$25 NL, TPNK vrs river push

Villian is 58/18 and I've been playing with him on 2 tables for about 300.


Fires a solid continuation bet into any flop he raises preflop
On flops he didn't raise preflop in, he bets $.50 w/ TP and .25 with 2nd pair or a draw
checks air.
His turn bets are always weaker than his flop bets without hands *really weak bluffs*.
His rarely bets the river and always for value when he does






PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($38.25)
Hero ($41.15)
BB ($25)
UTG ($91.85)
MP ($38)
CO ($24)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T, J.
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, CO raises to $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.65, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.50.

Flop: ($2.50) 4, J, 5 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25, UTG folds.

Turn: ($5) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75.

River: ($6.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $21.25 (All-In), Hero ....



Preflop: he has 2 cards, and I have no folding equity preflop as he calls 3bets 90% of the time.

Flop: I'm about 80% sure my hands is good, he folds to aggression post flop so I check/call waiting for the turn.

Turn: he bets even weaker, I'm 100% sure that my hand is best here, but I still have a marginal hand and I don't really built a big pot oop.

River: wtf........... this push is totally out of character from anything he has done in the last 300 hands. I know how he plays aa/kk and sets and this isn't it.

So the question is when you have a great read on someones betting patterns for every street and then they do something far far outside their normal pattern. Can you assume its a bluff?

In my 15k hands at 25nl a player with these stats making this move is usually a bluff. However the weakish bets on the flop and especially turn scare me a little, but i think you have to go with your read. I'd probably call. Although I'd raise the flop or turn because that way you avoid spots like this. Your hand is not strong enough to slowly reel him in.

what meele said

I think it's to risky to call here. Wait for a better spot vs this donk.

I would fold pre, but why not C/R flop or at least turn? I would fold river as played I guess but I think you could have easily gained info. from earlier streets.

Have you seen him play monsters before? I think this is very rarely ever a bluff, especially on this board.

Wait for a better spot, looks like he backed into the flush or something.

Btw that's one of the most comprehensive reads I've ever heard of lol.. can someone really be THIS predictable?

Originally Posted by mike4066

His rarely bets the river and always for value when he does

Why would you assume otherwise in this hand?

mike4066 wrote:
His rarely bets the river and always for value when he does

I don't think you can assume this with a 300 hand sample at these stakes. Especially when the bet is out of character on the river.

i like a c/r on the flop. anyways as played i fold river. turn may have been a cheap attempt to block to see river? river completes the flush and the straight.

Am I missing something? Doesn't this hand hit the bill for all the things you observed about him?

He C-bet the flop decently...

He weakly bet the turn which you said he does with weak hands... and a lot of weak hands connect with that river. Gutter straights, weird two pairs, even a small flush.

You then said he only value bets the river when he has it... and he bet the river here... albeit a huge overbet.

I assume his value bets on the river were mostly moderately sized before and thats why this throws you off?

I think you have only made obeservations that support a fold...