100NL 3b pot vs. tag reg

he's running at 23/18
at the time his 3b was not very high, 6%

if he ships in his AK as a 10 out semi-bluff I have OK equity, but he overbet the turn so I'm a little short on equity if my range is correct

Board: 4d 3s 5d 4h

Hand 0: 65.632% { QQ+, AKs, Ad6d, Ad5d, A4s, A2s, AKo }
Hand 1: 34.368% { ThTs }

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($101.45)
Hero (UTG) ($117.25)
MP ($101.50)
Button ($121.55)
SB ($61.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10, 10
Hero bets $4, MP raises to $11, 3 folds, Hero calls $7

Flop: ($23.50) 4, 3, 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $16, Hero calls $16

Turn: ($55.50) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $74.50 (All-In), Hero ?

Originally Posted by iopq

h
Board: 4d 3s 5d 4h

Hand 0: 65.632% { QQ+, AKs, Ad6d, Ad5d, A4s, A2s, AKo }
Hand 1: 34.368% { ThTs }

sure ok its 5-handed, but you think he's 3betting A2-A6ss vs an UTG open? come on now....

These hands kinda tilt me... you need a plan to call this stuff OOP. yah you can say its nitty to fold a hand like 88-TT to a 3bet OOP, but you need some good reads to play these hands properly.

This isn't CO vs Btn, this is UTG vs MP.

What is your fold to 3bet? and your 4bet stat? Might influence villains range for 3betting your UTG open somewhat.

it's an MP vs. CO situation
he doesn't have a good sample on my fold vs. 3b, but I folded to all of his other 3bs before this so that encourages him to 3b me light

my overall fold vs. 3b is 63.4%, my call 3b is 23.8%

meh, I always feel it's spew to even call pf vs certain oppenents when your gonna be oop the entire hand.

Originally Posted by ATOTHEC101

meh, I always feel it's spew to even call pf vs certain oppenents when your gonna be oop the entire hand.

as oppose to be OOP for part of the hand?

Originally Posted by al yell

Originally Posted by ATOTHEC101

meh, I always feel it's spew to even call pf vs certain oppenents when your gonna be oop the entire hand.

as oppose to be OOP for part of the hand?

yeah like when you raise on the button you're OOP preflop, but IP post-flop

ah

ah

wtf, sry.. browser problems.

what about min-raising the Flop?

Originally Posted by al yell

wtf, sry.. browser problems.

what about min-raising the Flop?

are we calling a shove?

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by al yell

wtf, sry.. browser problems.

what about min-raising the Flop?

are we calling a shove?

I realize the efficiency of this move is highly player dependent. And tbh I have no idea how to proceed after min-raising the Flop (part of the reason I asked). I am equally partial to calling the Flop shove or jamming the Turn if called, taking a note on player and adjusting accordingly.

fwiw, I would almost never defend this pf in this position and when I do I'd either fold or raise the Flop. As played I think I fold.

Originally Posted by al yell

fwiw, I would almost never defend this pf in this position and when I do I'd either fold or raise the Flop.

This is a pretty good way to always win the minimum, and lose the most, imo. When you open UTG and villain 3bets you, his range is almost always polarized to very strong hands that will stack off and very weak hands that will snap fold to a 4bet.

This continues on the flop, where villain is cbetting a polarized range. If you are c/raising him with TT here, then he will just snap fold his air and get it in with his very strong range.

i'm glad i mentioned this then. thanks for the breakdown griffey. it's always kind of an encouraging feeling to discover where your thought process is skewed.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Originally Posted by al yell

fwiw, I would almost never defend this pf in this position and when I do I'd either fold or raise the Flop.

This is a pretty good way to always win the minimum, and lose the most, imo. When you open UTG and villain 3bets you, his range is almost always polarized to very strong hands that will stack off and very weak hands that will snap fold to a 4bet.

This continues on the flop, where villain is cbetting a polarized range. If you are c/raising him with TT here, then he will just snap fold his air and get it in with his very strong range.

I agree 100% good post. This spot 5 handed I think plays very close to 6 handed anyway. How are you playing this spot overall Griffy? Here's what I end up doing, but perhaps I'm just doing this as a crutch for sub-par hand-reading.

Versus good taggish villains 5-6% 3bet that are willing to double or get thin value I fold pre, as playing the flop is just going to be an insane guessing game.

Versus aggressive villains with high 3bet 7% I am more likely to play the guessing game, unless I perceive them to be a significantly better player. At one point I was 4betting 1010 versus them, and realized how silly that was considering our positions and his 5betshove range.

Versus tight players I just snapfold pre unless we're deepish.

Digressing a bit, I also have 3bet % for each player for each position (Minus UTG). One thing I noticed if you add a positional 3bet stat is that for SOME players a MP 3bet is a HUGE red flag. Even some don't 3bet from the CO much. They have say an 8% 3bet range but they do almost all the 3betting OTB, and in the blinds... and their MP 3bet is like 2%, but ppl think he's doing it all wide. Then you'll find the guy with like 12% BB 3betting, who you can print money vs. by 4betting. Obviously we notice all these things without stats, but it helps me pick ranges a lot

I think you should just fold the flop. Some are probably going to come in and say fold preflop but i think set mining + the times he c/f's with AK or AQ make up for it.

You can't call turn because his bluffs dont have 100% weighting while AA-JJ do. Meaning, its easy to say he'd play JJ-AA this way 100% of the time, but its hard to say that he'd play AK or AQ fd or not this way 100% of the time.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

I think you should just fold the flop. Some are probably going to come in and say fold preflop but i think set mining + the times he c/f's with AK or AQ make up for it.

You can't call turn because his bluffs dont have 100% weighting while AA-JJ do. Meaning, its easy to say he'd play JJ-AA this way 100% of the time, but its hard to say that he'd play AK or AQ fd or not this way 100% of the time.

hmm interesting, that goes against what people say about "lol if you call a 3b and fold flop it's a hudge leak" or whatnot

mix - It might be nitty, but I'm probably just often folding this pre. If I thought he was 3betting me light, I might be more inclined to flat a big hand KK+ OOP here, and 4bet bluff vs him a bit more. Just knowing myself, I know I'd stack off way too much calling TT pre, so I just avoid it. It might work better for other people.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

You can't call turn because his bluffs dont have 100% weighting while AA-JJ do. Meaning, its easy to say he'd play JJ-AA this way 100% of the time, but its hard to say that he'd play AK or AQ fd or not this way 100% of the time.

I see what you're saying here, and I definitely agree. Though, I find it hard to imagine a situation where someone's bluffing % WILL be 100%? Or is that not relevant? hmmm

Yeah in establishing ranged I dont count all hand combinations of possible bluffs. Ie. if i get 3 bet pre i might plug in A2d and A3d but not A4d and A5d for stove. I'm talking about live play with friends not fishy micros btw.