$100nl 6max - Folding Top Two in Multiway Pot

NOTE: This is somewhat wordy and I apologize for that, I just had a lot running through my head at the time

So my BR is nearing $2k and Ive decided to take some shots at good [non-monster] $100nl tables. If move up and the play has been horrible but I had been hit with incredibly shitty variance. Anyways leading up to this I had just lost a big pot [~60BBs] in a blind battle with KK vs. 53 [raised preflop, bet flop he hit pair of 3 w/ OESD, made trips on the river] and then another big hand where the board essentially killed any value my hand had and thats just the sort of session its been. So anyways, I was feeling pretty shitty about this move up and wasnt sure if I let it get to me on this hand or not. I knew my play was going to be affected by my attitude so this was the last orbit I was going to play.

Anyways, enough about that. The preflop raiser opens very light and folds way too often on the flop so I pick up AQs on the button and 3bet. The BB then smoothcalled the 3bet, and the raiser called as well. I wasnt worried much about the raise, but the BB had me worried.

His stats were 26/3.7/0.55 so I didnt think he was calling this raise too light and if he was hed fold if he missed. The flop comes AQ9 and its checked to me, I hit top two and pot it, they both call. Now Im worried about both, I think there is atleast one ace out there and a set is a possibility. The turn brings a blank and the BB suddenly leads for half the pot [I dont even have enough to make a full raise over this], UTG folds and action is on me.

First instict was "push you have 2 pair, are way down this session and this hand will completely turn things around." Then I stopped to actually think about what he could have here and I thought I was going to be up against a set way to often to make this profitable. He is very passive, had he checked I would have pushed and thought Id be ahead enough to make it profitable, but with him suddenly betting after Ive shown so much strength and he is typically passive I dont think I can call here. AA or QQ both make sense, and 99 I guess is a possibility, but I doubt it, the only other option really is AK but would a player this passive play AK this hard?

Anyways sorry this was so longwinded, but really this hand made me incredibly frustrated as I didnt want to think I just laid down the best hand in a big pot to end a losing session. So is this a call or a fold? Please explain your reasoning for whatever you say. Im basically expecting to hear that this was absolutely horrible, so dont hold back.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($98.50)
SB ($48.57)
BB ($153.25)
UTG ($85.10)
MP ($59.20)
CO ($255.38)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG raises to $3, 2 folds, Hero raises to $9, 1 fold, BB calls $8, UTG calls $6.

Flop: ($27.50) A, Q, 9 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $26, BB calls $26, UTG calls $26.

Turn: ($105.50) 5 (3 players)
BB bets $50, UTG folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $155.50

I'm never folding this. Move down in stakes if you're playing scared. I also wouldn't have bet the flop so hard. More like ~$22

Originally Posted by andr3w321

I'm never folding this. Move down in stakes if you're playing scared. I also wouldn't have bet the flop so hard. More like ~$22

I dont think betting $4 less would make a difference, in a 3way pot I dont really see anything wrong with potting this, thats not really the issue here.

At the time I think I was playing with scared money, not really because of the stakes but because of the losses leading up to it. But yea, I know what you were saying and this was going to be my last orbit anyways, because I knew my mental state was affecting my play.

What can we put him on here that we beat? AK is the only hand I can think of, am I putting him on too narrow a range?

How much had you been raising and reraising pre flop? How many hands are the stats over (I like a big sample for AF stats)?

So far I like most of your reasoning, except that it implies you should either bet less or on the flop or pot it and not be worried about going all in on the turn, because this is basically a WA WB flop.

A tight passive might have AK, and less likely, A9/Q9 and AJ (KK?), but not much else that you beat while you're beat by 99/QQ and less likely AA. It is a sorta odd set line to call flop and lead the turn, but kinda makes sense in such a bloated pot, it looks clear he wants to play for stacks.

Tough spot but I lean toward pushing the turn, or being a nit with a flop 1/2 pot followed by check behind or call and playing only a medium pot. If the board was more coordinated and/or villain had a wider range then AK/AQ/QQ/99/AA weighted toward QQ/99, it would be different.

Originally Posted by benny999

How much had you been raising and reraising pre flop? How many hands are the stats over (I like a big sample for AF stats)?

So far I like most of your reasoning, except that it implies you should either bet less or on the flop or pot it and not be worried about going all in on the turn, because this is basically a WA WB flop.

A tight passive might have AK, and less likely, A9/Q9 and AJ (KK?), but not much else that you beat while you're beat by 99/QQ and less likely AA. It is a sorta odd set line to call flop and lead the turn, but kinda makes sense in such a bloated pot, it looks clear he wants to play for stacks.

Tough spot but I lean toward pushing the turn, or being a nit with a flop 1/2 pot followed by check behind or call and playing only a medium pot. If the board was more coordinated and/or villain had a wider range then AK/AQ/QQ/99/AA weighted toward QQ/99, it would be different.

At this table I was pretty cold decked and was playing maybe 15/8ish, so nothing ridiculous and this was my first 3bet. Stats were over 100 hands and so the aggression may not be accurate and I think that could be a huge factor to sway my decision from folding to pushing. He was tight enough that I didnt think 2pair was a possibility at all and felt he would have folded KK on that flop in that situation or atleast not lead the turn like that. I really thought the only hand I beat was AK, and took his aggression stats for more than they were probably worth, but who knows. My "standard" bet on the flop is to simply pot it, so with this board and a multiway pot I didnt want to change it up, it also would allow me to get my chips in pretty easily on the turn. My plan was to pot it and then push the turn when I would most likely be checked to, or push over a bet made by the UTG player; however, the BB leading totally threw me off.

Actually, 26 vpip is not too tight to discount A9/AJ too much, except that you hadn't been raising/reraising much at all, so if he is aware, his range has to be real tight, like mostly 2pair/set. I just think the flop psb priced you into pushing or calling a turn push unless he's like 15 vpip also. I mean, maybe I'm way off here, but big calls and bets on a dry board from a tight passive do not make me so confident in 2 pair either, but imo it's still worth showing down as played.

Wow, it's a very interesting question.

Given his very tight raising range, let’s put him on AQ+/99+. Since he’s tight, and you’ve played tight and this is the first reraise you’ve done, he would likely think “AA/KK/AK”. Your pot size bet on the flop doesn’t mean anything to them as both villains are thinking it’s a c-bet (vs. a value bet because you hit the flop hard).

On the turn there are, effectively, only 5 different hands villain can have, AA (1 way), AK (8 ways), AQ (2 ways), QQ (1 way), 99 (3 ways). Against this range you are roughly 13% tie, 52% win, 35% lose. The pot is more than compensating you to call.

Where it gets interesting, is that, from the villains perspective he is heavily favored against you if he has AK, as he would think you have AA (1 way), AK (6 ways), KK (6 ways). Villain thinks he has a 46% tie, 46% win and 8% loss. (Or, he “feels like you have to have KK”.) and bets accordingly.

I think his aggression factor is very misleading because the majority of the time he sees a flop he limped/called.

Finally, I say call any non-K river bet.

Originally Posted by benny999

Actually, 26 vpip is not too tight to discount A9/AJ too much, except that you hadn't been raising/reraising much at all, so if he is aware, his range has to be real tight, like mostly 2pair/set. I just think the flop psb priced you into pushing or calling a turn push unless he's like 15 vpip also. I mean, maybe I'm way off here, but big calls and bets on a dry board from a tight passive do not make me so confident in 2 pair either, but imo it's still worth showing down as played.

I agree with what you are saying except for putting A9/AJ in his range. He may limp those hands, or call a raise with AJ but to call a 3bet when the original raise from from UTG and I hadnt 3bet yet this session I am confident he'd fold A9, AJ is a possibility but I dont think he'd play it this strong. After looking over this hand again I think I would be up against AK enough to make this profitable but I do think it is fairly close, I think I put too much weight on his AGG after so "few" hands.

If I had 1000 hands on him and his aggression was the same, would this fold be alright?

I think you're right 90% of the time about the A9/AJ in his range thing, but I have seen extreme-donky cases of this or worse from ~30% vpips.

I also think you put too much weight on AF. I've had .5 or something like that after 50 maybe 100 hands, but over 1000+ it is closer to 3-4. The only thing is if my AF is low, I usually still have tag pf stats, so the 26/3 part of 26/3/.3 gives good credibility to being tight passive. A note on how he'd played a set or other actual reads would be better then relying on AF to dictate folding/pushing but I guess if it's ridiculous like .33 over 1000 then there's a real high chance he has one.

Originally Posted by benny999

I think you're right 90% of the time about the A9/AJ in his range thing, but I have seen extreme-donky cases of this or worse from ~30% vpips.

I also think you put too much weight on AF. I've had .5 or something like that after 50 maybe 100 hands, but over 1000+ it is closer to 3-4. The only thing is if my AF is low, I usually still have tag pf stats, so the 26/3 part of 26/3/.3 gives good credibility to being tight passive. A note on how he'd played a set or other actual reads would be better then relying on AF to dictate folding/pushing but I guess if it's ridiculous like .33 over 1000 then there's a real high chance he has one.

Yea, I think this is correct, I was playing scared after such a shitty session and use his unproven stats to justify my conclusion. Is a set likely here? Yes, but I think Ill see AK enough to make this profitable.

Opponent's line is really scary, but I still pay this one off.

Players who don't raise their hands preflop generally have trouble letting them go postflop. So it should be AK enough for the call to be correct.

I would just like to add that with deeper stacks I may be able to make this fold but certainly not for one buyin. I'm also probably still calling that turn bet regardless.

isnt qq a possibility here, 2 bets cold preflop so to speak?
Actually what about aa?
i agree with johnny that AK is possible here too

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

isnt qq a possibility here, 2 bets cold preflop so to speak?
Actually what about aa?
i agree with johnny that AK is possible here too

Right that is exactly what I was worried about, I thought even though I had an ace and a queen, QQ or AA for him was very likely, 99 was a possiblity as well. I think AK is in his range, but Im just not sure if it would take this line and I took his aggression factor probably for more than it was worth.

But yea anyways, read my logic because thats basically exactly what I said in my OP.

I think this is AK waaaaaasy too often to fold. If you lose this, chalk it up as variance. Not going broke here without some sick mega read is terrible. Somebody's AF being low has nothing to do with this hand in particular, he could easily be overplaying AK or a worse aces up.

Hands like these are why you have a bankroll.

Originally Posted by aislephive

I think this is AK waaaaaasy too often to fold. If you lose this, chalk it up as variance. Not going broke here without some sick mega read is terrible. Somebody's AF being low has nothing to do with this hand in particular, he could easily be overplaying AK or a worse aces up.

Hands like these are why you have a bankroll.

Do you think he ever has a worse aces up here or atleast often enough to really consider it? I think I should have pushed here and would see AK enough to be profitable but I dont think a worse aces up [meaning A9] is ever going to be shown to me. He smoothcalled a 3bet OOP preflop and is somewhat tight and very passive, I really think his range is AKx, QQ, AA.

Completely disregarding the sample size, why wouldnt his low AF have anything to do with this hand? Wouldnt his low factor mean that he would be much less likely to overplay a hand like this or atleast with a line like this? If he had a higher AF I would have talked myself out of the weak tight mindset I was in and called because it would have been much easier to put him on a weaker hand. With this AF if he were to overplay a hand wouldnt it be much much more likely it would be by calling too many [or too large] bets instead of making the bets himself? In this situation specifically his AF may not have a huge correlation but I think that has to do with the sample its over.

If my read was over 1k hands, or x number of hands where we would see fairly accurate stats, and we were 200BBs deep, how would you play this hand?

Originally Posted by andy-akb

Originally Posted by aislephive

I think this is AK waaaaaasy too often to fold. If you lose this, chalk it up as variance. Not going broke here without some sick mega read is terrible. Somebody's AF being low has nothing to do with this hand in particular, he could easily be overplaying AK or a worse aces up.

Hands like these are why you have a bankroll.

Do you think he ever has a worse aces up here or atleast often enough to really consider it? I think I should have pushed here and would see AK enough to be profitable but I dont think a worse aces up [meaning A9] is ever going to be shown to me. He smoothcalled a 3bet OOP preflop and is somewhat tight and very passive, I really think his range is AKx, QQ, AA.

Completely disregarding the sample size, why wouldnt his low AF have anything to do with this hand? Wouldnt his low factor mean that he would be much less likely to overplay a hand like this or atleast with a line like this? If he had a higher AF I would have talked myself out of the weak tight mindset I was in and called because it would have been much easier to put him on a weaker hand. With this AF if he were to overplay a hand wouldnt it be much much more likely it would be by calling too many [or too large] bets instead of making the bets himself? In this situation specifically his AF may not have a huge correlation but I think that has to do with the sample its over.

If my read was over 1k hands, or x number of hands where we would see fairly accurate stats, and we were 200BBs deep, how would you play this hand?

Passive players still share the same faulty trait that many players do of overvaluing one and even two pair hands. AK is a very likely hand, and AQ is also in his range to split. A 1/2 pot bet on the turn by him doesn't nessicarilly mean MONSTER, it could be a vulnerable hand he wants info if his hand is good. I agree with you that other than AK, there is little in his range you beat, but I DO think this is AK a TON. If he has a set here that's poker, but I just can't see folding this hand here.

If stacks were 200xbb deep I would probably go into call down mode, shoving the river if I hit a boat obviously. I just don't give 100nl players a lot of credit in general, and in 6 max hands like top two pair / sets I'm like never folding on a dry board for 100xbbs. That's basically what it comes down to. Him having the case two aces or queens is just sick luck as is top two vs bottom set. Online you really don't get as great of reads as you think you do. If this happened live there would be a chance I could find a fold vs a tight player at full ring who was giving off tells like mad.