1/2 - fold top top???

Villain is a bad reg running 20/14/3.3 over a lot of hands. He 3bets 3% from all positions c/r's flops 2% and turns 7% (small sample for the latter).

I think I can find one hand I beat that isn't a total spazout.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

SB ($200)
BB ($728.20)
Hero (UTG) ($200)
MP ($100)
Button ($200)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, A
Hero bets $9, 3 folds, BB calls $7

Flop: ($21) 7, K, 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $17, BB calls $17

Turn: ($55) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $38, BB raises to $78, Hero...

I'd go all-in, lose to a set and then go on tilt.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

I'd go all-in, lose to a set and then go on tilt.

Pretty much this. I guess A7s, A6s, AK??? fit...

[ ] top top

My playing style relies on my opponents spazzing out against me.

Board: 7s Ks 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.155% 44.15% 00.00% 6557 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 55.845% 55.85% 00.00% 8293 0.00 { 77-66, A7s-A6s, QsJs, 9s8s, 76s }

taking out the random spade hands we're still 42/58. With 1/3 of our stack in I probably stick it in here.

Originally Posted by bode

Board: 7s Ks 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.155% 44.15% 00.00% 6557 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 55.845% 55.85% 00.00% 8293 0.00 { 77-66, A7s-A6s, QsJs, 9s8s, 76s }

taking out the random spade hands we're still 42/58. With 1/3 of our stack in I probably stick it in here.

Has it become standard to defend BB against UTG open with A6s-A7s? I would certainly not raise turn with those either.

I think his range is mainly sets and SC's that have big combo draws or 2pair. I doubt he flats a6/a7 from the big blind but who knows.

I never fold this for 100 bbs on such a drawy board, EVER.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Originally Posted by bode

Board: 7s Ks 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.155% 44.15% 00.00% 6557 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 55.845% 55.85% 00.00% 8293 0.00 { 77-66, A7s-A6s, QsJs, 9s8s, 76s }

taking out the random spade hands we're still 42/58. With 1/3 of our stack in I probably stick it in here.

Has it become standard to defend BB against UTG open with A6s-A7s? I would certainly not raise turn with those either.

its def not standard, but OP said villain is a bad reg, and bad regs do dumb shit like call A6s/A7s in the blinds vs UTG raisers.

I don't think he has a combo draw hardly ever with his turn raise size. I'd expect a larger raise if he was going to semi-bluff.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

I don't think he has a combo draw hardly ever with his turn raise size. I'd expect a larger raise if he was going to semi-bluff.

Agree. But, he can have some other weird shit turned into a bluff, or a worse 2pair sometimes. I'd call and re-eval riv.

dont

Yeah I'm definitely not folding here vs this guy. I can't really decide if I want to get it in now or wait. I think it's close and since your in position I'd probably call turn although I don't hate getting it in.

Originally Posted by meeloche

Yeah I'm definitely not folding here vs this guy. I can't really decide if I want to get it in now or wait. I think it's close and since your in position I'd probably call turn although I don't hate getting it in.

can't fold river no matter what, so why wait? it would suck if he raised a draw and then c/f river when he doesn't hit

I realize that's a small part of his range, but what are the chances that he has total air and continues on the river by shoving it? we'd be getting crazy odds, $100 into a $400 pot, so like we're autocalling with almost anything? or do you think he spazzes and shoves air on the river anyway more often than he folds the river?

we're not unhappy with him folding the turn with a bare flush draw because he has 19% equity in the pot if he c/fs the river when he misses we'd like him to fold turn instead of realizing his full equity in the hand and having us pay him off because "he could have spades/he could have AQ" if say diamonds hit

I'd base it on timing. How long did he take to check to you on the flop? How long did he take to call the flop? How long did he take to check and raise the turn?

Basically I'm just trying to find out if this was a planned move or something sporadic. If his timing appears planned (longer than normal check on flop) (insta-checkraise on turn), then I figure he has a set and fold. If he snap checked the flop and took a while to determine to raise the turn, I'd likely go with it since it's more likely this is thin value or a big semi bluff.

Originally Posted by Alexos

Originally Posted by dsaxton

I don't think he has a combo draw hardly ever with his turn raise size. I'd expect a larger raise if he was going to semi-bluff.

Agree. But, he can have some other weird shit turned into a bluff, or a worse 2pair sometimes. I'd call and re-eval riv.

His turn raise size makes me think he doesn't have a good made hand, as why would he give you such a good price when the board is so draw heavy, and there are obviously lots of draws in your range?