Christmas Carnage II

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/...20151013235609

Thank you all so much. I have granted all of the wishes that I can. The rest is up to you. I will not be joining you any further on your journey.

You don't have to go, you know. I have so many more mini-games we can play.
You could stay here with me, forever.

I do get lonely here... waiting for travelers to pass through.

...

Well. It seems your hearts are set.

My final advise to you is this:

If you mention anything about sending a PM with numbers in it, I will consider that a mod-killable offense.

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I'm going to run at the mod-kill, since we're handicapped by this inability to talk about game design, but gabe did not peek me wolf. What JKDS hinted was that he tried to get Boog to 'rand' wolf, and later gabe hinted that he did the same.

Modkill me for it if you want, MMM, I don't care.

If gabe peeked anyone anything it was JKDS as a villager as he was willing to invest a lot in JKDS's 'less than random' read.

If he peeked me wolf, why does he jump on the wagon I was building early on on Boog and never leave it? Why does he believe there's always a wolf between Boog and I when Boog snapsback at me and I go looking at others to find wolves?

There's another side to the "drrr gabe died - it makes rilla look bad because rilla is a wolf" it's "drrr gabe died - it makes rilla look bad because he's a villager"

I don't think gabe peekeed a wolf. I think gabe got what he wanted for christmas. And the wolves obviously thought this because otherwise why would they kill him? If rilla isn't a wolf, then they had no reason to think gabe is a special.

rilla is suggesting that the wolves would nom a probable non-special, just to set rilla's mislynch up.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

I'm going to run at the mod-kill, since we're handicapped by this inability to talk about game design, but gabe did not peek me wolf. What JKDS hinted was that he tried to get Boog to 'rand' wolf, and later gabe hinted that he did the same.

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Gabe did not try to get me to rand wolf. He tried to rand wolf YOU. Please don't try to insinuate otherwise:

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Originally Posted by gabe

i also should add that i like voting for rilla, for the same type of reason that i think jkds wants to kill boog. so thats pretty funny that you (rilla) are antagonizing me currently

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I hope you can comprehend that post. I won't go too far into it as I'm unsure where the line is.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

If gabe peeked anyone anything it was JKDS as a villager as he was willing to invest a lot in JKDS's 'less than random' read.

If he peeked me wolf, why does he jump on the wagon I was building early on on Boog and never leave it? Why does he believe there's always a wolf between Boog and I when Boog snapsback at me and I go looking at others to find wolves?

There's another side to the "drrr gabe died - it makes rilla look bad because rilla is a wolf" it's "drrr gabe died - it makes rilla look bad because he's a villager"

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With respect to the above part, IF gabe peeked anyone, it was JKDS. This is obvious. I don't think anyone would argue otherwise. Instead, you defend yourself against a 'gabe peeked rilla' argument that wasn't posed.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

What was suspicious of gabe's play on d1?

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

I at least tried to snap you out of your style today. I also helped juke Boog off of his usual opener and now I'm trying to get gabe to re-enter the thread after a lot of suspicious posts.

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Do I really have to explain this? Gabe was suspicious, this was basically agreed upon. Don't cast shade on me because I found gabe suspicious. As I said before, I wouldn't change my D1 votes. I openly admit that.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Modkill me for it if you want, MMM, I don't care.

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http://i.imgur.com/TiK16.gif

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I am not trying to hobble you, just prevent a game-breaking mass outing where everyone tells their numbers and requests and the wolves are obvious at that point.

Saying something akin to , "I feel [certain things] about [someone], but I can't put my finger on exactly what post makes me feel this way." cannot be a modkillable offense, since it couldn be an honest statement about the game thread.



I simply can not be so lenient about the numbers.
If I find a that anyone has coded their numbers into a post, that will be a mod-kill.

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Originally Posted by BooG690

Do you think I'm that bad at this game where I'd nom gabe? I'm never nomming gabe there, ever. I'm actually surprised the wolves killed gabe, with him looking suspicious and all.I only jumped ship to JKDS out of self-preservation. If I were to do it over again, I wouldn't change my votes on D1 at all. Gabe was playing suspiciously and JKDS was the better lynch of the BID/JKDS imo. Also, with my vote parked on gabe and him being the bandwagon I openly supported, do you really think I nom him as a wolf there? I don't. That's suicide.

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I don't think the gabe nom was bad, and I credit everyone here with the ability to mix things up.

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Hoopy, why ignore gabe's suspicions of rilla? BID, SMF, some input/effort would be nice.

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I'll be looking at that tonight.

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

I'll be the first to admit that I'm not particularly interested this game. I think it's mainly due to some sort of holiday hangover, idk.

I'm liking ong this game and think we should follow gabe's lead.

boog looks good to after his #148 post

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Make a new years resolution to crush as a villager.

Can you rescind your vote? We're already at 2 and majority is 4, no need for such early votes.

@BID

What do you think about JKDS flipping village? You were sure he was a wolf.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

http://i.imgur.com/TiK16.gif

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I am not trying to hobble you, just prevent a game-breaking mass outing where everyone tells their numbers and requests and the wolves are obvious at that point.

Saying something akin to , "I feel [certain things] about [someone], but I can't put my finger on exactly what post makes me feel this way." cannot be a modkillable offense, since it couldn be an honest statement about the game thread.



I simply can not be so lenient about the numbers.
If I find a that anyone has coded their numbers into a post, that will be a mod-kill.

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Can we say "I bid MMM moderator on round 1/2"? and can we add, "and I bid well."

I think yes because I could be lying, so it doesn't appear game breaking.

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Originally Posted by BooG690

Gabe did not try to get me to rand wolf. He tried to rand wolf YOU. Please don't try to insinuate otherwise:I hope you can comprehend that post. I won't go too far into it as I'm unsure where the line is.

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I meant to say "to me." As in "and gabe did the same to me."

Right now, we have JKDS hinting that he tried to rand you wolf and gabe hinting that he tried to rand me wolf.

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Originally Posted by BooG690

Do I really have to explain this? Gabe was suspicious, this was basically agreed upon. Don't cast shade on me because I found gabe suspicious. As I said before, I wouldn't change my D1 votes. I openly admit that.

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Yes, I asked why did you find him suspicious? Not did you find him suspicious? I know why I found him suspicious, I'm wondering why you did as well. That's not casting shade, that's doing due diligence.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I don't think gabe peekeed a wolf. I think gabe got what he wanted for christmas. And the wolves obviously thought this because otherwise why would they kill him? If rilla isn't a wolf, then they had no reason to think gabe is a special.

rilla is suggesting that the wolves would nom a probable non-special, just to set rilla's mislynch up.

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You would.

As Boog just pointed out, there isn't much reason to suspect that gabe was leaving a seer peek as it was obvious what he was doing.

I do think it's funny that Ong was completely wrongheaded about JKDS yesterday, I explained why, and he would not budge, and today he is completely wrongheaded about me, I've explained why, and he'll just continue to campaign for one and only one lynch today.

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Originally Posted by gabe

New Years has me in a great mood so I'll just go ahead and say it. I'm not a wolf

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Originally Posted by gabe

we are going to have a mislynch today

i can feel it

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Originally Posted by gabe

fuck i meant to say "we arent going to have a mislynch today"

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Originally Posted by gabe

yes thats very wolfy. im still in a good mood because of new years so ill be honest. im not a wolf

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These three posts in succession are loose, especially for gabe. The im not a wolf twice was also peculiar, like a bad transwolf. Actually, the whole thing is just sloppy. He's not meshing well his new play style, to say the least.

And then there was the whole idea of tightening up due to not being able to talk about the game setup. All of D1 was bad for gabe. I could can't find a post where he doesn't sound wolfy.

What do you think of OngBonga?

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

I do think it's funny that Ong was completely wrongheaded about JKDS yesterday, I explained why, and he would not budge, and today he is completely wrongheaded about me, I've explained why, and he'll just continue to campaign for one and only one lynch today.

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It's funny that you seem to be suggesting that I hit the seer after nomming someone I'd eliminated from the seer pool in an attempt to set up the mislynch of someone who could be the seer for all I know.

What do you think of smf and hoopy, rilla?

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

It's funny that you seem to be suggesting that I hit the seer after nomming someone I'd eliminated from the seer pool in an attempt to set up the mislynch of someone who could be the seer for all I know.

What do you think of smf and hoopy, rilla?

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This is what you did with JKDS yesterday. You just kept spinning around and around without ever checking in with reality.

Gabe is good and a solid kill. Gabe's kill can be used to implicate others. The wolves couldn't even be sure there was a seer in the game. This isn't rocket science.

There's a good reason to lynch me today - Gabe hinted that he tried to rand me wolf. There's a bad reason to lynch me today - whatever you're doing.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

It's funny that you seem to be suggesting that I hit the seer after nomming someone I'd eliminated from the seer pool in an attempt to set up the mislynch of someone who could be the seer for all I know.

What do you think of smf and hoopy, rilla?

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And Hoopy is sounding very pure. I really like that he's trying to buy time and looking over the village and he's trying to farm BID back into the game.

Earlier in the game, he said he didn't think I was being serious with my prods at Boog, which I thought was a very villagery thing to say because he's bringing an honest perspective to the table without thinking twice.

It's funny that I now remember that, because one of the clunky posts you made earlier was when JKDS was joking around about Boog and my momma, you made a post where you couldn't wrap your head around what was going on. Almost like the polar opposite to how Hoopy reacted to a similar event.

On SMF, I really don't think anything. I skimmed his posts when he made them, nothing stuck out.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

This is what you did with JKDS yesterday. You just kept spinning around and around without ever checking in with reality.

Gabe is good and a solid kill. Gabe's kill can be used to implicate others. The wolves couldn't even be sure there was a seer in the game. This isn't rocket science.

There's a good reason to lynch me today - Gabe hinted that he tried to rand me wolf. There's a bad reason to lynch me today - whatever you're doing.

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What? I'm lynching you today exactly because gabe hitned that he randed you wolf.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

What? I'm lynching you today exactly because gabe hitned that he randed you wolf.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm suspicious because you didn't get nommed? Seriously?

Isn't it obvious why gabe got nommed? Because rilla is a wolf who knew gabe was right about rilla being a wolf and thus concluded that gabe is in a priviledged position and is there special.

If I'm a wolf, I don't nom gabe (unless I'm wolf with rilla), because I'd know gabe is wrong about rilla, and thus not in a priviledged position, and thus probably not a juicy special.

gabe nom confirms that the wolves believed him.

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So you didn't mean that gabe got nommed because I was special hunting? Because that seems to be a big part of your case and the only thing that separates it from the near identical case against Boog.

A Boog who you have as a villager because you're certain about me... certain only because gabe hinted I was a wolf?

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

So you didn't mean that gabe got nommed because I was special hunting? Because that seems to be a big part of your case and the only thing that separates it from the near identical case against Boog.

A Boog who you have as a villager because you're certain about me... certain only because gabe hinted I was a wolf?

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gabe got nommed because he showed his hand to the wolves by naiming a wolf as his rand.

It's not just that gabe hinted you're a wolf... it's that he then died and flipped seer.

gabe was good at randing.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

gabe got nommed because he showed his hand to the wolves by naiming a wolf as his rand.

It's not just that gabe hinted you're a wolf... it's that he then died and flipped seer.

gabe was good at randing.

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So was JKDS good at randing?

He died and flipped villager.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

So was JKDS good at randing?

He died and flipped villager.

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He thought he was vanilla, so no, I don't think he was good at randing.

rilla knows exactly what I'm getting at and is now asking me inanae questions to deflect from the obvious.

That gabe was a seer is meaningless because it was obvious what he was doing. Even now that he's dead and flipped seer, it's obvious what he was doing. His hint against me isn't a n0 peek.

Earlier today, gabe died because he was seer hunted. Now gabe just happened to die as seer and his "i also should add that i like voting for rilla, for the same type of reason that i think jkds wants to kill boog." has turned into a n0 peek!

I never said n0 peek.

I'm suggesting gabe was good at randing.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I was right in that he was insincire. He thought he was vanilla, so he had no reason to suspect boog. It was a reaction test, but it had the effect of causing me to not trust him. I'm not gonna beat myself up for misreading JKDS here. He wasnt being honest, and I picked up on that.

My other thoughts haven't changed. I felt rilla was iffy yesterday, he looks a dead cert now.

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Are you saying that neither JKDS or gabe were talking about rands? That JKDS was just trying to get a rise out of Boog? Even when he was dying at the end of the day and re-iterated that his Boog lynch was less-than-random?

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Originally Posted by Hoopy

Make a new years resolution to crush as a villager.

Can you rescind your vote? We're already at 2 and majority is 4, no need for such early votes.

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Unsolicited ideas for new years resolutions will be frowned upon.

Also, the vote count being at 2/4 is not an issue.

I think JKDS was playing funny buggers because he didn't get what he wanted and wanted to have some fun with boog.

I think gabe was being honest because he did get what he wanted and wanted to make sure it wasn't missed.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm suggesting gabe was good at randing.

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If I could have chosen someone's role, I would have chosen myself villager because I was not prepared to show up for a game for the early days following the New Year.

I wonder how good I could be at randing.

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Originally Posted by Hoopy

@BID

What do you think about JKDS flipping village? You were sure he was a wolf.

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It is considered yet another blow to my fragile villager confidence.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I think JKDS was playing funny buggers because he didn't get what he wanted and wanted to have some fun with boog.

I think gabe was being honest because he did get what he wanted and wanted to make sure it wasn't missed.

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How could gabe have known he got me to be a wolf? How could he possibly have known that he didn't miss? He died night 1. He may not have even had a n0 peek.

Look at how far your story has moved.

Gabe tried to rand me wolf, he died and was seer, this validates his rand because the wolves were seer hunting and knew he was right. Boog is also a villager because of rilla-action.

Now it's Gabe tried to rand wolf, succeed. JKDS didn't try to rand Boog wolf and just wanted to flop around.

Rilla seems sincere

rescind

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

How could gabe have known he got me to be a wolf?

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His role pm. Oh hey look, I'm seer, I half got what I wanted. Maybe I'm good at randing.

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He may not have even had a n0 peek.

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I never said n0 peek.

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Look at how far your story has moved.

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No it hasn't. Demonstrate this with linear quotes please.

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Now it's Gabe tried to rand wolf, succeed. JKDS didn't try to rand Boog wolf and just wanted to flop around.

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there's a reason for this.

gabe flipped seer.

JKDS did not.

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

Rilla seems sincere

rescind

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http://i.imgur.com/OHJ9CpG.jpg

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

His role pm. Oh hey look, I'm seer, I half got what I wanted. Maybe I'm good at randing.



I never said n0 peek.



No it hasn't. Demonstrate this with linear quotes please.



there's a reason for this.

gabe flipped seer.

JKDS did not.

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He never said he bid for himself seer. Anyone could have bid for him to get that role.

Where is the certainty in any of this, Ong?

Ah, it doesn't matter, I'm already 4 posts past having won this thing outright.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

He never said he bid for himself seer.

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Of course he didn't! I'm making that assumption because he was indeed seer. Asking to be seer for christmas is probably the most common wish on the letter to santa.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Anyone could have bid for him to get that role.

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Instead of asking for it themselves?

You're talking nonsense.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I was right in that he was insincire. He thought he was vanilla, so he had no reason to suspect boog. It was a reaction test, but it had the effect of causing me to not trust him. I'm not gonna beat myself up for misreading JKDS here. He wasnt being honest, and I picked up on that.

My other thoughts haven't changed. I felt rilla was iffy yesterday, he looks a dead cert now.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Important to note... gabe's wolf read on rilla is only a special tell to a wolf team with rilla in it.

rilla is a dead cert.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Scanning through rilla's posts, his focus is largely on boog, gabe, me and jkds. I can see 3/4 villagers here and I'm not sure rilla would be pushing at what's likely his only buddy on d1, so boog looks good to me also.

rascal tried to slam the brakes on the jkds wagon when I doubt wolves would, I think he's very likely villager.

I got rilla as wolf, with boog and rascal as villagers.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm suspicious because you didn't get nommed? Seriously?

Isn't it obvious why gabe got nommed? Because rilla is a wolf who knew gabe was right about rilla being a wolf and thus concluded that gabe is in a priviledged position and is there special.

If I'm a wolf, I don't nom gabe (unless I'm wolf with rilla), because I'd know gabe is wrong about rilla, and thus not in a priviledged position, and thus probably not a juicy special.

gabe nom confirms that the wolves believed him.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

It looks to me like they were certain gabe was special.

Now why would they think that?

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Oh look he's moved again! No longer is he certain I'm a wolf because of gabe's dying as the seer confirming the wolves were special hunting him because he was right, now he's flying on assumptions that, by their very nature, could easily be wrong.

ffs I'm just allowing you to muddy the waters here.

I'm certain you're a wolf because...

a) gabe implied he randed you wolf
b) gabe was nommed
c) gabe flipped seer

a) implies gabe was confident in his read because of his role
b) implies the wolves believed him
c) implies that gabe was indeed good at randing

a) implies rilla wolf
b) implies rilla wolf
c) implies rilla wolf

I'm not gonna let you try and twist my words any more. I've been clear in my thought process and it's easy to follow. You're misrepping me.

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

Unsolicited ideas for new years resolutions will be frowned upon.

Also, the vote count being at 2/4 is not an issue.

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It leaves little margin for error.

Just seen your rescind.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

ffs I'm just allowing you to muddy the waters here.

I'm certain you're a wolf because...

a) gabe implied he randed you wolf
b) gabe was nommed
c) gabe flipped seer

a) implies gabe was confident in his read because of his role
b) implies the wolves believed him
c) implies that gabe was indeed good at randing

a) implies rilla wolf
b) implies rilla wolf
c) implies rilla wolf

I'm not gonna let you try and twist my words any more. I've been clear in my thought process and it's easy to follow. You're misrepping me.

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Ah, it isn't an evolution, it's just that when you're case for gabe being special hunted lost some luster, the you just had to toss the kitchen sink at it.

Someone is being lead by his conclusions here. Just like he was with JKDS day 1. Funny that.

gabe was special hunted for fuck's sake! By wolves who thought he was good at randing. Now why would a non-rilla wolf team think that?

how have you managed to make that perfectly obvious point so muddled?

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

gabe was special hunted for fuck's sake! By wolves who thought he was good at randing. Now why would a non-rilla wolf team think that?

how have you managed to make that perfectly obvious point so muddled?

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Perfectly obvious? I would never consider anyone good at randing. It's stupid as all hell to pretend to look into the bids based on so little information.

You've spent this entire game thinking outside of the game thread. You knew JKDS was a wolf because he could have only otherwise been a special when he hinted his rand, which is dumb as shit because he turned out to just be a villager. And now you know I'm a wolf because you know what the wolves were thinking because you know what gabe was thinking and how effectively he could game the bids.

Gabe could have died because he's a good player and his death implicates another good player. It could be as simple as that. Just like JKDS could have been a villager instead of the ridiculous FPS thinking you spun yourself around yesterday.

That's the one thing that makes your entire theory fall apart - I'd have to be thinking like you think.

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Gabe could have died because he's a good player and his death implicates another good player. It could be as simple as that. Just like JKDS could have been a villager instead of the ridiculous FPS thinking you spun yourself around yesterday.

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But a non-rilla wolf team would have reason to think gabe's not the seer, because he claims to have randed you wolf and wolves can see he failed. So why believe he randed seer?

A non-rilla wolf team has eliminated gabe from the seer pool.

Considering from a non-rilla wolf team's pov, you could be seer, it's crazy to suggest that gabe was lynched just to set up your mislynch.

And don't tell me that "maybe there was no seer" because in a game where people get to ask for their own role, of course there's a fucking seer.

In a 9p game where there's very probably a seer, the wolves are not gonna nom someone they don't think is seer.

ergo, you're a wolf. That's all that makes sense to me.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

But a non-rilla wolf team would have reason to think gabe's not the seer, because he claims to have randed you wolf and wolves can see he failed. So why believe he randed seer?

A non-rilla wolf team has eliminated gabe from the seer pool.

Considering from a non-rilla wolf team's pov, you could be seer, it's crazy to suggest that gabe was lynched just to set up your mislynch.

And don't tell me that "maybe there was no seer" because in a game where people get to ask for their own role, of course there's a fucking seer.

In a 9p game where there's very probably a seer, the wolves are not gonna nom someone they don't think is seer.

ergo, you're a wolf. That's all that makes sense to me.

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They don't need to believe he randed seer, all they need is that he's a good player and its implication on me.

I know it's all that makes sense to you, Ong. Because you're not trying to find wolves, you're trying to solve a puzzle that can't be solved. You're inventing information to invent more information and you have no idea how hazardous this is when you're trying to be right.

Of course, the examples of you doing this and failing completely are only one day in the past!

You didn't care about sorting out the village yesterday, and you don't care about it today. All you care about is your precious FPS thinking.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

You've spent this entire game thinking outside of the game thread.

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This isn't true and is yet another misrep.

The nom and both flips are playing a critical role.

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Originally Posted by gabe

I'm actually convinced already
lynch boog

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Originally Posted by gabe

New Years has me in a great mood so I'll just go ahead and say it. I'm not a wolf

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Originally Posted by gabe

i feel like we are all thinking of our PMs but cant say anything

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Originally Posted by gabe

we are going to have a mislynch today

i can feel it

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Originally Posted by gabe

fuck i meant to say "we arent going to have a mislynch today"

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Originally Posted by gabe

yes thats very wolfy. im still in a good mood because of new years so ill be honest. im not a wolf

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Originally Posted by gabe

boog or rilla is a wolf

its up to them to speak more villagery going forward

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Originally Posted by gabe

i like the idea of us getting to influence the game set up but it has definitely tightened up people's behavior

i'm voting for boog because jkds voted for him and the way jkds is acting, it makes sense that boog's chances of being a wolf werent completely random

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Originally Posted by gabe

rescind your jkds votes. hes my strongest villager so far. he doesnt need to post like this as a wolf

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Originally Posted by gabe

obv i havent participated too much so far but neither has anyone else....

we're on page 1 and day 1 is over in a single digit # of hours

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Originally Posted by gabe

the case is implied....



but this isnt vietnam...there are rules here

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Originally Posted by gabe

do you mean literally in the classical sense or the new definition?



post 1 i think hes chastizing people for voting for him because it appears he has no case and is having fun

post 2 hes kinda like "i know my case looks weak but hint hint hint"

i dont think a wolfjkds would fake this. this is the best piece we have to go on.


i also should add that i like voting for rilla, for the same type of reason that i think jkds wants to kill boog. so thats pretty funny that you (rilla) are antagonizing me currently

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Originally Posted by gabe

cmon i obviously knew that post existed since i quoted it in the same post youre responding too

i dont think jkds is saying "i did that for the lolz" in that post

i think hes referring to what people might think he is doing, and wanting to lynch him for it

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Originally Posted by gabe

well i said earlier in the thread "boog or rilla are my targets" or something

an explanation was wanted for that earlier. now here i am, in the thread, giving it.

that's alot of questions from you. thats usually pretty wolfy. boog and rilla :shipit::shipit:

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by gabe

Ong I missed your post. Now I see it. I know what you are thinking but I disagree

Rilla, I'm exploring now. You are here watching it happen

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by gabe

ong you are making a bad vote on jkds. count on it

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by gabe

Why are you confused

Do you people understand the implication...

Boog and rilla gg

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by gabe

Well you've made your bed

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Every post that gabe made.

I'm wary of saying much regarding these 'hints'. Just going to check over MMM's rules before I post more.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I assuming noone is on my wavelength when it comes to my suspicion of JKDS.

Let's see if I can elaborate without crossing any lines.

Ask yourself why JKDS would be in a position to suspect boog is likely a wolf. Ask yourself if, in such a position, JKDS would draw such obvious attention to himself so early.

JKDS is implying more than boog wolf. He's also implying JKDS special. And that is not something I would expect JKDS to spew so casually.

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Holy shit, you used the same fucking thinking yesterday.

When anyone suggests they randed someone successfully, they're suggesting they randed seer successfully, hollly shiiiit.

Gabe was actually right therefore he must have randed successfully twice because he figured out the game.

You're trying to lynch two villagers on the same stupid thinking, it's amazing.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Holy shit, you used the same fucking thinking yesterday.

When anyone suggests they randed someone successfully, they're suggesting they randed seer successfully, hollly shiiiit.

Gabe was actually right therefore he must have randed successfully twice because he figured out the game.

You're trying to lynch two villagers on the same stupid thinking, it's amazing.

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WHICH MEANS YOU THOUGHT BOTH JKDS AND GABE WERE POSSIBLE SEERS. You immediately campaigned against JKDS and gabe got nommed.

Hahhahaa

Quote:

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

WHICH MEANS YOU THOUGHT BOTH JKDS AND GABE WERE POSSIBLE SEERS. You immediately campaigned against JKDS and gabe got nommed.

Hahhahaa

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I didn't think JKDS was seer. Read my posts in more detail. I felt that if he was seer, he wouldn't be stupid enough to spew who he tried to rand as wolf.

And I'd only think gabe is seer if I know you're a wolf...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I didn't think JKDS was seer. Read my posts in more detail. I felt that if he was seer, he wouldn't be stupid enough to spew who he tried to rand as wolf.

And I'd only think gabe is seer if I know you're a wolf...

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Right, you're thinking on JKDS was broken into 3 categories:

JKDS is doing it as a villager: 0%, he would only do it as a seer.
JKDS is doing it as a seer: 0%, he's just playing bad.
JKDS is doing it as a wolf: 100%, he's just playing bad.

The fact that you acknowledge that his actions polarize his range to Boog wolf - JKDS seer OR Boog unknown - JKDS wolf, means that all you need to believe that gabe is a good seer shot is his hinting his rand at all. It polarizes his range in your mind. To you, gabe is a good hit without knowing if he's right, because he thinks he's right and that's all that counts.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I guess it comes down to how you interpret his attack on boog. He's dismissing it as lol it's d1 lynch boog, but I'm not buying it. He used language that, under the circumstances, can be considered ambiguous. It can have the effect of having people assume boog is > rand to be wolf (note gabe's recent posts), but if boog turns up villager, JKDS is protected from having to explain himself by the first rule of fight club. It's wolfy as hell. Furthermore, I think for JKDS to be villager, he's not only implying boog wolf, he implies JKDS special, and I don't think JKDS is ever that reckless as special.

It's easily the most compelling case I can see for today's lynch. I mean the best you can do is drew for being "terse".

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Right, you're thinking on JKDS was broken into 3 categories:

JKDS is doing it as a villager: 0%, he would only do it as a seer.
JKDS is doing it as a seer: 0%, he's just playing bad.
JKDS is doing it as a wolf: 100%, he's just playing bad.

The fact that you acknowledge that his actions polarize his range to Boog wolf - JKDS seer OR Boog unknown - JKDS wolf, means that all you need to believe that gabe is a good seer shot is his hinting his rand at all. It polarizes his range in your mind. To you, gabe is a good hit without knowing if he's right, because he thinks he's right and that's all that counts.

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QED Wolf team doesn't need me on the team to hit gabe, they just need to see gabe believing in his rand. That his hint missed is just gravy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

QED Wolf team doesn't need me on the team to hit gabe, they just need to see gabe believing in his rand. That his hint missed is just gravy.

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I thought for a minute you had a point here. But I don't think you do.

When gabe first made his comment, I was alarmed, but when taken in the context of the shit I'd been giving JKDS for exactly that, it's hard to believe a seer (or wolf) would say what he did. I don't think that his apparent belief alone is enough of a special tell to hit him.

I think they knew he was special, and they know that because they know he's right about rilla. It's still the most logical conclusion I can draw.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I thought for a minute you had a point here. But I don't think you do.

When gabe first made his comment, I was alarmed, but when taken in the context of the shit I'd been giving JKDS for exactly that, it's hard to believe a seer (or wolf) would say what he did. I don't think that his apparent belief alone is enough of a special tell to hit him.

I think they knew he was special, and they know that because they know he's right about rilla. It's still the most logical conclusion I can draw.

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Wolves can know he's special based only on him thinking he was special. They do not need the additional information of his second bid being right or wrong.

You insist that they do need this information, but it's plainly simple that gabe could win the first bidding round and lose the second as others adjust their bid strategy or others counter bid him as I'm a beloved villager around these parts.

My point stands and the heaven's sing.

You need to get off your logical conclusions because they've failed you enough already.

My problem here is we have a dead seer who was telling us you're likely a wolf.

How much of a liability are you at endgame rilla if you're a villager? Then again how much of a liability am I if you're a villager.

Fuck this I've had enough, I'm sleeping on it.

rescind

If you think about it, does bidding someone for wolf actually increase their chance of being a wolf by much.

e.g.

Assume 2 wolves, so 2/9 or 22% random chance of Person A being a wolf.

Person B wants A to be a wolf. Chance of this happening shouldn't be lower than 11% or higher than 1 - ((8/9)x(7/8)x(6/7)) = 34%.

Hmmm higher than I thought at the top end.

http://i.imgur.com/hodY9Nl.png

Day 1 Vote Chartz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm suspicious because you didn't get nommed? Seriously?

Isn't it obvious why gabe got nommed? Because rilla is a wolf who knew gabe was right about rilla being a wolf and thus concluded that gabe is in a priviledged position and is there special.

If I'm a wolf, I don't nom gabe (unless I'm wolf with rilla), because I'd know gabe is wrong about rilla, and thus not in a priviledged position, and thus probably not a juicy special.

gabe nom confirms that the wolves believed him.

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I don't think gabe was NK'd because the wolves thought he peeked rilla wolf, especially when gabe only voted for boog in #13 and never changed his vote. I think they killed him because of his defense of JKDS.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

It's funny that you seem to be suggesting that I hit the seer after nomming someone I'd eliminated from the seer pool in an attempt to set up the mislynch of someone who could be the seer for all I know.

What do you think of smf and hoopy, rilla?

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Wat? I can't even follow this argument. You eliminated someone from the seer pool? This makes no sense from a villa perspective.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

Wat? I can't even follow this argument. You eliminated someone from the seer pool? This makes no sense from a villa perspective.

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It's not supposed to make any sense. This is how I interpreted rilla's attack on me. Which didn't make any sense.

It makes no sense from a wolf perspective to eliminate someone from the seer pool and then nom them.

Which is the point I'm making there.

http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/...20151111052225
Greetings again.

It's time for
https://www.businessforhome.org/wp-c...ote_Counts.jpg


Player (votes) || Voter [post in which they voted - err - rescinded]

...

no vote (7) || BID [182], boog, Hoopy, rascal, ong [206], rilla, SMF


D2 ends at 10:00 PM GMT on Wednesday, January 6, in ~16 hours.


***
SMF has asked for a sub.

Please stay tuned for more information.

All right

Show's over

Let's do this.

LEROYYYYYYYYYYY
JENKINNNNNNNNS

lynch ong

fellow villagers, get on board with this.

lynch boog

Boog-ong wagons?

All Boog's done today is sure up his day 1 positions. He produced a defense on gabe on demand but couldn't share his thoughts on Ongbonga when asked. Plus, his standing by the convictions of his mistakes is a play I've seen him use as a wolf.

Plus, JKDS's attempt to rand him does make him more likely to be a wolf.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

All right

Show's over

Let's do this.

LEROYYYYYYYYYYY
JENKINNNNNNNNS

lynch ong

fellow villagers, get on board with this.

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drew has had little to say this game, but what he has said is... ong is a villager, lynch jkds; ong is a villager, lynch rilla; ong isn't a villager, lynch ong.

lynch drew

Quote:

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Plus, JKDS's attempt to rand him does make him more likely to be a wolf.

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This is funny.

I can't be fucked with another day of this. Lynch me today please, I don't want to be the mislynch for the wolf win.

I think there's exactly one wolf between rilla and drew.

The way drew sheeped me on to the rilla wagon has me thinking they're not both wolves.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

All right

Show's over

Let's do this.

LEROYYYYYYYYYYY
JENKINNNNNNNNS

lynch ong

fellow villagers, get on board with this.

---

This guy right here.

After rereading the ong/rilla battle both look like villagers to me.

SMF/replacement is basically random chance to be a wolf, since he's done nothing. Voting for him is like a cop out.

Doesn't feel like rascal has done much, his chart indicates some effort though.

Most likely wolf pair (assuming 2 otherwise game is unbalanced imo) is BID & BooG.

Not voting for ong, rilla or SMF today.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hoopy

This guy right here.

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Yeah if drew is a wolf and wins playing like this we'll never live it down.

Lets run BooG - BID wagons today.

lynch BooG

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hoopy

Doesn't feel like rascal has done much, his chart indicates some effort though.

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He tried to slam the brakes on the JKDS wagon when it was about to go through. There's no need for a wolf to do that. rascal is my top villager read.

BooG and rilla both have a slightly higher chance of being wolves owing to JKDS and gabe's hints. rilla has shown some village knees while boog has not yet.

http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/...20151111052225

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

SMF has asked for a sub.

Please stay tuned for more information.

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Gator will be subbing in for SMF.

https://mir-s3-cdn-cf.behance.net/pr...MzE2LDAsMA.png

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

He tried to slam the brakes on the JKDS wagon when it was about to go through. There's no need for a wolf to do that. rascal is my top villager read.

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Good point, he looks much better for that.