1/2 AQo oop vs fish

opp is 31/10/2.8
fold to cbet 40%

basically just interested in sizing comments. ty

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG IThinkICall ($395.00)
UTG+1 fxs ($192.80)
CO mb1973 ($142.80)
BTN GuilhermeOSA ($236.70)
SB NICORSINOU ($230.05)
BB Hero ($200.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB
2 folds, mb1973 calls $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $8, mb1973 calls $6

Flop: ($17, 2 players)
Hero bets $13, mb1973 calls $13

Turn: ($43, 2 players)
Hero bets $26, mb1973 calls $26

River: ($95, 2 players)
Hero bets $35, mb1973 calls $35

Final Pot: $165

i don't see any reason to bet so small on the turn and river. i'd make it 35 on the turn so u could shove the river. he's not playing 99/QJ any differently if u use smaller betsizing on the turn/river.

I probably make it slightly higher on turn but would still look for a smallish (relatively) river bet. I agree his QX hands call regardless, but not sure about his 99/JJ/T9/TJ hands.

do whatever size so you can shove river
if he was 100BB deep, we'd have concerns about slowplayed 8s and shit and maybe we'd go smaller because we don't want to put in like 70BBs to fold for 30BB more on the river

Originally Posted by bjsaust

I probably make it slightly higher on turn but would still look for a smallish (relatively) river bet.

Saved me posting.

Just size it so that you have all his money in the pot by the river, i.e. bet turn harder then shove river.

I don't really agree w/ everyone saying make sure you size it big enough so you get his whole stack by the river. Both fish and nits are catching on to this now, they realize that if you are gunning for their whole stack they should get out of the way more often, that's why it's better to do it as a bluff. I like the line of trying to get most of his stack but not all, it tends to succeed much more frequently IME.

Also I likely would have checked this turn, my double barrel range in this spot for value is very very narrow (meaning I expect him to fold a ton--or raise--when I bet here). My plan on the flop would have been to bet flop check turn to induce calls from his floats, and if he checks behind turn to bet like 4/5 pot to value town his TT/99/77/Qx on the river.

Originally Posted by Marshall28

I don't really agree w/ everyone saying make sure you size it big enough so you get his whole stack by the river. Both fish and nits are catching on to this now, they realize that if you are gunning for their whole stack they should get out of the way more often, that's why it's better to do it as a bluff. I like the line of trying to get most of his stack but not all, it tends to succeed much more frequently IME.

Also I likely would have checked this turn, my double barrel range in this spot for value is very very narrow (meaning I expect him to fold a ton--or raise--when I bet here). My plan on the flop would have been to bet flop check turn to induce calls from his floats, and if he checks behind turn to bet like 4/5 pot to value town his TT/99/77/Qx on the river.

I think Qx pays off a river shove AS PLAYED
I see fish show up with like KQ/QJ here all day and they're not folding top pair for 70BBs
that's 24 combos that will pay you off
99/77 is only 12 additional combos and he may STILL call the turn if we barrel and fold river with them, gaining us the same amount

are we folding the fish like pots turn and shoves river taking your line?

Originally Posted by Marshall28

I don't really agree w/ everyone saying make sure you size it big enough so you get his whole stack by the river. Both fish and nits are catching on to this now, they realize that if you are gunning for their whole stack they should get out of the way more often, that's why it's better to do it as a bluff. I like the line of trying to get most of his stack but not all, it tends to succeed much more frequently IME.

I've been playing around with this too. But my reasoning wasn't that they're reading our bet size intentions. I thought it was more that they see their whole stack at risk. If they can call and still have like 10bb or whatever they're more likely to oblige since they generally don't have BR's they can keep reloading from. Plus I love it when they're left with almost nothing, run super amazing as they now have the run-hot of both a shortstack and fish combined, and before you know it, the table has refilled your prize.

i'm not so sure that i'm getting called by hands other than Queens here on the turn and especially river.

the bet flop, check turn, bet river is interesting, however with the FISH i'm not too worried about floats and turn bluffs etc, i would play this differently against a reg.

i see a LOT of fish just calling with an 8 here and i end up value owning myself to the river, part of the reason i went with smaller bets on later streets.

how do you figure out this 24 combinations of QJ/KQ type stuff ? i would say just from guessing the fish shows up here just as often with a Q or an 8...

Originally Posted by bspahn

i'm not so sure that i'm getting called by hands other than Queens here on the turn and especially river.

the bet flop, check turn, bet river is interesting, however with the FISH i'm not too worried about floats and turn bluffs etc, i would play this differently against a reg.

i see a LOT of fish just calling with an 8 here and i end up value owning myself to the river, part of the reason i went with smaller bets on later streets.

how do you figure out this 24 combinations of QJ/KQ type stuff ? i would say just from guessing the fish shows up here just as often with a Q or an 8...

you're right, there's actually only 16 combos because we hold a queen

so let's say his pf range is:
99-22,AJs-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s,AJo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o
since he has a PFR I'm assuming he raises his best hands


Board: 8c Qd 8s 3s

Hand 0: 29.152% { 99-77, Ac8c, Ad8d, Ah8h, KcQc, KdQd, KsQs, QcJc, QdJd, QsJs, QcTc, QdTd, QsTs, Qc9c, Qd9d, Qs9s, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, T8s, 98s, 86s+, KcQd, KcQs, KdQc, KdQs, KhQc, KhQd, KhQs, KsQc, KsQd, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, QdJc, QdJh, QdJs, QsJc, QsJd, QsJh, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, QdTc, QdTh, QdTs, QsTc, QsTd, QsTh }
Hand 1: 70.848% { AsQh }

this is his range on the turn, I think he still calls with picked up spades if he peeled his gutshot on the flop

Board: 8c Qd 8s 3s Th

Hand 0: 48.571% { 88, Ac8c, Ad8d, Ah8h, KcQc, KdQd, KsQs, QcJc, QdJd, QsJs, QcTc, QdTd, QsTs, Qc9c, Qd9d, Qs9s, Js9s, T8s, 98s, 86s+, KcQd, KcQs, KdQc, KdQs, KhQc, KhQd, KhQs, KsQc, KsQd, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, QdJc, QdJh, QdJs, QsJc, QsJd, QsJh, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, QdTc, QdTh, QdTs, QsTc, QsTd, QsTh }
Hand 1: 51.429% { AsQh }


so actually according to these ranges you should bet the turn big because we're ahead and we don't want him to get a free card with Jh9h that he would fold to a turn bet
and then block river or c/c if you think he could bluff spades or something (read dependent)