1/2: crazy river spot in squeezed pot

Villain is a 30/24 reg. Is there value in betting the river if I'm not calling this?

SB ($300)
Hero ($383)
UTG ($208)
CO ($247)
BTN ($200)

Dealt to Hero J J
UTG raises to $6, fold, BTN calls $6, fold, Hero raises to $26, UTG calls $20, fold

FLOP ($59) 6 Q 5
Hero checks, UTG bets $34, Hero calls $34

TURN ($127) 6 Q 5 T
Hero checks, UTG checks

RIVER ($127) 6 Q 5 T 7
Hero bets $52, UTG raises to $148 (AI), Hero? ($96 to call)

I would rather bet/check/bet with this particular hand than c/c /ck/bet where we don't have many bluffs.

I don't think many ppl would run villains line with a bluff, so I'd just b/f.

you basically played your hand in such a way that it looks like you have exactly what you have...

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

you basically played your hand in such a way that it looks like you have exactly what you have...

Are you sure that's a bad thing?

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Are you sure that's a bad thing?

I think it may be if you are not sure how to respond to villains river action as played, otherwise no.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

I think it may be if you are not sure how to respond to villains river action as played, otherwise no.

I wouldn't bet against an american fwiw.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Is there value in betting the river if I'm not calling this?

No, don't bet river.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

No, don't bet river.

So I snap this shove now that I did, yes?

Originally Posted by pocketfours

So I snap this shove now that I did, yes?

It seems that you have more info than you posted, because river looks like check

the board is dry enough for him to check turn with sets and even QTs, which are all in their range incl 77 because its eurosites.

so yeah your river bet is just bad, c/f.

Actually he is a quite spewy aggro and I just played this hand against him a few minutes earlier.

SB ($340)
BB ($210)
UTG ($224)
UTG+1 ($303)
CO ($343)
Hero ($192)

Dealt to Hero 3 4
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $5, SB raises to $15, fold, Hero calls $10

FLOP ($32) 5 Q 7
SB bets $16, Hero calls $16

TURN ($64) 5 Q 7 9
SB bets $35, Hero raises to $161 (AI), SB calls $126

RIVER ($386) 5 Q 7 9 8
Hero shows 3 4
(Pre 39%, Flop 57.1%, Turn 84.1%)
SB shows A K
(Pre 61%, Flop 42.9%, Turn 15.9%)
Hero wins $383

i think bet/ checksoulread/ bet is the best line for this spot usually

Originally Posted by sauce123

i think bet/ checksoulread/ bet is the best line for this spot usually

My flop analysis based on gameflop and history concluded that villain is probably very wide and has a high willingness to bluff. I was afraid that he would simply give up his air to a cbet so I decided to c/c down no matter what falls.

I was surprised by his turn check, but I couldn't imagine that he would have a better hand than mine with any significant frequency as I would have expected him to got bet bet shove with KQ+.

river check/call seems best with JJ there, leaves his range with more airy bluffs.. in my experience that kinda of river raise usually means villain has a set.. or a straight on that board but i'm leaving 89 out of his range since he's UTG. 77 seems very possible so i'd fold.

the second hand you posted the villain doesnt spew the same way, he's cbet/double barrelling AK and he calls a shove with a nut draw.. thats a very different story to him shoving the river with air.

I should've looked at this hand in totally so that being said I think Sauce posted the best line.

I'd fold to a raise here as played.

I called and was shown A4cc. Do we like his jam?

we do not like his jam.. ur worst hand here is like JJ and I don't expect anyone to fold Qx either.

if we're betting river it's to get value from what exactly? don't see much other than 88-99 and stack sizes r awkward enough that he can def check sets, 2pr, Qx on turn. If he had 250 left then id discount the previous hands a lot.

The reason to bet the river isn't so he'll call with worse, it's too induce. We're hoping he weights our range towards what we have and shoves a range that is unbalanced towards bluffs here. I'm quite surprised he showed up with A4s, but seeing that he did makes us way ahead of his range after he checks the turn, so he doesn't need to bluff that with many of his hands in order to make this profitable.

As for whether we like his jam...meh, depends what he thinks of you, but erring on the side of no after recent AK hand...he must know his own image. Looks to me like he called preflop with the intention of trying to bluff you postflop at some point regardless and wanted to get the last bet in, which could be why he didnt bet the turn when checked too, because then he might lose the battle of the air if you C/R?

I don't believe in these wild bedtime stories of aggro tilted regs checking back sets on the turn.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

I don't believe in these wild bedtime stories of aggro tilted regs checking back sets on the turn.

heh, +1

+1 on not liking A4cc jam either ...

best bluff line for him here is bet/b/b

I think betting the river is too thin. Crazy that he ended up bluffing the river like that, you euros play insane!