$50nl AQs 200bb deep I go apeshit on the turn

Sorry didn't have PT running, Villain is 18/12 and a winning player over 5k hands.

I have $102
Villain covers

Hero opens :Ad: :Qd: to $2 UTG, MP calls, Villain calls OTB, BB comes along

Flop ($8.25):
BB checks, Hero bets $7, MP folds, BTN calls, BB folds

Turn ($22.25) :Kh:
Hero checks, BTN bets $18, Hero shoves ($75 to call)

So this is a 2part question:
1. Is this any good?
2. Being a 3:1 dog when behind, how often does villain have to fold this for this play to work?

it looks like he has KJ or maybe a set to me, unless hes the type to float weak stuff like this.
if he has 2pr, then it's not gonna work often enough.

x= chance he folds
equation for the EV breakeven point:

x (40,25) + (1-x) [ (0.25)(133,25) + (0,75) (-93)]=0

solved for x leads to x=47.5%

So he has to fold atleast half the time for this to be +EV.

does the 1/2 the time fold EV+ take into account the cards? I mean we have the nut flush draw and the gut, with a possible A counting as another out (however unlikely he calls with just Kx) - so when he calls and we hit, does this factor in? or is it just the money going into the pot?

FWIW, i've been doing this exact play too much and pushing the turn with a big semi-bluff...its been turning into spewage 100% of the time over my small sample size

I don't mind it, assuming he's halfway decent. But I prefer a second barrel. He should usually be raising a set on this flop multi-way, so I put him mainly on a jack or worse flush draw. You're folding jacks except KJ and you have outs vs. that, but you're probably losing a little bit of value vs. worse flush draws since he's only calling this with Kdxd.

Originally Posted by LimpinAintEZ

does the 1/2 the time fold EV+ take into account the cards? I mean we have the nut flush draw and the gut, with a possible A counting as another out (however unlikely he calls with just Kx) - so when he calls and we hit, does this factor in? or is it just the money going into the pot?

I took the premises of his post. We'll win the pot if villain folds, if he calls we're 25% to win the pot.

I feel like this is the type of fancy play that ends up being spewy, mainly because it's multiway. After a few folds, we're usually left with a villain with a decent hand.

I feel like a smart player calls you here, wondering why the heck you are pushing a good hand on the turn.

I'd rather just lead the turn and we get an opportunity to win right there, or potentially take the whole stack if we hit our river

I expect him to fold 1pr hands easily here 100% of the time. I expect him to call with any 2pr+. So his calling range is 22/44/JJ/KJo/KJs (KK is out b/c of his stats)

Here is what I take this line with:

AA/KK/AK/22/44/JJ/12+out draws

Let's see how his calling range looks against my range:
20,196 games 0.005 secs 4,039,200 games/sec

Board: 2s Jd 4d Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.462% 31.46% 00.00% 6354 0.00 { KK+, JJ, 44, 22, AKs, AdQd, AKo }
Hand 1: 68.538% 68.54% 00.00% 13842 0.00 { JJ, 44, 22, KJs, KJo }

So his calling range is more than a 2:1 favorite against my range here (non-discounted). What does that really mean though?

At the time I felt he had to fold 50% of the time to make it profitable, now I am not so sure.

Originally Posted by zook

I don't mind it, assuming he's halfway decent. But I prefer a second barrel. He should usually be raising a set on this flop multi-way, so I put him mainly on a jack or worse flush draw. You're folding jacks except KJ and you have outs vs. that, but you're probably losing a little bit of value vs. worse flush draws since he's only calling this with Kdxd.

quick theory question about this - I found for awhile there that my sets were just not getting paid off at all - So in multiway pots I would often just call someone elses bet on the flop, hoping that others would stay in drawing, then hope that the flush didn't complete on the turn before I popped it up - This seemed to do the trick better for building pots - As long as the flop betting was giving incorrect odds to draw at the flush, I figured it was worth it to win a big pot, and if the flush hit on the turn and players went nuts I would go ahead and lay down - so I was taking a chance that I might have to get out on the turn, but it was enabling the pot to get built up pretty big by the river - In Harrington's book (tourney of course) he said as long as you were making people pay the incorrect price, you were playing right -

So can we assume that a set is raising us on this flop? I found that at $50NL i've needed to slow down on my bigger hands and let people get commited in order to win bigger pots - Again, sometimes the flush hits and its time to then decide what to do, but often if your charging the flush too much it seems like its the right play to "slow down" - as long as your not giving proper odds and don't pay off when the draw hits -

according the the stove, it looks like we are only getting called by better hands here, and when we are more than 2:1 dogs anytime we get called, its plain old spewage....

on the other hand, the check raise when the King hits the turn is a strong line - if we raise, we have to put in at least $36 which is 1/2 of what we got left - seems like at that point the ck/push is the best play - even if its a semi bluff, its a strong move and I like it -

then again, sometimes I make these moves just to tell people to quit fucking with me....even when they haven't been

I'd definately double barrel here, but that's not too great either.. you're not really getting paid off if you suddenly shove the river when the flush hits.

Oh and to be clear. If we shove here and he folds his weaker hands (50% of the time), and calls with a range that has us a 3:1 or 2:1 dog (other 50%), it's still +EV. It's just that, a double barrel might be more +EV, accomplishing the same thing but a bit cheaper..

But if we double barrell we have to play all the streets...YUUUUUUUUUUUCKKKKKKKKKKK

I don't hate this play, but my first reaction is that it'd be better to just bet $16 yourself and then overbet shove any river except for maybe an A or a J. Not sure about that though, good hand to post.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

But if we double barrell we have to play all the streets...YUUUUUUUUUUUCKKKKKKKKKKK

agreed - and this is when its bad - if we hit A then we are still probably beat and only have $35-40 behind in a $140 pot now....

so no consensus?

I think an important factor here also is that I play an extremely similar type game (17/12) that villain does and we never tangle much. He can be a bit of a calling station and does not make many plays. I don't see him float much and he plays pretty ABC. This leads me to believe that if he has a set/draw on the flop he is raising those hands.

The question here is truly which play has more fold equity against AJ/KQ/AK/QJ type hands? The obv answer there is the c/bomb. However, the question then becomes is the increase in FE from c/r compared to b/3bomb enough to make up for the loss of equity when the c/bomb gets called?

how often is he betting strong like that when a king comes with just a jack?
i think most abc players just check J-x behind...

what do you think of KdTd?

ya hed prob bet that...not sure if he folds it but prob should...

just saying i dont think a ton of hands from an abc tag are bet-folding that card.

Originally Posted by LimpinAintEZ

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

But if we double barrell we have to play all the streets...YUUUUUUUUUUUCKKKKKKKKKKK

agreed - and this is when its bad - if we hit A then we are still probably beat and only have $35-40 behind in a $140 pot now....

Not sure where you got those numbers but if we bet the $18 like villain did, we'll have $75 behind on the river.. problem is if we get raised on the turn..

i was going with the ck/raise line, putting in $36 after villain bets $18 leaving us roughly $40 left and the pot is that big....taking that line, it seems better to just push $75 giving us more chance that he folds, and if he calls we still have the same outs....whereas if we just ck/raise, we might have to call river anyway if we hit TP or something, just based on the pot size....