1/2 draw do we call twice

opp is 20/16/8.1
stat says he barrels 42%

do we like to call twice here, do we fold somewhere or do we prefer getting it in on the turn for max FE ?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG sebroberto ($447.55)
UTG+1 dragonikke ($185.78)
CO Hero ($192.00)
BTN @alfakrull@ ($214.80)
SB Ugly_Kid ($86.40)
BB CIVA ($39.20)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO
sebroberto raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero calls $7, @alfakrull@ calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($24, 3 players)
sebroberto bets $22, Hero calls $22, @alfakrull@ folds

Turn: ($68, 2 players)
sebroberto bets $57, Hero calls $57

River: ($182, 2 players)
sebroberto bets $122

Final Pot: $304

Have you read Renton's ABCD Theorem post? it's stickied in the full ring forum... very excellent material you should check it out.

i think a flop raise is your best choice, this draw seems to fit in your "C" range. as played shoving the turn would be a good semibluff, depending on whether he's a station or not.

Is this is standard Cbet sizing? Very important detail

don't know if its normal cbet sizing.
do you guys write down every cbet a person makes and exactly how much $ went into every pot size and how many players were in the pot? i just dont know how I'm supposed to know this fact.

the guy has AF 8.1 so he's aggro as heck.
i discussed this with a 2/4 reg and he said basically he prefers a FOLD pre or a 3bet to "balance". if HE were to play it like this he'd fold the turn because we just dont have equity considering he could have anything. now he said this is BECAUSE the guy is super aggro, he'll flat hands like pp's and suited broadways, and then 3bet huge hands and sc's in this spot UNLESS the guy calls every 3bet or 4bets a ton.

the thing thats bothering me I guess is that every play and every hand depends on about fifty different things and I don't seem to know these fifty things, maybe i know 10/50 things.

I write down someone's cbet size any time they pot the flop or go under 1/2

btw this flop is so ripe for a raise
everyone is going to be like "lol, he's floating with garbage" and will bet the turn "scarecard"
but if we raise the flop we just get folds because regs are not used to facing IP raises, they're used to playing against floaters

if he calls he probably has Jx OR EVEN QQ+ because he's so afraid of a set that he doesn't want to get it in behind or flipping and we're checking the turn back realizing both fold equity and draw equity

i think your draw is strong enough to make calling ok, raising is a viable play too.

you could also argue for shoving turn, but I think his gifuckingnormous typed bet would compel me to just call.

and yes you should notice when someone makes a completely out of character betsize. cbet is the most common play in poker so you should have a mental track of the standard amounts people bet. if this was the first hand i played against villain I would have instantly thought "wow big cbet," and if this were the second hand I would know if it was out of character for him. not hard stuff.

After turning the gutter I'm calling down here always.

i think if this guy doesn't fold on the flop he's probably raising, i think he's probably got the highest AF for any reg on my site, at 8.1 ! so i'm not sure raising is the best choice.

my buddy also made an arguement yesterday that i can't profitably call this turn because the guy is such an aggro monkey that if i HIT my hand i'm not likely to get paid (unless he decides to bluff shove the river that hits me)

again i was told to either fold or 3bet pre and keep it simple.

say i 3bet this pre and this opp flats, and this flop comes, do you cbet or check behind? if you check behind and THIS turn comes, do you check behind or bet the turn (i'd think check flop, bet turn would be good?)

Originally Posted by bspahn

my buddy also made an arguement yesterday that i can't profitably call this turn because the guy is such an aggro monkey that if i HIT my hand i'm not likely to get paid (unless he decides to bluff shove the river that hits me)

ummm... what? your buddy is making no sense. If he's such an aggro monkey, then he'll probably triple barrel this river when you hit your card...

I think calling preflop is pretty standard in this spot. You have a hand that plays very well postflop, so why waste it on 3bet bluffing, when the likely outcome is villain folds or 4bets?

On the flop, we obviously can't raise for value. We have solid implied odds against a aggressive villain who is likely to barrel us often, as well as get it in somewhat light. Also given the fact that if we raise this flop he is likely either folding or 3betting, I think call is >>> raise.

On the turn we need 31% equity to have a BE call. I think it's kinda close between folding, calling, and shoving. Given the extra outs we picked up + the likely implied odds of villain barreling the river, or c/calling river, I believe a call > fold. And I agree with Renton that villain's betsizing compels me to call more than shove, as I feel his range is weighted a bit more towards value, which effectively decreases our fold equity, yet increases our implied odds.

how would we want to consider our turn draw if he can easily barrel with larger FD's etc here? how does that affect the math, or is it just too small of his range to really worry about? (say AQ/AKhh for instance)