1/2 AA flop top set

opp 22/20/3.7 with 3bet 8%
fold to cbet 68%

i think despite having the 2nd nuts here i made a mistake by shoving the turn. because we have top set it's very hard for him to have hit 2 pair, so that really just leaves him with JJJ or 666 ? he might even 3bet JJ pre as I'd been pretty aggro at this table.

do you call turn and lead river here?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Hero ($236.75)
CO Henneth ($197.00)
BTN azazel26 ($252.35)
SB JeePee69 ($214.45)
BB pokerhein ($398.10)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $7, Henneth calls $7, 3 folds

Flop: ($17, 2 players)
Hero bets $12, Henneth calls $12

Turn: ($41, 2 players)
Hero bets $32, Henneth raises to $64, Hero raises to $217.75, Henneth calls $114

Final Pot: $436.75

standard really. plenty of his value raising range we beat so get it in, if he is bluffing then he only has semibluffs which probably call off a shove anyway given odds.

kinda hate the word standard really...

regs DONT make minraises on strong bets v often at all, this could be alarming... for instance, if he's semi-bluffing some sort of big draw i think a reg NEVER makes it this small... also you say his value range, well that's basically only 666 and sometimes JJJ right? when we hold AAA its extremely unlikely he has hands like AJ or AT here, and TJ isn't very likely either

is anybody else reading into it this way?

do some poker stove on his value raising range please. hands that are unlikely still exist.

this IS standard bcoz its a fairly simple hand.

Is bluffing range is tiny imo here so no need to call his turn range since he will ship turn more than river.

AT,AJ,etc.

can someone tell me how to do the math on this, I just think that because i have a set of AAA it's soooo rare that he has AT/AJ or any ace here ever, and it's also rare for him to have a set ... yea I have the 2nd nuts here but isn't it MUCH more likely that he has KQ here than ANY of these other hands combined?

is it because i'm losing every single time with monsters because they have the stone cold nuts and the fact that i'm 4.6k behind EV in two weeks??

Math on what? Combos? This is an easy combos part and if you wanted to cheat just open PokerStove. It's a pretty clear standard hand.

ISF, Massimo, Renton, Alexos, Griffey, Melooche...

what would you say the specifics might be of a reg minraising here, it's just not something I see, I would be happier if he made a larger raise here to get it in..

No one will ever tell you to fold this.

Your only two options are shoving turn or calling turn and c/c all rivers.

If you call turn, and check river you let him check back any marginal close hands that he might be raise/calling on the turn (JT/Jxhh, Axhh etc)

If you call turn and he has a straight you're c/c'ing anyhow, so stacking off the KQ anyhow.

If you shove, you stack off to KQ the same as you would had you called, but at least you make any/all of his range that you beat pay on the turn.

Sometimes for 100bb's you're just gonna run into setup hands where you gotta go busto. If this was deeper, I suppose there could be some merit to call and c/c river line.

thank you very much.

I suppose the part that is interesting here is the fact that a reg minraised this spot, maybe it doesn't mean much to most, i just dont see this very often at all. i'm not sure if you could read into that in any way..

locked, come on did you think i was punking you?