves, which is something he can more credibly do with flush draws, and sets, so I think it's a call once I've made the bad turn bet (I need less than 20% equity to call profitably)
Yuck to the 4-bet on that T9s hand. If you wanna defend with T9s vs a definite light 3 bettor, flatting is cool imo in this spot since we're getting a decent price and our hand can flop equity pretty easily so we can c/r a bunch of flops or even win a cbet when we flop a decent pair some of the time. If you must 4-bet at 25NL CO vs Hi Jack, I'd use blockers or at least hands that aren't as +EV to flat the 3-bet with. I just feel sick when we have to 4-bet fold our T9 suited, but then i have a strange infactuation with T9s.
Btw b/f it on this flop in the 4 bet pot is pretty bad. A. We are pretty much never getting 1 street of value from any hand in his range and B. All semi bluffs are shipping over us on this flop. I'd much rather just c/r the flop because he may not even bet JJ/QQ here if he's frightened of our range, consequently the range he does bet will probably be a stabby one consisiting of a decent amount of overcard combos which we don't otherwise get a bet from. It isn't ideal but as played I'm just not c/f or b/f this flop.
some comments on a week or so worth of hands...
TT - Your analysis is pretty good. pre-flop call is good, but if you're calling for set value then you don't want to get too attached post-flop - your call is saying "if i hit my set then you're gonna stack off cos your range is so strong", or maybe "TT is too good to fold here, but 3betting will polarise your range something awful". Which are you saying exactly? ok, flop c-r is meh vs this ubernit. He has a high c-b cos he always has a hand, nits do. Turn lead is worse.
AQo - preflop is fine, so is calling. Your cbet size is all good. Once he calls the cbet you can pretty much give up as "then folds on the flop..." This hand comes down to winning pots vs winning $$. Your turn bluff will work a lot (sizing tell etc) but i don't think it works enough if he really is sick of you.
i was thinking about getting a job, figured during the interview that i wasn't that keen - dunno if it showed. Keep on sifting...Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiMark
AQs, Pre-flop is standard. Ranges look about right. Flop cbet is good, and i like the sizing. His calling range has a bunch of draws in it, as well as weak aces. Turn and i think you should bet bigger vs his drawing range, especially the Ksxs hands. I consider overbet shoving here for value even. River i like a check-soulread cos you can't bet-fold this shallow.
AKo. Bet somewhere, anywhere. Maybe c-c flop is ok given your read? but... Anyway, c-shove river as played cos he's calling any ace ("i got two pair!")
JdQd flop play is interesting. Raise to buy a turn is an option, calling is fine, and so is folding ;) turn call is fine cos of back-door-ness. River plays itself.
9sTs what's villain's fold to 3b? open is kinda wide from ep, but fine i guess (FR nit here), 4b is meh, cbet is silly. Carroters spoke sense.
AdQh pre-flop good. Flop is too big. Turn is a gross spot. I probably check-decide.
Am now a proud member of DC Vids for a month (or is it a month + 7 days? I can't figure out how their system works, but whatever). Have watched the first of the Tommy Angelo series, and the rest should be downloading tonight. If anybody has any recommendations, fire them at me- the plan is to download as many videos as I can during the month and then watch them at my leisure.
Villain is 63/43 over 49 hands
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG Cha5e04 ($5.25)
UTG+1 scorpi89 ($13.70)
CO PKDanho ($6)
BTN Hero ($25)
SB grave ace ($28)
BB habsfanhl ($24.30)
Pre-Flop: ($0.60, 6 players) Hero is BTN :jh: :js:
[PKDanho posts $0.25]
1 fold, scorpi89 raises to $0.75, PKDanho calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.75, grave ace calls $0.65, 1 fold
Flop: :td: :9h: :5d: ($3.25, 4 players)
grave ace checks, scorpi89 bets $0.50, PKDanho calls $0.50, Hero raises to $3, grave ace calls $3, scorpi89 folds, PKDanho folds
Turn: :kh: ($10.25, 2 players)
grave ace checks, Hero checks
River: :5s: ($10.25, 2 players)
grave ace bets $4.75, $4.75 to Hero ($21.25)?
Preflop: Villains who got in the pot before me were relatively unknown (for one of them it was his first hand at the table), so I flatted pre. I think villain (in SB) is calling here with a massively wide range, along the lines of: {any two suited, 22+, A2o+, K6o+, Q6o+, J8o+, T8o+}
Flop: PFRer cbets a tiny amount, and gets called, I rate to be ahead of their ranges so put the raise in. Villain calls with a range of {dimaonds, tens, fives, nines, 76-87, QJ, AK, all pocker pairs}, against which I've got 63% equity.
Turn: Looking back, I think this should have been a bet. When Villain checks I discount kings from his range, and while he probably now folds pairs below tens, I still have a ton of equity against that range.
River: Villain now leads out for a bit under half pot. I struggle to put him on a K (while there are certainly villains that would check hoping I'm going to bet again, on the turn, I don't think this villain is one of them), so as far as value he's really just repping fives, and I think he does this with missed flushdraws a bunch. That, and I only need 25% equity for it to be profitable, make this a fairly easy call.
This hand's a bit weird 'cause I misread the pot size on the flop, and so that changed some things, but I'll post it anyway:
Villain is 24/4 with a 25% fold to cbet.
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG TitanRu ($24.90)
CO G7/SEVEN ($27.30)
BTN Hero ($33.75)
SB Haloth2 ($25.45)
BB zhufacai ($36.45)
Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is BTN :as: :td:
TitanRu calls $0.25, G7/SEVEN calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, TitanRu calls $1.25, G7/SEVEN folds
Flop: :th: :2s: :9h: ($3.60, 2 players)
TitanRu checks, Hero bets $2, TitanRu calls $2
Turn: :7d: ($7.60, 2 players)
TitanRu checks, Hero bets $4.50, TitanRu calls $4.50
River: :js: ($16.60, 2 players)
TitanRu checks, Hero checks
Preflop: Standard button raise. I think villain's limp/calling range is: {A6s+, A8o+, K8s+, K9o+, Q9s+, QTo+, JT, 22+}
Flop: Villain doesn't fold to cbets often, seems to call along if he has any piece, be it a set or a gutterball. As such I thought I'd bet big here, so went for $2 into $2.60. Only problem being, the pot was $3.60, not $2.60. Whoops. That mistake doesn't affect villain's calling range too much, which is: {22+, A9-AT, A7hh-A8hh, AJhh+, K8s+, K9o+, Q9s+, QTo+, JT} against which I've got 64% equity.
Turn: Seven of diamonds, when I bet again here I expect him to gold his missed pocket pairs a bunch. I sized the bet to be just a bit over half pot 'cause I thought it might look scary of I went from a small bet on the flop to a massive bet on the turn. Villain's continuing range is: {22, 77+, 9-AT, A7hh-A8hh, AJhh+, K8s+, K9o+, Q9s+, QTo+, JT} against which I've still got like 63% equity.
River: River's a really nasty card for me. A whole bunch of his draws are now straights, or now pairs that beat my T. While I can discount straights a bit since he doesn't bet, I still think he has way too many J's in his range for me to be able to profitably bet/fold here.
It's so hard to escape the feeling of happiness when you win money, but it's such a treacherous feeling.
I had a pretty big "Aha" moment today. It's not revolutionary, per se, and it's a moment that I've had a couple of times in the past, but given how easy it seems to be to forget it, I've decided to note it down here, and then also put it in my sig, to make it less likely that I forget it again in the future.
UTG raises to 4bb, I have AA in the HJ and 3bet to 12bb. The SB cold 4bets to 28bb, and UTG tanks. I find myself making snap decisions on my other tables, and focussing on the one where I have AA, hoping, really hoping, that UTG shoves over.
That's when I had my "Aha" moment, as I realised how ridiculous that kind of thinking is. The reason that it's so pointless and counter-productive is threefold.
1. My hoping in no way affects the outcome. That is, I'm expending energy and thought, but since I'm not influencing what actually happens at all, it's a complete waste.
2. I'm setting myself up to be content when what I'm hoping for happens, and disappointed when it doesn't. This seems like a negative sum situation.
3. Thirdly, and possibly just a rehash of 1 and 2 above, but nevertheless most importantly in my eyes, is the concept that hoping for something like this to happen is as ridiculous as hoping for your KK to hold against AK aipf; a certain amount of the time what you're hoping for will come to pass, and a certain amount of time it won't- It's simply a numbers game, and the probabilities are going to catch up with you sooner or later. There's no avoiding that, and so wishing for this particular outcome to be one of the outcomes that's going to happen 10% of the time - or wishing for it to be one of the 90% of outcomes - is nonsensical.
I haven't expressed this as clearly as I would like, but hopefully reading over this and thinking about it will serve as enough of a reminder in times ahead to continue to understand the underlying ideas. Not being results-oriented is not simply a matter of not caring about what happened, but also a matter of not caring about what will happen.
Great post kiwi. You explained it just fine imo, at least I understood it lol and I completely agree with what you said. It makes complete sense, but its not something I've ever really thought about. Wasting energy and mental effort on something that I have ZERO say in the outcome of is just so retarded. My time could be better spent thinking about whether or not I'll have pizza or spaghetti for dinner tonight, or if my dog just farted, etc.
Great, great post and I recommend you cross post it to the BC.
Edit: Unless of course you want to keep teh nubs in teh dark. :dance:
i've been finding myself analysing this kind of psychology lately as well. basically it's the same deal checking your tracking software for how you're doing every 100 hands (i refuse to allow myself to look even though it's tempting sometimes) - you're becoming results oriented and attaching emotion to something well beyond your control.Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiMark
nice post.
you've conned me into reading your whole blog from page one now after being linked here from your sig somewhere in the BC
@dranger: Thanks for the kind words! I feel kinda meh cross-posting this in the BC, it'd make me feel kinda up myself, or something, if that makes sense?
@rpm: Cool, thanks. Sorry I missed you on IRC last night, I'd already gone to sleep and saw your message when I woke up. Also sorry that I tricked you into reading this whole blog- it's pretty much entirely just hand analysis apart from the above post, I think! ;)
I feel like I missed a bunch of value yesterday. Gonna have to try and figure out some way to work on improving on that.
UTG was 25/20 with a 78% fold to 3bet, BTN was 15/15 but with a 13% 3bet preflop
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($26.40)
CO ($7.20)
BTN ($26)
Hero ($27.45)
BB ($47.40)
Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is SB :qs: :qd:
UTG raises to $0.75, 1 fold, BTN raises to $2.75, Hero calls $2.65, 1 fold, UTG calls $2
Flop: :4d: :8c: :tc: ($8.50, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, BTN checks
Turn: :5h: ($8.50, 3 players)
Hero bets $5, UTG calls $5, BTN folds
River: :2d: ($18.50, 2 players)
Hero ($19.7)?
Preflop: I'm pretty lost here. At the table I heard a booming voice telling me not to flat 3bets OOP, but I feel like if I 4bet I'm basically putting myself up against {KK+, AK}. I think button's range for 3betting here is: {88+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs}. I think it's gotta be a tighter range than 13% when he's 3betting an UTG open, but I really don't know what somebody's range for that looks like, so the above could be way off.
I call, as does UTG, I think with the range: {77-QQ, AQs+, AKo}.
Flop: Here I check, expecting BTN to cbet, and I'm intending on calling it. However it checks through. I'm now less inclined to put overpairs and sets in his range, as the board's not exactly dry against two players.
Turn: Here I bet out, expecting to get called by UTG's {88, 99, TT, AQcc+} - I'm chucking 99 in there 'cause since nobody bet the flop he might consider it good for one street. and by BTN's {99, AJcc+, KQcc}. I've got like 48% equity against the two of them, so it's a fine value bet.
River: UTG calls my turn bet, BTN folds, and river bricks. If I value bet I think I'm getting called by sets, jacks and queens, which I tie with (6 combos of JJ, 3 combos each of TT, 88). However if I check then he probably fires his missed clubs, queens, jacks and sets, so I think check/call is the winner here.
I think he very rarely has a set taking this passive of a line on this board. Unless you've seen him slowplay in awful situations before, I'd be inclined to weight his range quite heavily towards 99 + JJ.
Given that there are 2 combos of flush draws in his range and 12 combos of 99-JJ, I'd always want to be betting this river for value because where I think you're mistaken is in assuming he'll value bet JJ on the end here. Most people wont imo having taken this line, thinish value is likely not something that crosses his mind and I'd not be surpised to see him jus snap check back JJ.
You're liking c/c because you think 2 extra combos might bluff AcKc and AcQc. There's 6 combos of 99 here that will probably call a gayish $7.50 bet but check back 100% of the time. There's 6 combos of JJ that will defo call this bet and check back like 70% of the time (I'd say this is a fair assumption.) Also, this guy's 22/20 he's probably opening JTs/T9s and may well call a 3-bet with these to mine vs BU, especially after you've overcalled and his price is better. These weak top pairs will snap $7.50 and check back for sure if you go for a c/c.
So yeah I'd reconsider your river line imo. I think the rest of the hand is good.
Cool, that makes sense. Thanks :)
@rpm: Cool, thanks. Sorry I missed you on IRC last night, I'd already gone to sleep and saw your message when I woke up. Also sorry that I tricked you into reading this whole blog- it's pretty much entirely just hand analysis apart from the above post, I think! :wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiMark
found some more wisdom already. i'm slowly coming to realise that every time i put something off/shun it because it's diffficult or i don't feel like it/sleep in for 3 hours because i'm comfortable in bed or whatever, i'm making myself more likely to make such lazy decisions in the future. it becomes the norm. like a self-stoking cycle. getting out of bed, having a shower and doing poker study for an hour = the nuts.
Nice to see there's somebody that struggles with the same kinda stuff I do, rpm :)
No hand review for today, nothing that I'm unclear on what I should've done (sounds arrogant, but is really just a result of getting like 200 hands in yesterday), so will just do other study for longer. Three out of of my four biggest losing hands were 4bet bluffs that I should not have made. The other was a semi-bluff shove on the turn when I had odds to call and next to zero fold equity. Something to work on, it seems.
Haven't played the last three days, had some uni stuff to do, etc. etc.
Have however been studying, and have also been thinking about my game.
I believe this to be something that a bunch of aspiring players don't do enough (to be fair, it's quite difficult): step back and ask themselves what areas they need to focus on in their game, what they need to be doing to improve on them. It's very easy to look for new betting plays (as a random example, identify good spots to 3-bet bluff) and read a whole raft of material on things that you've never before heard of, gathering a bunch of new concepts and ideas, and familiarising yourself with them, but I don't think this is the only thing that should be done.
The above is great, but I think what is hugely beneficial is trying to examine, based on what you already know, the weaknesses in your own game, and the things you're doing wrong. This is obviously hugely personal, and can be something along the lines of "there are a bunch of spots on the turn that I don't know what I should be doing, and I just make arbitrary plays" or entirely different, like, "lately I've been getting frustrated and often making plays that I know to be incorrect, but I keep doing it before I catch myself". I would be surprised if there wasn't a ton of stuff in everybody's game that they could work on without going outside of what they already know.
I would also argue that considering and identifying these sorts of problems is way harder than studying about new things. About three days ago I decided to sit down for an hour and come up with some things for me to work on before playing my next session, and it's taken me, as I say, about three days. I'm just guessing, but the reason this is hard is quite probably ego- we're confronted with admitting that there are things within our control that we're doing poorly, and with the prospect of having to put in hard work to fix that. In poker especially, it's very easy in this kind of situation to just say, "fuck it," and continue playing, because in the near future you are going to have sessions in which you run good, at which point you can go back to telling yourself that you are playing well, and that clearly your problems must stem from a lack of knowledge about the game, not a lack of putting the effort in to apply the knowledge you've already gained. When, of course, I'm arguing that exactly the opposite is true.
So a lot of my thinking over the last three days has just been acknowledging the above, which I think is a helpful step in and of itself and why I'm writing it down here, and it's also come up with a few more specific things which I would like to focus on over my mid-semester break (this week) and beyond.
1. Value bet larger. I feel like I'm missing a bunch of value by telling myself "make it a dollar or two smaller so he'll call," when really villain doesn't care, and the only thing that this kind of bet-sizing affects is my bottom line, and not in a good way.
2. Focus on this hand as being in the present, rather than letting results from hands past or results from the future of this hand influence my judgement. However, also make sure the decisions I'm making are the most EV. When I get into the mindset of being less results-oriented, I sometimes also seem to slip into making plays which are less than optimal because I'm not worried about losing the dollars, as ridiculous as that sounds.
There're some other small things, but the above is mainly what I've brought to the forefront. I'm now on mid-semester break, so after tomorrow expect a ton of volume from me, and hands to review, hopefully both here and in the BC.
The plan was to use this mid-semester break to put in heaps of poker volume, but I'm bailing on that. Going to work on things which will help me with poker but also more generally in life, instead.
1. Exercise. ( See http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...op-179111.html )
2. Meditation. Excited about getting into this.
3. Catching up on maths work for uni that I've fallen behind on.
4. Actually having a bit of a holiday.
So I'll just be putting in my standard amount of poker volume and study. I'm also, from now on, going to be playing both 10NL and 25NL, depending on how I'm feeling and what else is going on. I seem to have some mental issues with moving up, and I think this will help.
So, long story short I decided to put poker on the back-burner for a bit, but somehow that translated into playing the same amount of hours and dropping all study. I'm not happy with that, so I'm back trying to bring my study:play ratio up to 1:1, even if it comes at the cost of volume. First step along that path is bringing back my daily hand review, posting at least one hand in here per day and if it's interesting then posting it in the BC as well.
Villain is 16/12, I have one note on him:
checks AK oop on KhJc3c flop, bets 2/3 pot on 9c turn (w/ Ac), checks Qd river.
$0.05/$0.10 Ante $0.02 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($15.44)
CO ($16.11)
Hero ($27.26)
SB ($11.99)
BB ($10.22)
Pre-Flop: ($0.25, 5 players) Hero is BTN :js: :ac:
UTG raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30, 2 folds
Flop: :9d: :7h: :as: ($0.85, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
Turn: :5s: ($0.85, 2 players)
UTG bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75
River: :7s: ($2.35, 2 players)
UTG bets $2, $2 to Hero ($26.21)?
Preflop: Villain has 30% ATS, so I think he's positionally aware and his UTG raising range is really tight, probably something like {55+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs}, so I'm not sure if I can really profitably call here, even with position, would be interested to hear people's views.
Flop: Villain checks. I have seen him cbet before, once, and given my note on him I'm tending to think his cbets are primarily bluffs. The only thing in his range that's air is KQs, so I think his range here is something like {55+, AQo+, AJs+}, and I don't think he'd call his missed mid-pocket pairs, so I check behind.
Turn: Just like in my note, he leads out here on the turn, and I think it's solely for value. I now think his range is {55, 77, 99, KK, AJs+, AQo+} I think once the flop's checked through it's not unreasonable for him to bet out JJ-KK, but given how cautious he was in my note, I'm only putting KK there, to give those hands less weight. I have 39% equity, need about 32%, so I can profitably call.
River: Here he bets out pot again. He doesn't have any flushes in his range (maybe one combo of KsQs, but I don't think he bets turn with that), and given how cautious he was in the previous hand it seems unlikely he's betting anything less than a flush so largely here, which leaves us with bluffs and boats. There's nothing in his range he can be bluffing with, so I have to believe his range for betting here is like {55,77,99,AA}, making this an easy fold.
was villain pfr in the hand you got notes from?
is this a FR table playing short-handed?
pre-flop and it's 5-handed so his range is wider than you might imagine. Pre-flop 3b=fold >> calling with a dominated hand.
flop is either a bet or you gotta raise turn as played - you know he likes betting turned flush draws etc. Reason for flop bet is that calling Ax for A value is a waste of time if you're scared of stronger aces when an ace flops.
river is a fold, but earlier streets are where the money is/was.
Cool, thanks for the advice daven.
No hand for review today as I only played 150ish hands yesterday and nothing interesting came up, just a couple of coolers. Using my study-time to get familiar with PT3 (until recently I'd been using Poker Copilot) and mess with the filters and see what it shows me. If anybody has any leak-spotting techniques, feel free to let me know ;)
Hey kiwi!
Here's a good link with a bunch of other good links at the bottom of the post. daven's link is one of them.
Poker Software A guide to PokerTracker and PAHud. - boards.ie
Probably the single biggest thing holding me back at poker is my ego. When I do these hand analyses I tend to ignore the spots where I'm like "Oh jesus, I butchered that" or "I actually have no idea about that whatsoever" and go instead for the ones that I know I'm gonna be able to easily assign a range, etc. Obviously this is retarded, so from now on I shall aim to tackle the spots that I have no idea about, rather than ignore them, even if that means that my own analysis will be somewhat lacking and I'll need more help.
There aren't necessarily great examples of that every session, but whatever, I'll do my best to find spots where I didn't know what was going on, or I feel I messed up. This one I'm gonna post in the BC, too, to kick things off.
Villain is 50/17 over six hands, virtually unknown.
€0.05/€0.10 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG (€5.20)
CO (€11.58)
BTN (€8.34)
SB (€10)
Hero (€11.39)
Pre-Flop: (€0.15, 5 players) Hero is BB :qc: :ac:
UTG raises to €0.40, 3 folds, Hero raises to €1.60, UTG calls €1.20
Flop: :5s: :5c: :kh: (€3.25, 2 players)
Hero bets €1.10, UTG goes all-in €3.60, €2.5 to Hero (€8.69)?
Preflop: Here for instance I don't know if I should just flat preflop or 3bet, against a virtual unknown. What I do know about him (it's 10NL, he has a halfstack, he's 50/17 thus far) suggest he's fishy and so I think I can probably 3bet AQs for value here, expecting villain to continue with a range like {TT+, ATs+, AJo+, KJs+, KQo, QJs} against which I have a bit over 50% equity. He's probably shoving {KK+, AK} in which case I can just fold.
Flop: Cbetting in 3bet pots really confuses me, and looking back I don't think I like my cbet here. I doubt I'm folding out TT-QQ or any King, so it can't really be a profitable cbet bluff. Even with my 1/3 pot cbet, once he shoves over I need to be good just a bit more than 20% of the time so it's not gonna be easy for me to fold here.
In other news, these days I'm playing three tables of euro 10NL on stars, back to the 100bb tables after my brief foray into the deep+ante tables.
pre is fine, flop is either overbet shove as cbet, or check-fold.
i don't get itQuote:
Originally Posted by kmind
You don't have to 3bet nearly as large as you did imo. You could have made it 1.1, saved .5 on your bet, and still easily get stacks in over streets if a Q, A or you flop a combo draw or w/e. I don't mind your sizing if you're open jamming flop when any of the above hits as well, but I just think the first way is better since you have to fold to his 4bet jam, so I guess you a save a little bit when that happens, and theres a better chance he calls with like QT, QJ, Ax, etc.
I think you can call this as played. He's jamming any PP, KT-KQ, he doesn't have any 5x unless its like 56s or something, his chance of having AK is pretty small, he'll probably jam A8-AJ, and just some other random air since he might think you're bluffing.
Curious to see what your thought process is on the large c-bet. If you're willing to bet/call here when u 3bet big like that and cbet an inducing size on a super dry flop and you're open jamming an A, Q, combo draw flop I think it's fine. If you're going to try to bet/fold like you do here, just 3bet smaller to make it a smaller c-bet, and easier to fold when shoved on.
Will help him with his stat looking. It's HEM but I mean I'm sure it's the same stats. Doesn't help him create filters really but still helps him look at stuff.Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
Get it now?
i get it now, i shoulda just scrolled up!Quote:
Originally Posted by kmind
Cheers for the stats thread kmind, will check it out.
I'm playing mainly 10NL, but if I'm feeling focussed or the tables are looking especially good, I play two tables of 25NL. Such was the case this weekend, where this hand happened. I think from now on if I post the hand in the BC I'm just gonna link to the thread in here, rather than posting the whole hand in here as well. Seems tidier. So:
25NL - QQ BvB - Poker Forums
Not much poker played today. However, my flatmate's xbox 360 broke (red ring of death) so I bought it off him for cheap and fixed it, so I now have a mostly working (the fans go pretty hard, not sure how long it'll last) xbox! Winner.
Went through my PT3 database today, making some base preflop opening ranges based on what's been profitable and what hasn't. Looking a lot tighter than what I'm currently playing! Espeeeeeeecially in early position, like jesus.
ahh but if you were only opening the hands that were profitable, would they still be profitable? OoOoOooOoOHhHHhH scary thought eh. shania fucks with my head
@rpm: taken on board :)
[14:28] <yaawn> some hands should cost u money...
[14:28] <yaawn> like if some hands aren't costing u money
[14:28] <kiwiMark> At micros too?
[14:28] <yaawn> ur doing it wrong
[14:28] <yaawn> nah micros u can be nitty
[14:28] <kiwiMark> Yeah
[14:28] <yaawn> but it's better to learn to play those hands
[14:28] <yaawn> don't cut em out completely