1/2 rush: checkraised by passive fish

Vil here is 21/13 with 3% 3bet and 1.00 af over 120 hands.


BTN: $245.25
SB: $208.90
Hero (BB): $200.00
UTG: $193.00
MP: $255.45
CO: $124.55
SB posts SB $1.00, Hero posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero has A 9
fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $6.00, Hero calls $4.00

Flop: ($12.00, 2 players) A 7 9
SB bets $8.00, Hero raises to $27.60, SB calls $19.60

Turn: ($67.20, 2 players) Q
SB checks, Hero bets $47.00, SB raises to $175.30 and is all-in, Hero?

I played this hand vs him five minutes earlier. He tanked for pretty long before folding.

BTN: $271.40
SB: $397.60
BB: $153.15
UTG: $399.20
MP: $577.35
Hero (CO): $277.80
SB posts SB $1.00, BB posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero has T T
fold, fold, Hero raises to $6.00, fold, SB raises to $20.00, fold, Hero calls $14.00

Flop: ($42.00, 2 players) 5 A 3
SB bets $22.00, Hero raises to $52.00, SB calls $30.00

Turn: ($146.00, 2 players) 2
SB checks, Hero bets $80.00, fold
Hero wins $143.00

I think its a semi close call, pot odds + small chance of draw + possibility you are ahead of some of his value range.

At first glance I thought easy fold, then I saw 120 hands and I thought it was pretty close, then I saw the earlier hand and think it's an easy call.

Call

I hope you didn't fold the second nuts, getting 2:1 on this board bvb

Originally Posted by Alexos

I hope you didn't fold the second nuts, getting 2:1 on this board bvb

Second nuts? Looks like you forgot about them pocket queens...

No, I did make the crying call, but based on his stats, line and timings, my intuition was saying that he had hit that turn. I couldn't imagine that a passive fish would take this line as a bluff, especially with rhythmic timings. Sample size was small, but I had seen him open limp a few times.

I swear I was seeing images of a queen in my thoughts. I could hear the voice of some wise old man telling me I was beat. It was exactly like the famous words of Ben Kenobi: "Use the force, Luke. Let go, Luke. Luke, Trust me").

YouTube - ‪"Use the force, Luke."‬‏

This game is hard enough as it is, but to be distracted by the voice of Alec Guinnes, echoing in my head while trying to a make tough decision is just ridiculous.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

I think its a semi close call, pot odds + small chance of draw + possibility you are ahead of some of his value range.

Agree w/ this

sorry to be out of my league, but it would be wrong to assume that his turn range is AA,99,77,QQ,A7,AQ,79s,Q9s? cause vs this we have enough equity to call.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

sorry to be out of my league, but it would be wrong to assume that his turn range is AA,99,77,QQ,A7,AQ,79s,Q9s? cause vs this we have enough equity to call.

Yeah this is a decent range estimation but some parts of it are much more discounted than others. AQ and QQ clearly with the smallest discount (slowplays OOP on drawy boards are always pretty heavily discounted imo).

My read on his timings was that he hit the turn, which would make his range AQ, QQ, Q9cc, (with discount on Q9cc because of preflop and cbet). It's obviously risky to rely on timing reads vs unknown players and I'm not advocating that even.

Putting even a tiny bluffing range in there and this becomes a snap.

okay but 1) you mention nothing about timing in initial post. if you say timing is so that you can almost guarantee he hit it, thread becomes useless.. if not, we're discussing ranges here to justify our action

and 2) idk why he would be a passive fish, sample size seems inconclusive, and even then it's hard to discount TJdd Ktdd Qxdd AK AJ Q9 8Tdd which u kinda crush.

I can honestly say I have never folded this hand, in this spot to this player (really.. pretty much any player) ever in the last 5 yrs. Whether or not thats bad is a different question.

I've seen passive bad players show up with enough nonsense here that this is a call. Definitely seen A7 and Qxdd a fair bit in this spot playing the same way.

Originally Posted by Alexos

okay but 1) you mention nothing about timing in initial post. if you say timing is so that you can almost guarantee he hit it, thread becomes useless.. if not, we're discussing ranges here to justify our action

Ok so I was pretty damn sure about my read and still called. Vil shows up with Q9cc and leaves me confused about what the correct play was.

Originally Posted by Alexos

and 2) idk why he would be a passive fish, sample size seems inconclusive

As I pointed out, I had seen him open limp pre.

defenitely calling here, and punch a kitten if he has AQ or QQ

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

I think its a semi close call, pot odds + small chance of draw + possibility you are ahead of some of his value range.

+1 except i think its not unlikely he has a draw which picked up equity on the turn

Passive fish very rarely take this line with a draw.