Is douchery like French for butcher or baker or something?
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Is douchery like French for butcher or baker or something?
Well, at least it hasn't taken me as long this match to spot the first Wolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
My analysis of JKDS lines...
Line 1: Obv wolfy... leads to early in the match for JKDS (he did hint he might do this in a separate thread, but it's too convenient. Plus, the words "educated" are forced.
Line 2: No read
Line 3: Slightly Village-esque if you don't look at it from the perspective of a wolf. Second or third name-drop in that line is a Wolf as well (either Keith or Gator)
Line 4: Wolfy feeler for potential future use
Lynch JKDS
I'm not as big on a baud-wolf scenario as you are. I think the play for him as a Wolf this time around would be to not contribute as much early-on as he has in the past. Of course, that's a pretty basic line of thought and there's the fact the baud-wolf threw me for a loop big-time last match.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
I have no reads for Villagers at the moment.
Daditdrew is sooooooo disappointed.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Building tilt lynch equity.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
lets make this carnage work for us as villagers .In the list of players in the OP, everyone has to say that they are going to hotshot the guy below then in the list, or everyone does the guy above them etc. this will give us two confirmed villagers unless we get unlucky and hotshot shoots the other hotshot. It also means we know one of the wolves because the wolf hotshot is forced to shoot as well. anyone not taking part can be assumed to be the wolf hotshot.
We could get lucky and the wolf hotshot is forced to shoot another wolf . Shooting a wolf is no villager certainty since it is a forced shot. Wolves have a dilemma , if they eat the hotshots , they identify one of their number since he is the guy left when the hotshots are dead. The vig can avoid shooting the hotshots so more likely to hit a wolf.
This strategy is implementing a pseudo seer outing with 2 villagers and a wolf.It also prevents a wolf or wolf hotshot from echoing a villagers hotshot and stops a wolf hotshot from shooting in the endgame for a win.
I don't care who gets shot in the list as long as everyone is targetted by 1 person and we get the pseudo confirmed villagers/wolf hotshot by knowing who shot who.
Best post of the game so far, drew has seemed pretty switched on so far despite pushing for a random d1 lynch. I don't want to lynch him today.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Despite wuf saying that soulreads never win games, he secretly wants to be a soulreader.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
This reads very odd to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
1. I don't get what this means.
3. Why are you looking at it from a wolf's perspective?
4. Seems like a reasonable question from JKDS.
Wolf can't echo hotshot, because no villager hotshot would ever echo hotshot, why on earth would they.
But that aside I can see value in the theory.
^ at Keith obv.
hoopys reaction above is weird . Why no comment on my suggestion?Look at the timing ,he had 20 minutes reading and posting , so why no reaction? this stinks of needing to confer with the other wolves . rong comes back with a comment about my suggestion , i have hoopy wolf and rong villager as a result.if hoopy is a wolf , i'm leaning bid , jkds and ong as his team mates .
rescind bnid lynch hoopy
Wuf's a what?
Oh yeah, that's right. Thanks Wuf.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
See what I did there?
lolQuote:
Originally Posted by GatorJH
This whole game is just one big laugh riot
Ong would you say that house prices in Bell End are... on the rise?
Why is it on the floor?Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Did you realise that both the gifs I pulled were from the movie 'Hot Shots'?Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
I should have said it about keybored, at least he gets movie references
This could make or break the gameQuote:
Originally Posted by Keith
If all three shots hit villagers it's 6-4, a mislynch + nom (or errant vig shot) and it's over before d2. If we hit at least one wolf we're in better shape though, but we need to hit at least two to improve our equity:
Random odds of lynching a wolf now = 4 in 13, 30.7%
3 hotshots fire, 1 wolf + 2 Vil die. it's now 7-3
Wolf in hotshots = 1 in 3, 33%
Wolves in remainder = 2 in 7, 28%
So if we only hit one wolf we're no better off than pre shooting and almost better off lynching from one of the three hotshots at this point.
Also this simply isn't as fun as soulreading.
http://esswhydeeblog.files.wordpress...homerswear.gifQuote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
wuf is a villager, bid is super villager, gator is leaning villager, keith is prob villager, somebody give me a gun unless I already have one
And I very nearly almost certainly do or do not have one already
Keith is back to srs keith. He used the word 'lol' once but that's about it
What's tilt lynch equity?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
Just skimmed through some things and these two thoughts jumped out at me.
JKDS is a villager and holy shit Wuf finally rolled wolf (and is terrible at it, btw).
Smaller reads include keith being villager, Luco being villager (but for different reasons), Hoopy being meh, and I still reserve the right to weigh in on Baud but am leaning wolf.
No solid reads on others right now.
why 3 /13 . there's four wolves and for the village hotshots its 4/12 since they aren't shooting themselves ( ok i guess you allowed for bid)Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
Lol Keith
RESCIND KEITH
Last game I bolded wolf-keith, giving him a juicy target to feed on. Tried same again and village-keith ignored me.
Gabe = ONE POST! Get in da game dude. At least throw out a bold so we can chew on something.
Wuf = Trying to confuse like last game but not quite achieving same. Feels special.
BID = Weird serious. Feels legit tho.
JKDS = Village mostly, solid hunting. But that math pov slip has me worried.
Dhubs = Same/Same dhubs.
Hoopy = Same/Same hoopsy.
Luco = Also posting too much but did a bit of hunting recently. Neutral.
Ong = Too off handed. Feels fake. Neutral for now but tilting W.
Baud = Too cocky in his spew. Def special or wolf.
Rong = Posting way too much and not hunting. Wolf lean so far.
Gator = Too gator not to be a wolf.
LYNCH GATOR
Tonight there will be LYNCH, KILL, VIG deaths (assuming no saves).
A mis-lynch + mis-vig would put d2 at 6v4.
A snap Wolf-Hotshot could then make it 5v4.
Vill-Hotshots holding off till tomorrow makes odds better for them.
But V-HS's could be victims b4 tomorrow.
Village Hotshots should shoot today, yah?
Wouldn't that help both Voting and Vig-ing?
i agree that jkds and baudib have made fishy posts so id kill them
What are they? Baudib spews so I have a hard time pulling anything wolfy from him other than that and while I will go back and review JKDS again my first pass didn't see anything wolfy.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
gator see#172
I am playing a game where the bodyguard was very helpful at end game. The person who had it had claimed he was bodyguard, but wan't lock confirmed yet there were two other players who were. He flipped good and now we are at end game with two good villagers and don't have to worry about vetting him.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
I may have to read this 5 times to understand the strategy behind the actions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith
Ahhhhh, a derp catch. That's why you guys who really get the mechanics of these games are better than me at finding wolves.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith
With that said I have made those mistakes as a villager too.
FWIW, other than that his posts don't scream wolf to me anywhere near as much as wuf and Hoopy's do.
I think Hoopy would be a better wolf than wuf so for now I will rescind and vote to lynch hoopy.
Getting lynched because people are mad at you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
Ohhh nice find, JKDS might be the wolf hotshot?Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith
rescind Gator
lynch JKDS
You may be a few hours late on the idea of killing people at random, but your rando killing is at least unique.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith
Sooooo.... Looks as though the turn tables.
I didn't comment because I was thinking about it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith
Best case is that the village hotshots both hit wolves and the wolf hotshot also has to shoot one of his buddies. 1/3 hotshots is the last wolf. Village basically wins at 9-1. Super super super unlikely.
Worst case all 3 hotshots kill villagers and we know 1/3 is a wolf. 6-4 going into night 1. More likely than the above.
Then you have every case in the middle, way too much analysis to do right now.
Honestly seems to fit the theme of this game.
actually , i think one of he hotshots should take out JKDS now and then we can use that as the seed number for how many above or below the village then shoot.then its totally random and the wolves can't influence it. even if wolf hotshot shoots JKDS he doesn't know who the voillage hotshots are and how safe the rest of the wolf team is.
I guess a wolf could suggest keith's idea if the player list is setup perfect for the wolves, but that's already very unlikely. keith's a solid villager in my eyes.
It's a great strat idea if keith is a wolf and the rando shootings kill only villagers.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
If both village Hotshots miss today we're at 7-4, then even if the bodyguard blocks the wolf kill we're at 6-4 anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
Suppose the vig fires and misses, wolves win with the hotshot kill next day.
I'm leaning towards 1 hotshot firing today then reevaluating tomorrow.
lol, classic bidQuote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Hoopy's math may be correct but I'm going to give him a wolf lean for going against keiths rando shooting strat
Although, if Hoopy's math is correct, and keith agrees, then I may change my mind.
I do not have a hard-on for keith. It's just that in Keith I trust. Most of the time. Not last game.
hoopy trending up the villager ladder, BID trending down.
For now - rescind
You mom trending down.
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
<<< V O T E ~ C O U N T >>>
\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/
player (# votes) - who's voting for them {post count}
JKDS (3) - dhubs {3}, hoopy {17}, wuf {31}
baudib (2) - BID {20}, rong {14}
hoopy (2) - JKDS {11}, keith {11}
BID (1) - baudib {29}
gator (1) - key {4}
rong (1) - ong {15}
novote (2) - gabe {2}, gator {13}, Luco {17}
Day 1 ends in ~12 hours
***
If you DO NOT want to see post counts in the future, send me a PM. I will take all non-PM's to mean you love the shit out of it and want more more more. (I made a pie chart, too. You Jelly?)
So, one of several things will happen with the wolf hot shot if we follow Keith's plan.
1. Wolf will be aiming at a villager, in which case either:
- 1a. Wolf does so and we are none the wiser to his role.
- 1b. Wolf shoots a strong villager instead, we know his role and are very suspicious about his initial target.
2. Wolf is aiming at fellow wolf. In which case either:
- 2a. Wolf shoots buddy and claims to be a villager and we are none the wiser about his role, but we are a wolf down.
- 2b. Wolf just takes out a strong villager instead and we know his role, and are very suspicious about his initial target.
So it presents a potential problem, looking at the list in op:
BankItDrew
baudib
dhubermex
gabe
GatorJH
Hoopy
JKDS
Keith
keybored
Luco
ongbonga
rong
wufwuggy
Let's say Duubermex is a wolf and Gabe is a villager and we are shooting down the list.
If Dhub just says fuck it and takes out a gator/jkds type player, we will end up assuming Gabe was a fellow wolf and his one shot potentially takes out two of our strongest villagers.
Or let's say dhub and Gabe are both wolves, same thing applies and Gabe uses the above explanation to weasel his way out of a lynch. So the theory isn't as strong as I initially thought.
And as an FYI I only used Dhub and Gabe as Gabe was the first super strong player in the list. (No offence BID/Baud/Dhubs)
doobs wolfing
A Post Count Pie Chart? Mmmmm...loves me some PCPCQuote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
As long as I'm not Mr Pink!!
Mods, take note. There's a new Mod in town!Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
You're mom bending down.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
DAMNIT - Your, not you're
Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
Each soul reader has a 3/13 chance of being a vigilante/hotshot. Therefore, each has a 3/13 chance of using their skills to kill a wolf. You allege this is a wolf slip, but I dont see how a wolf gets to 3/13.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith
how does keith's plan confirm villagers?
mmm why would you not want to do vote counts?
It's okay. I wrote 'you'.Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorJH
hearty lols when i saw this. it's too true. well, i think it's about how my mind wouldnt go in that direction. as wolf id be looking for all the ways we could lose. i love that you have this read on me, because it shows some understanding of my natureQuote:
Originally Posted by rong
I don't get keith's plan. So we all "shoot" whoever is below or above us. Three of us are hotshots, and those three will kill their target. How do we get confirmed villagers out of this? Assuming all three hotshots survive the massacre, we have a 66% certainty that each individual hotshot is a villager, 33% wolf. And that's worth risking blindly shooting two villagers for and potentially killing the vig and bodyguard, who both have claimable roles? No it's not.
It's a bad plan and keith knows it. Keith is wolfing here.
never seen itQuote:
Originally Posted by Luco
I think he was trying to manipulate your comments to make it look like you 3/13 is a wolf pov slip, because a wolf sees three other wolves. It's classic keith wolfing. He's twisting your words to make you look wolfy.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
adding gator to my baddy list
baud bid jkds hoops gator
i have no clue what he thinks he's doing. he called me his wolf read but didnt bold me. and he said twice in a short span that he thinks id be a shitty wolf. i just dont believe he would think that, but i ALSO dont think he would take that line as a wolf. however, if anybody is cognizant of what he should do as a wolf, it's gator. he could very well know that the way to play me as a wolf is for him to get on my bad side, since the last time we tangled, it was him getting on my good side that got him in trouble
that's all pretty meta though
1) Random is antifun.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith
2) Our non hotshots each have a 25% shot of dying this way. Our hotshots have a 16% shot of dying. The probability of at least one dying is 1- 75%*75%*84%*84% = 60%.
3) Mass claiming day 2 or 3 is far better than half claiming on day 1.
4) If you really want to do it, its far better on day 2 than now.
Reserving judgment on this Keith plan.
It definitely doesn't sound fun.
I do think that keith might be onto something with his strat, although I'm not convinced it is +EV for the village.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
The point about rando not being fun is actually the best reason not to do it imo
This is not me being a wolf and hoping not to do it, this is me thinking that if we do it rando - we're simply exploiting a role hole made by the mod. This will probably discourage experimentation in the future.
This is me fence-sitting tho - experimentation is what were doing, no matter what holes are found. That's all part of the science.
Good rebuttal from JKDS there.
rescind JKDS
lynch dhuber
Do you think the village hotshots should fire whenever they want? Or split shots between days?Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
The reason we shouldn't do it is because we currently have four villagers who can claim a role of some sort. That's our best weapon right now.
wuf, the reason I am not voting you is that if you did role wolf and this is your first time it would be kinda shitty to not let you get at least two days of fun out of it.
Add ong to the villager list. Im not seeing spazzy villager ong yet, but he thinks dhuber is wolfing, and I think so too. Thats enough for now. Luco and Rong seem villagery, and Im happy enough not lynching them too.
Gabe hasnt done shit to show he is a villager. This is odd, and goes against what I would consider gabe's day1 strat to be. While normally quiet, he usually makes some effort to post content. The problem with him being so quiet in this particular game, is that he completely understands the importance of speaking up. He knows that this game requires us to soulread, and he knows that this game is short. Given his last game, where he urged the lynch of Monstr because monstr was an unknown, it is against villager gabe's ideals to intentionally be so quiet in a game where information matters more than usual.
No, douche is shower. Stupid fucking langauge. Is it le douche or la douche?Quote:
Originally Posted by rong
trudatQuote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
should add that it isnt that i think soulreads never win games, but that i think soulreads exclusively never win games.
i think the general difference between how we use the term soulread and how i talk about he process of winning is that soulreading seems to be like standing in the middle of the ring and ko'ing your opponent while the "process" is bullying them into the corner and picking them apart. "soulreading" is integral to both. so i guess what im saying is that villages never win via clean ko'ing every member of the wolf team
I'm trying a new d1 style. I'll judge its success or failure at the end of the game.Quote:
Im not seeing spazzy villager ong yet
lolnopeQuote:
Originally Posted by GatorJH
They should wait till day 2, unless they are very confident in their read. We want to maximize the number of confirmed villagers on day 2.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
Fuck it ... Let's get this party started b4 our Euros go nitey-nite...
I SHOOT GABE WITH MY MURCAN GUN.
Speak up, son, or die hiding. Let that be a lesson...
hotshots are not confirmable until we kill the wolf hotshot.
lol then that happened
hoops and jkds wolf talking to wolf
i already declared the correct strategy. would be cool for peeps to notice
lynch today, vig night shot, hotshots d2 shot. hope against hope several wolves die in the process, or else lol our way to loserville