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$22HUSNG - Turning a Made Hand Into a Bluff
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 23 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (2 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Villain (SB) (t1425)
Hero (BB) (t1575)
Hero's M: 10.50
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q , 7
Villain calls t50, Hero checks
Flop: (t200) J , 7 , 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets t100, Hero calls t100
Turn: (t400) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets t200, Hero calls t200
River: (t800) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets t1175 (All-In)
Total pot: t800
Villain had been really weak all game, but was recently starting to get much more aggressive preflop with his 3bets, from almost none ever, with smaller sizing, to a decent amount of shoves when I minraised, as the blinds increased. This suggests that he was adjusting, though if it was only a pf adjustment and he wasn't getting cute postflop as well, I was (and still am) unsure.
To this point, he had only double barreled once, which I folded to, but he had bigger bet-sizing when he did, and it was in the form of a flop and turn donk bet on a K-high, dry board after I raised pf.
I figure that he may have a bluff a decent amount of the time on the flop, on the turn, his small bet-sizing entices me to call and try to hit a flush/2pair against what looks very much like Jx, plus maybe see a free showdown on the tiny chance he decided to bluff.
On the river, I think that he can't really call me with any value hand (weak jack) that bets small for two streets when checked to, plus on the 1% chance that he was bluffing, he folds those too.
I think he would raise pf with a hand such as AJ, KJ, etc, since he had been raising pf through the game IP, but playing extremely fit or fold OOP, which weights his range even further from strong jacks.
Thoughts? I'm pretty unfamiliar with the act of turning SD value into bluffs, since the obvious opportunity comes up so very rarely. I'm confident I made the right decision in this hand, against his range and likely manner of playing that range, but I'd like to expand my game and find other opportunities for this sort of thing, so I figured I'd post this and see if anyone says anything that will turn on a light bulb in my head.
My current idea is that we should consider turning a made hand into a bluff when it's apparent that our SD value is actually no good, and our opponent's proclivity to folding means he will fold a better. That's pretty much, "lol, duh, obviously," though, so I'm wondering if there might be a deeper way to think about this.
Oh, and what do we do if we hit our flush or trips/2pair on the river? Underbet? He shouldn't be calling a large bet with anything we beat here, I would think, and a weak jack probably checks back on a flush, board-pairing, or queen river.
EDIT: Actually just realized what it is I really want to know: Against what kinds of lines/ranges should we do this sort of thing? Thin value-bettors? I feel like it's a bad idea against a polarized range, since you only get called when you're beaten and stuff you would beat anyway just folds.
And a random thought: Could this be considered the complement of merging your range for value? Say you bet with a hand that is better than their best bluff catcher. Should I think of made-hand-bluffing as betting with a hand that is worse than their best bluff catcher? Still trying to wrap my head around this. I feel like I just had an epiphany but don't actually know what it is I've just realized.
EDIT 2: Do you feel it's necessary to randomly do this on occasion against better players to keep my range balanced or just do so on occasions where it is expected to show an immediate profit?
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