9s v 3bet shove & call

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $40+$10+$4 Tournament, 500/1,000 Blinds 125 Ante (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Button (t16,922)
SB (t10,249)
BB (t10,132)
UTG (t12,672)
UTG+1 (t17,395)
MP1 (t30,018)
MP2 (t18,832)
Hero (MP3) (t22,345)
CO (t20,480)

Hero's M: 8.51

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
4 folds, Hero bets t2,000, 1 fold, Button raises to t16,797 (All-In), 1 fold, BB calls t9,007 (All-In), Hero ???

(Total pot: t23,639)

BB has a tag for calling down light, button is an unknown. Not sure exactly what my image is like but it's nothing special (haven't derped)

Thoughts?

Pretty easy call is it not?

With no reads on the button we have to assume that he can shove a reasonably wide rage, which 99 has beat and if the BB calls down light we can also assume we are ahead of his range. Especially with how short he is.

looks like a call to me even though it is one we are not loving to make. Also wouldn't be the worst spot to fold and then not tell anyone about it.

Tough situation. Not sure where the game is sitting in terms of payouts. One other player and I think I call but against two other players I am thinking that folding is the right play. Keep you chips and move on.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by chardrian

looks like a call to me even though it is one we are not loving to make. Also wouldn't be the worst spot to fold and then not tell anyone about it.

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seems right

This is a Ko? and you cover both! Seems like a call to me.

By calls down light do you mean that as in calls shoves light and "gets it" or is a station?

Calling a shove light. Starting stack was 3,000

I am not sure if a call can be justified, but there are good arguments for a fold...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sin Uggla

I am not sure if a call can be justified, but there are good arguments for a fold...

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Feel free to expand :)

i'm just jamming pre, stack sizes behind are too annoying

I am not a great player - I post more so as to I learn from all the answers I see.

My opinion:
Button is an "unknown" and has a substantial chip stack
I am typically influenced by the state of the tourney...would love to know..

In essence - I hate just about any time to be the third person "all-in". Clearly there are 2 people that have the possibility to outdraw on me - even if I go in with a small advantage. And probably at best I have a relative small advantage vs either - but vs 2 people my odds are way reduced. I have a very healthy stack if I fold - so I fold and fight an other fight.
If I had a bigger commitment in the pot - it probably would change my decision.

For me this is an easy fold .... regaurdless of there table image 99 is likely to be facing 4 over cards ,,, and the best case of 99 v 88 and 77 or A7 .. ur still only about 60% to win ... fold fold fold and smile

PS you don't say how many are left in the tournee or how long the blinds are

Quote:

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Originally Posted by drmcboy

i'm just jamming pre, stack sizes behind are too annoying

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Not a fan of jamming 20bb this deep, turns out hand face up.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dneureiter

This is a Ko? and you cover both! Seems like a call to me.

By calls down light do you mean that as in calls shoves light and "gets it" or is a station?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by chardrian

looks like a call to me even though it is one we are not loving to make. Also wouldn't be the worst spot to fold and then not tell anyone about it.

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Ended up calling, seemed close to me too. Anyone saying this is an easy fold, you're wrong. There's a lot of dead money in the pot and 99 is a strong hand. Positions mean we'll have a weak hand here a lot of the time, BTN is going to be shoving light and we know that BB can have a wide range here. I'd be surprised if we had less than 35% equity but it's going to be close regardless. Saying that we should fold just because we probably aren't favourite isn't a good reason to fold - if we've got a decent edge we should take it.

the 1200 extra chips in the pot from the 2 KOs at risk swings this from being kind of close into a pretty easy call.

Getting 2.2:1 on our call means we need about 31% equity, and we can afford to even have that drop a little bit because we cover both (KO equity counts for something, at least).

Ranging 1st reshover on a common-ish resteal range of pairs, 22+,A5s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,A8o+,KJo+, and the bb on a nitty 88+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+, we're 32% to scoop whole pot. But winning at least the side pot is worth our money back in the hand, and vs villian 1's reship range we're 57/43.

So (57-32=) 25% of the time we break even (ish).
32% of the time we profit about 28000 chips
and (100-32-25) 43% of the time we lose 16900 chips

0.25*0 = 0 chips (obv)
0.32*28000 = +8960 chips when we win
0.43*16900= -7267 chips when we lose

Difference, not including KOs = +1693 chips, or 1.6bb... A healthy amount. Also, in the $54 KO with 3k starting stacks, the value of a KO is about 600 chips (starting stack/5, because a bounty is 1/5 of the buyin).

So 25% of the time we break even but make 1 KO
32% of the time we make 2 KOs
43% of the time we make 0 KOs

.25 x 1 = +0.25 KOs
.32 x 2 = +0.64 KOs
.43 x 0 = -0 KOs

Total: +0.89 KOs, or +534 chips on top of cEV.

Total cEV of call (excluding ICM since no ICM situation was presented in OP) = (1693+534) +2227 chips, or over 2.2bb.


Cliffs: snapcall

Also of note even if this call is slightly bad (lets say ranges were adjusted to make our 99 call have a cEV of -200), it's still a call because the adding the KO cEV of 400-600 chips (would have to re-do math based on how often we won the pot) pushes the total cEV into the positive.

KOs are fun

SuperKOs are funner

Progressive KOs are funnest ;)

Hero's raising hijack and against an unknown I think I would fold.
I put them on a much tighter reshoving range than the one sykedupp posted since I don't think a random thinks of it as restealing but rather just shoving for value more often than not and 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ is the range I would give randoms by default.

If hero was raising from BU and got 3-bet shoved on by the SB the range might be okay but I think I'd put villain on a tighter 3-betting range still.

EDIT: Even with those tight ranges actually I changed my mind and think this is a call. Your equity is still good against that range. Also the chance at $20 and just having a big stack in a KO tourney is pretty valuable.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by chardrian

looks like a call to me even though it is one we are not loving to make. Also wouldn't be the worst spot to fold and then not tell anyone about it.

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ha ha.. love this ^ (was exactly what I was thinking before reading down thru the thread).

the correct thing to do hmm??? we are flipping a 3 sided coin here sometimes i call, sometimes i fold 8s or better is okay ?!@# did you get the bounties ?

Steelsatin, download Pokerstove here https://github.com/andrewprock/pokerstove and put in some ranges you think are realistic :)

not real sure how to use pokerstove real good but i had a go and was around 35-40 percent equity, so i guess its probrably an easy call pascal. its just a lot of your chips u know!?

Open it up, click on Player 1, then click on the 2nd tab. There's a big range of hands, each in a square. Click on the squares for the hands you think they might have and then press OK. Do the same for player 2. For player 3, write in "99". Then click calculate.

The results are in the text at the bottom. Copy and paste them in here ;)

cut and paste won't work , do you know how to fix this?
equity win tie
hand 0: 29.170% 28.16% 01.01% {TT+,88-66,A7s+, KJs-KTs,Q9s+ JTs,K10o+,QJo, JTo}
hand 1: 33.533% 32.52% 01.01% {TT+,88-77 ,A8S+ ,KJs+ ,QJs, A8o+,KTo+}
hand 2: 37.297% 37.12% 00.18% {99}

That's fine. So BTN 3bet shoves 16bb and BB calls 9.5bb. I assume your top range is for BTN and bottom is for BB.

Do you really think Big Blind will call an all in after a raise and a shove with A8s, QJs, A8o and KTo?

I admit i have seen worse calls but i put these in + just because its a low buy-in & its a bountie as well (u also said he was a loose caller) , i suppose more realisticly it could be any pair or AJo+ any suited Ace AA kk QQ Ako Aks prob most likely , i mean if i know the player or i don't know him its different .

Try putting some tighter (worst case) ranges - AJs+, AJo+, TT+ - into Pokerstove and see what it says :)

Those ranges will be looser for the Button who shoves as he has fold equity :)

99 = 33.337% equity ! so what do we do is it good enough to call? i mean i just had JJ that lost to AK and i seriously hate jacks lol (bubbled again) out 15th 12 paid JJ vs AK pre-flop.

4 bet UTG then player to the left shoves i reluctantly call he has AKo and hits the flop i am out ! the thing is i am not sure if my call is correct i am flipping and the question is ? IS it time to flip or fold even if you have the odds to call so much of my stack with pocket 99s. am i feeling lucky (no i am not lol)

Post the hand. Depends how deep you are tbh.

i would like to post it but , i cant remember the tourney number and pokerstars history not giving me the information i need sorry Imsavy