1/2 £ deep on turbo-table, difficult river

Hi guys, not posted anything for a long time. Played an interesting hand a couple of days ago.

Villain is a good reg, uses to play higher up to 5/10 and a lot of heads up. He runs 27/22/12/7.0 highly aggro over a samplesize of 1K hands. I run 24//17/5.6/2.1. I play 0.5/1 and some 1/2.

I got my stack stacking fish with a set and betting TPTK vs fish. Also, dynamic between us is that i caught him bluffing vs me with 53o from bb, he 3 bet pf, bet A87 flop, 9 turn and checked a J river, i checked behind on the river from btn with AKo. Dont remember how he got his stack.

Nb! This is a turbotable, its in euros, u got about 8 sec. to act and no timebank. We play on atleast 3 tables together. His timing was about 3-4 second on each street.


No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($577.20)
SB ($233.25)
BB ($202)
UTG ($251)
MP ($815.22)
CO ($188.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 10

1 fold, MP bets $6, 1 fold, Hero calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($15) K, 9, 9 (2 players)
MP bets $10, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($35) 3 (2 players)
MP bets $44, Hero calls $44

River: ($123) 2 (2 players)
MP bets $600, Hero (517 behind) ??

I would probably fold here

- call it and be wrong is more than 250bb mistake and he can have those KK and 33

What's up with his turn bet?

Wow, shitty spot against a thinking player.

Wow thats pretty sick.

I mean, I gotta figure he's not over-betting the turn with K's full or 3's full. It just seems odd that he'd do that with a boat.

I suppose he might do that with A9.

He's already been caught sorta bluffing, so I feel like he's probably not bluffing here. This is a bad spot. Given his sizing, I suppose the times he has you beat outweigh the times he's value towning himself with this sizing or bluffing.

Crappy spot... I feel like we're folding our entire range here.... hmm...

Folding here. I don't expect a higher stakes player to be expecting a 200NL player to fold much of his 9x here especially since he's already seen him to be running multi street bluffs before. If he's bluffing, his motive has to be because he expects us to fold a lot of our 9s since he can fold out weaker here by overbetting much less.

The fact this is a turbo table though idk perhaps this makes we wanna call more just because of the frequency that hero times out in confusion and mucks. Bleh I prolly still fold though based on how very low I think his bluffing frequency is here.

Originally Posted by griffey24

I mean, I gotta figure he's not over-betting the turn with K's full or 3's full. It just seems odd that he'd do that with a boat.

Why do you think this??

- we can't have KK (raise pre), K9 (fold pre), 33 (fold on flop), so if has those he must be sure that it is nuts
- and we are probably fold FD or TT, etc. on the turn to "normal" size bet, but it's so hard to fold K or 9 here, so I think it is good to value bet big, if we are villain

Originally Posted by griffey24

Crappy spot... I feel like we're folding our entire range here.... hmm...

wow this is very good point

I call, which is also the reason why I will never get past 1/2.

i think if he expects us to fold a 9x or weaker a decent % time on the river vs this overbet, it is a call more often than fold.

However: as already mentioned , i don`t think he expects us to fold us 9x too often, esp vs "suspitios overbet", which makes it a fold here almost always. But this one is realy so dynamics and history based hand. Can go either way and you realy should be at the table

This is gross, I'd timeout

def fold, its close with A9 or 33

note- i think its okay to fold our whole range here for 3 reasons

1. he doesnt know we fold our whole range here

2. if his strategy is 'bluff shove for 5x pot 100% of the time with weak hands' or even 10% of the time, we can exploit the hell out of him once our sample increases. if his strategy is just to make a one time play of bluffshoving here knowing our range is weak that's still probably a poor play just because the bet is so huge relative to pot and he can't have perfect information of our tendencies ... meaning his bluff is prob a huge loser vs the population of regulars in the game.

3. if his strategy is 'value shove for 5x pot when i have KKK on a 99x board because he cant fold a nine' he obviously missed a bet and potentially a raise AND he is subtracting a ton of value from the rest of his range as we can extrapolate that his river overbet strategy is to hold the concealed nuts and begin to bluffraise smaller river bets as well as vbet river more aggressively when checked to as well as call smaller river bets with very weak hands.

conclusion: his bet sucks and we should fold and laugh at him

makes sense
thx

I think this a great line villian has for KK. He is in MP and button flats. Villian flops the boat and cbets gets flatted again. Same on turn. Obv hero has a 9 or a monster gut shot straight flush draw. River comes blank, lets see if he donks off his stack with trips?
The problem I have with this hand is, you have no idea where he is and where you are in the hand. You are in position but you smooth called flop and turn with trips and a draw heavy flop. Based on preflop and flop actions by villian, i put him on KK,Axd,Qxd,K9,9x,QJd,Qtd,JTd, or unlikely a overpair or air. Without a reraise by hero, I really cant narrow down his range. Recommend a healthy reraise on flop or turn ( leaning toward turn ) to slow down action and to narrow his range. If he shoves, its a fold for me.

He thinking is probably... I have a good hand.... Me put lots of money inthe middle and hope he calls. End of story --- Fold